September Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Quick Market Summary: We’ve gone through the historically hottest part of the year where a higher wave of buyer activity (demand) comes knocking. Now, we are in the summer months with many potential buyers in vacation mode so the activity is less intense EXCEPT for this year! With low inventory and enticingly low mortgage rates, we’ve seen a very brisk summer market. In August, inventory of available homes for sale remained anemic in each county. Median prices continue to set records — in Santa Clara County it was $1,150,000 and $1,423,000 in San Mateo County. Even though these levels have drifted slightly lower the past couple of months, they represent record median prices for this time of year in the Silicon Valley real estate market. It's always better to compare year over year results as it removes the seasonality aspect. The Santa Clara County median price for condos/townhouses is $760,000. Demand continues to outstrip supply in Santa Clara County as 74% of homes that closed escrow sold for more than list price inferring multiple offers and was 80% in San Mateo County. Historically, we see a higher level of interest from buyers post-Labor Day that lasts for a month or so. I expect higher prices.

Nuts and Bolts: Inventory or the amount of homes available for purchase in Santa Clara County was just 723 down from 834 last month and down from 1,278 the same month last year or 43.4%! Sales (accepted offers) were 1,131 down from 1,146 last month but increased slightly from 1,118 the same month last year. Closed sales were interesting — they were 919 in August but only 832 last year, an increase of 10.5%. That busts the myth that sales are constrained by a lack of inventory as what we witnessed was a turnover rate faster than at any time in the last 20 years!

For San Mateo County, inventory of single family residences stood at 330, up slightly from 319 last month with sales (accepted offers) at 393 an increase from 366 last month. For both counties, the inventory continues to lag well below the average for this time of the year placing pressure on buyers as evidenced in the predominance of multiple offer situations and heated competition between buyers to enter the market.

Sale price to list price ratio, a key market condition indicator, shows that for Santa Clara County transactions completed during August this ratio stood at 106.4% and the highest ever for this time of year! Currently, the highest ratio and the hottest market area belong to the Cupertino/Sunnyvale market area (median price of about $1.90 million) at 114.0% which means that the average closed sale has a sale price 14% higher than the list price. It also registered the lowest median days on market at just 8 which means half the inventory sells in 8 days! The coolest market area is Los Gatos/Saratoga (median price of about $2.55 million). However, even the coolest market area in Santa Clara County is still pretty good with Los Gatos currently more active than Saratoga.

San Mateo County’s overall sale price to list price ratio stands at an even higher level of 109.1% with the highest ratio and hottest market area in the Bay Cities (Belmont, Burlingame, Millbrae, San Carlos, San Mateo) market area (median price of about $1.60 million) at 110.7% with a median days on market of 11. The coolest market area are the Expensive (Atherton, Menlo Park, Portola Valley, Woodside, Hillsborough) market area, (median price of about $3.00 million) and the San Mateo Coast (Half Moon Bay, El Granada, Moss Beach, Montara) (median price of about $1.29 million.

As always, market dynamics change and the supply and demand relationships can vary by area. If you would like specific market condition information for your area or neighborhood or a current home valuation, please feel free to call me, your Remax Agent! You are welcome to leave your comments or questions or contact me directly. Check out and "like" my Facebook Business Page at Facebook Business Page (I'm trying for 1,000 likes!) or follow me on Twitter at Twitter Page. Thank you.

August Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Quick Market Summary: We’ve gone through the historically hottest part of the year where a higher wave of buyer activity (demand) comes knocking. Now, we are in the summer months with many potential buyers in vacation mode so the activity is less intense. We continue to have buyer interest and activity but it is countered by continued low inventory. In July, inventory of available homes for sale remained anemic in each county. Median prices continue to set records — in Santa Clara County it was $1,168,000 and $1,600,000 in San Mateo County. Even though these levels have drifted slightly lower, they represent record median prices for this time of year in the Silicon Valley real estate market. Demand continues to outstrip supply in Santa Clara County as 74% of homes that closed escrow sold for more than list price inferring multiple offers. Same proportion in San Mateo County. Post Labor Day, we’ll see even more buyer activity so would expect prices to remain strong.

Nuts and Bolts: Inventory or the amount of homes available for purchase in Santa Clara County was just 834 with sales (accepted offers) of 1,146. In this measure, a downtrend in inventory levels continues in force since 2012!

For San Mateo County, inventory of single family residences stood at 319 with sales (accepted offers) at 366. For both counties, the inventory continues to lag below the average for this time of the year placing pressure on buyers as evidenced in the predominance of multiple offer situations and heated competition between buyers.

Sale price to list price ratio, a key market condition indicator, shows that for Santa Clara County transactions completed during July, this ratio stood at 105.5% and among the highest for this time of year over the past 17 years! Currently, the highest ratio and the hottest market area belong to the Cupertino/Sunnyvale market area (median price of about $1.90 million) at 111.5%. It also registered the lowest median days on market at just 8 which means half the inventory sells in less than 8 days! The coolest market area is South County (Morgan Hill/Gilroy) (median price of about $0.80 million).

San Mateo County’s overall sale price to list price ratio stands at an even higher level of 108.5% with the highest ratio and hottest market area in the Bay Cities (Belmont, Burlingame, Millbrae, San Carlos, San Mateo) market area (median price of about $1.70 million) at 112.0%. The coolest market area is the Expensive (Atherton, Menlo Park, Portola Valley, Woodside, Hillsborough) market area, (median price of about $3.33 million).

As always, market dynamics change and the supply and demand relationships can vary by area. If you would like specific market condition information for your area or neighborhood or a current home value, please feel free to call me, your Remax Agent! You are welcome to leave your comments or questions or contact me directly. Thank you.

World Class Chocolates and More in the Valley of Hearts Delight

You've made dinner reservations at a romantic restaurant (I did at Pezzela's Villa Napoli Restaurant in Sunnyvale, CA) and you might have picked up a little something for her at her favorite store, perhaps even some nice long-stems. Of course, there's always sweets for your sweets for Valentine's Day.


Here is a selection of some world class chocolatiers from Palo Alto, Sunnyvale, Saratoga, Los Gatos and Santa Cruz:


Chocolate Dream Box - Handcrafted European style chocolates specializing in gifts for holidays such as Valentine's Day

* 710 Blossom Hill Road, Los Gatos. 408-356-2626


Fleur e Cocoa Patisserie Chocolaterie - Offering cakes, pastries, chocolates, light lunch & more

39 N. Santa Cruz Avenue, Los Gatos. 408-354-3574


Richard Donnelly Chocolates - Handmade, award winning chocolates

* 1509 Mission Street, Santa Cruz. 888-685-1871


Saratoga Chocolates
* 14572-B Big Basin Way, Saratoga. 408-872-1431


Chocolatier Desiree - Featuring Belgian chocolates

* 165 S. Murphy Avenue, #C, Sunnyvale, CA 94086 408-306-3127


Shokolaat - Fine dining with a special Valentine's Day menu

* 516 University Avenue, Palo Alto. 650-289-0719


Sugar Butter Flour - Desserts, chocolates & more

* 669 S. Bernardo Avenue, Sunnyvale. 408-732-8597





How About Wine with Chocolate? Selections from Los Gatos and San Jose...

Testarossa Vineyards
Testarossa Vineyards (formerly Novitiate of Los Gatos Winery) is hosting a wine, cheese and chocolate tasting on Saturday, February 11th from 11:00am to 4:00pm. Reservations strongly recommended at 408-354-6150 x21 or email tastingroom@testarossa.com.

J. Lohr Winery
Wine and Chocolate Tasting Lunches, Friday and Saturday, February 11th & 12th as well as a Valentine's Day Chocolate Dinner on February 14th are unfortunately SOLD OUT. Keep them in mind for another day/year!




Happy Valentine's Day!

January Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Comments

Here are my observations of the most recent December transactions for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website.

> General Market Observations and Comments -- The amount of homes (single family and condos and townhouses) available for sale continued their downwards trend in December. The most interesting thing about this trend toward fewer homes on the market is twofold: one, this occurs every year but this time the level is at its lowest since 2005; and two, the portion of lender-controlled homes (short sale and bank-owned) has diminished. Inventory, or the number of homes available for sale (supply) resembles what it was in December 2005. Many of will recall that the real estate market was super active then with almost no lender-controlled listings.

Still the case is a bifurcated market condition. Homes available for sale have a median days on market of about 70 days whereas those homes that closed escrow have a median days on market of less than 35 days. Homes priced well and in good condition, sell quickly and get the most activity (i.e., higher prices, quicker sale). Overpriced homes or those in poor locations or in poor condition (bank-owned or short sale homes are mainly in this category) stay on the market far longer.

Mortgage rates remain very favorable for buyers in the range in the high 3% to low 4% area. Since most buyers need a loan to purchase a home, mortgage rates are a major consideration in the decision and ability of the buyers to purchase. Even with lowered sales figures, escrow companies seem to be busy with loan refinance or refi activity. I've advised those buyers who purchased last year to refinance their "low" 4 3/4% loans and lock in a high-3% loan rate for the long haul.

For December, median price for single family residences, half above and half below or the middle transaction, stood at $530,000, a slight decrease from November and down about 1% from December 2010. Not too much you can make of this as the mix of homes is in constant change mode. Better to look at a smaller area or even neighborhood to get an idea of the price trends. When you do this analysis of various areas, we find prices actually increased a bit in a range of 4-8%!

Got that "love" note from your landlord or property manager yet? Rents have been impacted by demand from those who lost homes to foreclosure, new family formations and an improved employment picture in Silicon Valley. So much so that rents have increased about 12-15% from last year. Any end in sight? I don't think so as available homes to rent which has been steady in recent times will go up a bit as there are some developments of apartments going. The amount is insufficient to offset the increased demand that has and is taking place. Time for investors? That's what I've been saying for a while now.


Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.

July Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Comments

Here are my observations of the most recent June transactions for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website.

> General Market Observations and Comments -- Closings continue to increase in both counties but the level remains below the average of the past ten Junes. The "market" seems like it is bipolar. There is one portion of well-priced, good condition homes that sell quickly and those others which are over-priced or have other issues like poor condition that linger on the market for a long time. Inventory, or the number of homes available for sale (supply) has increased but it, too, continues to grow at a slower rate than the ten-year average.

Buyer demand continues to point to single family residences (SFR) and away from condos/townhouses. This is especially evident for First Time Buyers as well as Investors. About a third of all transactions are for all cash. I continue to advise buyers that if there is a preference for the life-style of a condo or townhouse, there are better buys possible and buyers can have more advantages than sellers. Yes, condos and townhouses have homeowner association dues, of course, that often cover additional ownership features and benefits (e.g., utilities, pool/spa, exercise rooms, and the like) but the owner doesn't have to worry about mowing the lawn!

Of the 1,128 Santa Clara County single family homes that closed escrow in June, 50% sold in 22 days! One of my closings last month was a Sunnyvale home on the market just six days. It sold comfortably above list price. Another of my closings, a Santa Clara home in a nice neighborhood sold in about a month for 6% under list price.

The northwest quadrant of Santa Clara County continued to be the hottest market area, as was the case last month. The area comprises the cities of Mountain View, Los Altos and Palo Alto. This area had the lowest DUI reading in Santa Clara County of just 37 days, clearly a seller's market. Next door, Sunnyvale and Cupertino had a DUI of 50, balanced to seller's market. Some of us are calling this the "Facebook" effect. By contrast, the DUI for the expensive Los Altos Hills is 153, clearly indicating a buyer's market.

Days of unsold inventory (DUI) for Santa Clara County by price range is interesting. Overall, the DUI reading was 60, up slightly from last month of 58. The DUI for homes priced under $450,000 was just 35 days; those priced from $450,000-600,000 was 59 days; those priced from $600,000-750,000 was 74 days; from $750,000 to $1 million was 66 days; from $1.0 million to $2.5 million was 74 days; from $2.5 million to $5.0 million jumped to 225 days and finally, those priced above $5.0 million was 1,330 days! Clearly, the higher priced homes in both counties may have to undergo more aggressive price concessions to move in this bipolar market environment. One of my clients leased a new, never-been-lived-in Hillsborough home a bit more than two years old that the owner tried to sell ever since he completed the construction. List price was $4.8 million and the home never had a price adjustment during the entire time on the market!

Days of Unsold Inventory is an indicator I use to gauge whether the market is a Buyer's market, Seller's market or what we call a Balanced market. In Santa Clara County, the Buyer's market are for those areas above 90 DUI a Seller's market would have a DUI reading under 45. Balanced markets are those in between.

Mortgage rates remain very favorable in the range in the high 4% to about 5% range. Since most buyers need a loan to purchase a home, mortgage rates are a major consideration in the decision and ability of the buyers to purchase.

Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.

World Class Chocolates in the Valley of Hearts Delight

You've made dinner reservations at a romantic restaurant (I did at Birk's Restaurant in Santa Clara, CA) and you might have picked up a little something for her at her favorite store, perhaps even some nice long-stems. Of course, there's always sweets for your sweets for Valentine's Day.


Here is a selection of some world class chocolatiers from Palo Alto, Sunnyvale, Saratoga, Los Gatos and Santa Cruz:


Chocolate Dream Box - Handcrafted European style chocolates specializing in gifts for holidays such as Valentine's Day

* 710 Blossom Hill Road, Los Gatos. 408-356-2626


Fleur e Cocoa Patisserie Chocolaterie - Offering cakes, pastries, chocolates, light lunch & more

39 N. Santa Cruz Avenue, Los Gatos. 408-354-3574


Richard Donnelly Chocolates - Handmade, award winning chocolates

* 1509 Mission Street, Santa Cruz. 888-685-1871


Saratoga Chocolates
* 14572-B Big Basin Way, Saratoga. 408-872-1431


Chocolatier Desiree - Featuring Belgian chocolates

* 165 South Murphy Avenue, #C, Sunnyvale, CA 94086 408-289-1562


Shokolaat - Fine dining with a special Valentine's Day menu

* 516 University Avenue, Palo Alto. 650-289-0719


Sugar Butter Flour - Desserts, chocolates & more

* 669 S. Bernardo Avenue, Sunnyvale. 408-732-8597





How About Wine with Chocolate? Selections from Los Gatos and San Jose...

Testarossa Vineyards
Testarossa Vineyards (formerly Novitiate Winery) is hosting a wine and chocolate pairing event on Saturday, February 12th and Sunday, February 13th from 12:00pm to 4:00pm. Check their details on their website.

J. Lohr Winery
Brunch Sunday, February 13th catered by Jeffreys 11:00am - 1:00pm




Happy Valentine's Day!

January Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights

Here are the highlights of December transactions and market comments for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website.

> Market Overview -- The last several months has seen a continual decrease in the amount of sales in both counties, an indicator of slowing markets and something we see each year as we enter the fall and holiday season. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County jumped a bit from last month to 904 but was 3.6% lower than the same month a year ago. For San Mateo County, closings were 370, up 3.9% from November 2009. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:

* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory), which was increasing later in the year (far longer than in most years), has now reversed course and is following historical trends in both counties. We did see a significant drop this month as many listings have expirations dated in December, especially December 31st! Having a listing expire so late in the year is a poor strategy that will likely set sellers up to lose (more?) money. Against this backdrop, the market remains more positive in Santa Clara County than in San Mateo County. However, inventory levels were about 41%higher in Santa Clara County and 36% higher in San Mateo County than the same month a year ago.

* 40% of sellers in Santa Clara County get at least list price for their single family homes! In San Mateo County, the corresponding percentage is a bit over 31%. This is another indicator that the overall market remains stronger in Santa Clara County. Also, these indicators have drifted lower and underscore a slowing market in both counties -- usual though for this time of year.

* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI), after a recent upswing has resumed a move lower. If this trend continues, it could portend a market that is gaining strength and could point to more positive market conditions next year. We watch this important indicator closely. As we have discussed, DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio and represents a calculation using both supply and demand. A higher figure for DUI, then, means the market is becoming weaker. For December, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 77 for SFR's, 88 for condos/townhouses and 128 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 106 for SFR's, 140 for condos/townhouses and an even higher number of 358 for multi-unit properties. Once again, all readings continue to point to a more positive market for Santa Clara County.

> Seller Markets? -- For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are East Valley, Central San Jose and South San Jose, and the South County area comprising the cities of Morgan Hill and Gilroy. For San Mateo County, there were NO hot markets! A seller's market has shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers with a tendency to have multiple offers and sale prices generally exceeding list prices with a potential of price appreciation.

> Buyer's Markets? -- For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Saratoga, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Almaden Valley (SJ) and Sunnyvale. Saratoga is my current "Best Buy" area in the county. For San Mateo County, we see buyer's markets in Menlo Park, Atherton, Belmont, Burlingame, Redwood City, Foster City/Redwood Shores and especially the San Mateo Coast cities. What makes a "buyers" market is the relationship of supply to demand -- simply put as higher supply and lower demand. The characteristics of a buyer's market is a longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even price depreciation.

Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).

> Median prices have moved lower in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties -- The median price for SFR's in Santa Clara County which has mainly remained flat to slightly nudging upwards for several months has decreased again. It now stands at $559,000, versus $590,000, or an 5.3% decrease from last month and a decrease of 0.9% from the same month a year ago. The median price for condos/townhouses climbed to $335,000, up 6.0%from last month but decreased 6.2% from the same month last year. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $719,500, down 0.5% from last month and down 4.1% from the same month a year ago. The median price for San Mateo County condo/townhouses was $370,000, down 10.8% from last month and down 18.9% from the same month last year. I continue to advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market as market areas within each county differ. Ask me to provide you with how your area compares.

> Buyers now paying 10% higher prices! -- Since the rate of which buyers will receive from mortgage lenders has risen of late to 5%, that's the equivalent of at least a 10% increase in the price of the home! To put another way, if a buyer was preapproved for a purchase of $500,000 a few months ago and decided to wait, they would now be looking at something closer to a $450,000 home because of the increase in the monthly payment.

Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to arm you with market intelligence to help you make a better, more-informed decision.


Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.

October Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights

Here are the highlights of September transactions and market comments for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. You may leave comments here, or contact me through my website.

> Market Overview -- The last four months has shown a general decline in the amount of sales. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County decreased and are at levels just below those seen in either September of 2009 and September 2008 but above the level seen in September 2007. Same holds true for San Mateo County which saw a lower level for the past three months. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:

* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) is trending upwards in both counties these past nine months which is usual for this time of the year. However, the rate of increase has slowed significantly in Santa Clara County and is well below record levels. San Mateo County inventory, while also trending higher for the past nine months, is close to record levels. The market overall remains more positive in Santa Clara County.

* More than 40% of sellers in Santa Clara County get at least list price for their homes! In San Mateo County, the corresponding percentage is a bit over 30%. This is another indicator that the overall market remains stronger in Santa Clara County. Also, these indicators have drifted lower and underscore a slowing market in both counties -- usual for this time of year.

* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues an upward trend translating into a slowing market. However, as we enter October, we've seen a reversal of direction so we'll have to see if it continues. As we have discussed, DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio and represents a calculation using both supply and demand. A higher figure for DUI, then, means the market is becoming weaker. For September, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 74 for SFR, 88 for condos/townhouses and 172 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 104 for SFR's and 140 for condos/townhouses. Notice that all readings were more positive for Santa Clara County.

> Seller Markets? -- For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, East Valley (SJ), Milpitas, Evergreen Valley (SJ) and Cupertino. I very-recently listed a Cupertino home in the Monta Vista High School attendance area and had some 250 people through for the two open houses. It generated multiple offers with a sale price exceeding list price. A seller's market has shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers with a tendency to have multiple offers and sale prices generally exceeding list prices with a potential of price appreciation.

> Buyer's Markets? -- For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos, Almaden Valley (SJ), Saratoga, Campbell, and Willow Glen (SJ). Los Gatos is my current "Best Buy" area in the county. What makes a "buyers" market is the relationship of supply to demand -- simply put as higher supply and lower demand. The characteristics of a buyer's market is a longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even price depreciation.

Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).

> Median prices drop a bit -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's decreased slightly after five months of increase this year. It stands at about $625,000. The median price for condos/townhouses dipped a bit more in percentage terms. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's has dropped to just above $700,000 from the $790,000 level. I continue to advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration.

> Boo! Buyers get ready -- Historically, a good time to buy is approximately at the time of Halloween or a bit after. I don't see it any different this year. As we enter the early holiday period just before Thanksgiving, those homes on the market, in all likelihood, have to be sold by their owners.

Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to arm you with market intelligence to help you make a better, more-informed decision.


Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.

June Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights

Here are the highlights of May's transactions and market comments for Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. Your comments and questions are welcome. If you have an update as to what you are witnessing in your neighborhood, please don't hesitate to share with us. You may leave comments here, or contact me through my website.

> Market Overview -- It's been over a year since we called the bottom of the real estate market in Santa Clara County -- March-April 2009. Since then we've seen a steady improvement in market conditions and this remains more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County increased to 1,230 from 975 last month and was up 23.7% from the same month a year ago. San Mateo County also saw higher SFR closings at 418 from 344 last month and was up 28.6% from the same month a year ago. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:

* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) is trending upwards in both counties these past few months which is usual. What is not usual is that while the inventory in Santa Clara County is 12.7% lower than the same month a year ago, the inventory in San Mateo is 10.1% higher.

* Headline you don't see in the San Jose Mercury News -- "HALF OF HOME SELLERS GET MORE THAN LIST PRICE FOR THEIR HOMES!" The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% and stands at 100.9% in Santa Clara County and 100.0% for San Mateo County. Big news continues in the percent of closings where sale price exceeded list price -- Santa Clara County was 48.2% and San Mateo County increased to 40.9%. This indicates that the overall market remains stronger in Santa Clara County.

* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to show improvement -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio and represents a calculation using both supply and demand. A lower figure for DUI, then, means improvement. For May, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 61 for SFR, 73 for condos/townhouses and 167 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 89 for SFR's and 100 for condos/townhouses.

> HOT Markets? -- For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, East Valley, Santa Teresa, North Valley and Evergreen Valley areas of San Jose. For San Mateo County, the hottest markets are those bay-side cities of Belmont, San Carlos, Redwood City and San Mateo. A seller's market has shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers with a tendency to have multiple offers and sale prices generally exceeding list prices and the potential of price appreciation.

> Cool Markets? -- We call them buyer's markets but everything is relative, right? For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos, Saratoga and the Willow Glen portion of San Jose. Saratoga and Willow Glen with Los Gatos/Monte Sereno are my current "Best Buy" areas in the county. In San Mateo County, besides the more expensive areas, there are buyer's markets in the coastal communities like Pacifica and Half Moon Bay. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even depreciation.

Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).

> Median prices jump in Santa Clara County -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's jumped to $630,000 versus $490,000 or 29% increase from May 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $383,500 or 24% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $750,000, 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks to sell newspapers! However, I advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients of the appropriate strategy to employ to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.

> Friday Before Memorial Day -- What's so significant about that date? Well, looking back over the last 15 years or so, Santa Clara County's real estate market usually peaks for the year in terms of activity levels and also generally in prices, as well. So far, we have a May peak this year as activity levels have eroded into June thus far so we'll see.

> What a change from a year ago in the market! -- Last year at this time saw 49% of the closings in Santa Clara County being distress sales (bank-owned and short sales or lender-controlled transactions). This year, just 28% are that type! Normal transactions accounted for 51% of the total last year and 72% this year.

> Why do newspapers always report lower prices for the area? They use DataQuick services which scans ALL transactions even though there's no money changing hands like in the case of family to family transfers, divorce settlements, etc. My calculations are based solely on arm's-length transactions through our Multiple Listing Service or MLS.

Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you make a better, more-informed decision.


Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.

May Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights

Here are the highlights of April's transactions and market comments for Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. Your comments and questions are welcome. If you have an update as to what you are witnessing in your neighborhood, please don't hesitate to share with us. You may leave comments here, or contact me through my website.

> Market Overview -- It's been over a year since we called the bottom of the real estate market in Santa Clara County -- March-April 2009. Since then we've seen pretty much a steady improvement in market conditions and this is more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County increased to 975 from 917 last month and was up 7% from the same month a year ago. San Mateo County also saw higher SFR closings at 344 compared to 294 in the same month a year ago. Higher activity levels and more buyers willing to make the decision to purchase is what we're finding. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:

* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) has trended upwards these past few months after more than a year of continual decline. This is taking place in both counties. However, the levels still remain substantially below the year ago levels. Santa Clara County inventory of available SFR's increased 7% from last month and San Mateo County's inventory increased 16%.

* Headline you don't see in the San Jose Mercury News -- "HALF OF HOME SELLERS GET MORE THAN LIST PRICE FOR THEIR HOMES!" The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% and stands at 101.0% in Santa Clara County and 99.2% for San Mateo County. Big news continues in the percent of closings where sale price exceeded list price -- Santa Clara County was 48.6% and San Mateo County was 37.8%. This indicates the overall market is stronger in Santa Clara County.

* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to show improvement -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio, where a higher number means improvement. Whereas a lower figure for DUI means improvement. For April, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 43 for SFR, 48 for condos/townhouses and 72 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 44 for SFR's, 57 for condos/townhouses and 83 for multi-unit properties.

> HOT Markets? -- You bet and there are more of them, too! For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are Santa Teresa, Cupertino, North Valley, East Valley, South San Jose, Santa Clara, Milpitas, and Sunnyvale. For San Mateo County, the hottest markets are those bay-side cities of Belmont, San Carlos, Redwood City and San Mateo. The characteristics of a seller's market are shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers which translates into a higher probability of multiple offers, sale prices generally exceeding list prices and a tendency towards price appreciation.

> Cool Markets? -- Yes, but there are fewer of them. For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Willow Glen, Saratoga. Los Gatos/Monte Sereno is my current "Best Buy" area in the county. In San Mateo County, besides the more expensive areas, there are buyer's markets in the coastal communities. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even depreciation.

Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).

> Median prices jump in Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's jumped to $630,000 versus $470,000 or 34% increase from April 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $342,500 or 28% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $754,000, 24% higher than the same month a year ago. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks to sell newspapers! However, I advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients of the appropriate strategy to employ to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.

> Crazy Silicon Valley! -- If you told someone in most areas of the country that one-half of all closings are sold above list price, AND that the average sold price to list price ratio is 101% AND that 50% of closings sold within 20 days, they'd think you were crazy!

> Two-thirds of closings are regular transactions -- last year the figure was just 45%. Those REO-only agents have seen an average overall drop of about 65% in their business activity in a year.

> Bottom-Line Santa Clara County Market Analysis -- When you have about 1,000 closings of SFR homes out of an available inventory of about 2,500 or 40%, that's a HOT market!

Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you make a better, more-informed decision.


Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.

World Class Chocolates in the Valley of Hearts Delight

You've made dinner reservations at a romantic restaurant (I did at Birk's Restaurant in Santa Clara, CA) and you might have picked up a little something for her at her favorite store, perhaps even some nice long-stems. Of course, there's always sweets for your sweets for Valentine's Day.


Here are some world class chocolatiers from Silicon Valley to Santa Cruz:


Chocolate Dream Box



* 710 Blossom Hill Road, Los Gatos. 408-356-2626

Pictured are hand-crafted chocolates in beautiful boxes by Chocolate Dream Box

Fleur e Cocoa Patisserie Chocolaterie



39 N. Santa Cruz Avenue, Los Gatos. 408-354-3574

Pictured are selected handmade chocolates from Fleur de Cocoa


Richard Donnelly Chocolates

* 1509 Mission Street, Santa Cruz. 888-685-1871


Saratoga Chocolates

* 14572-B Big Basin Way, Saratoga. 408-872-1431


Chocolatier Desiree

* 165 South Murphy Avenue, #C, Sunnyvale, CA 94086 408-289-1562


Shokolaat

* 516 University Avenue, Palo Alto. 650-289-0719


Sugar Butter Flour

* 669 S. Bernardo Avenue, Sunnyvale. 408-732-8597



Pictured is Dark Chocolate Ganache Truffle from Sugar Butter Flour



How About Wine with Chocolate?

Testarossa Vineyards

Testarossa Vineyards (formerly Novitiate Winery) is hosting a wine and chocolate pairing event on Saturday, February 13th and February 14th from 12:00am to 4:00pm. Check their details on their website. Cost is $10.00 per person.

J. Lohr Winery

Saturday, February 13th at 7:30pm

Explore different tastes, textures and aromas of Snake & Butterfly homemade, organic chocolate paired with six different J. Lohr wines. Tickets must be paid for in advance, check details on their website. Cost is $10.00 per person.


Happy Valentine's Day!

November Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights

Here are my observations of October's transactions and market actions for Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties. You are encouraged to leave your comments and questions or even update us on what you are witnessing in your neighborhood or area.

> Market continues showing strength and improvement -- Market activity has continued to display improvement for six months! For instance, in Santa Clara County, October saw an 18% increase in closings over the same month last year. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:

* Buyers continue to trip over each other to submit offers for homes in the more affordable areas of Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties. Many offers submitted are for all cash or have substantial down payments. There are still only 22 days of unsold inventory on single family residences in Santa Clara County with a price of under $450,000! For those in the range of $450,000 to $600,000, there is only 33 days of unsold inventory. It is similar in San Mateo County.
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) continues to trend lower in each of the four counties without exception. This trend has been virtually uninterrupted since February 2009 and it is still more pronounced in Santa Clara and Monterey counties.
* The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% in Santa Clara County and stands at 100.8%, continuing an upward trend; San Mateo stands at 99.3%.
* The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to improve generally in each county for single family residences and condos/townhouses, respectively. Santa Clara's DUI stands at 47 and 44, San Mateo's DUI is 69 and 77, Santa Cruz's DUI is 108 and 105 and Monterey's DUI is 70 and 83.

> Super-heated Seller's Markets? -- You bet! East Valley, South San Jose, Blossom Valley, Evergreen, Santa Teresa, Santa Clara, North Valley, Milpitas. To refresh you, characteristics of a seller's market are shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher probability of multiple offers with many sale prices exceeding list prices and a tendency towards price appreciation.

> Buyer's Markets? -- For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Saratoga, Los Gatos, and Los Gatos Mountains. Los Gatos exhibits the highest Days of Unsold Inventory in the county at 141. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower probability of multiple offers or even an offer with most sale prices below list price. The tendency is to have price depreciation or stable prices at best case under this market condition.

Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion thing but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI). Additionally, this is not based on price levels but a supply-demand relationship. For instance, the higher-priced area of Palo Alto/Mountain View/Los Altos exhibits a DUI of only 56 which translates into a balanced market.

> Median prices -- Took another jump upwards last month median price now stands at $593,250 for Santa Clara County and $702,000 for San Mateo County. These are UP about 8% from the same month a year ago in Santa Clara County and down 1% in San Mateo Ccounty. I coach my clients to no use an entire county's median price level to decide on whether to buy or sell. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics on a much smaller area down to the neighborhood in most cases.

> Tale of Two Markets -- Sales of affordable homes in Santa Clara County less than $450,000 level have gotten even hotter than the past few months. There are just 21 days of unsold inventory for single family residences below $450,000 and 41 for homes with prices from $450,000 to $600,000. As the price ranges increase, the DUI increases in what we call a normal pattern. For Santa Clara County, high-priced homes in the $2,500,000 to $5,000,000 range showed a DUI of 242 or about eight months of supply whereas in San Mateo County showed a similar result of 192.

> Polarized Market -- Sales of higher-priced homes (above $1,000,000) are sluggish at best, depending upon area. Last month, there were no sales of $5+ million homes in Santa Clara County and just one in San Mateo County (4.2 years of unsold inventory). With slow movements in higher-priced homes and a white-hot situation in lower-priced homes, I call this a polarized market.

> Forbes Says We're Safe -- According to an article in the Silicon Valley Business Journal, Forbes Magazine reported that San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara was the 7th safest area in the country. Factors included were: violent crime, workplace fatality rates, traffic death rates and natural disaster risk. Silicon Valley was the second safest area behind the Twin Cities of Minneapolis-St. Paul.

> Sellers Be Sooner -- I continue to maintain my recommendation for sellers of higher-priced homes, especially those above $1 million that they should consider selling sooner and having an initially more-aggressive list price as the market usually softens when we go move into the holiday season. In any case, check with a Realtor knowledgeable about the technical aspects of the market conditions to guide you in positioning your home for maximum activity and price while minimizing time on market.

For those considering a purchase of a home in an expensive area like Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Saratoga, your time is getting closer! Be ready but I think we'll see list prices reduced and sale prices dropping as we get into the holiday season this year. Most years we experience more activity in the early spring and spring so the best time for a purchase is coming up soon!

> Investor's Corner -- Activity continues to trend upwards as more and more investors reenter the market, many of them are completing all cash purchases, especially in the more affordable price ranges. For Santa Clara County, there were 88 sales during the month with 47 of them in the less than $600,000 price range as that price range had a DUI of just 37 whereas the DUI for residential investment properties above $600,000 jumps to nearly a year. For investors who have the ability to purchase higher-priced properties (above $1,000,000), there is about one year of unsold inventory at current sales demand and represents a BUYER'S market as I'm sure there are at least some motivated sellers in that range.


Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have.

Real Eats -- La Paloma Restaurante, Santa Clara, CA

Have you ever wondered why you gravitate back to certain restaurants? Well, that's just what happened last weekend when my wife and I were hungry for La Paloma in Santa Clara. Patrons for more than 25 years, we enjoy the good value, authenticity as well as the great taste.

We usually start off with a simple side salad instead of appetizers as their chips and salsa are very good! Next -- what to have for dinner?

Since we're eating lighter, we opted for fish. My wife chose the Grilled Salmon Filet off of their regular menu. At $13.50, it included a fresh salmon filet that was char-grilled and served with your choice of our tangy tomatillo avocado salsa, or topped with their fresh mango salsa. Carol chose the mango salsa which she said was excellent. The dinner also included grilled garden vegetables, rice, and jalapeño tartar sauce.

For my dinner, I ordered the Char-grilled Red Snapper off of their specials menu. It too was $13.50, and was served over a tomatillo-avocado salsa and came with rice and beans which I asked to switch the beans with grilled garden veggies. The fish was perfectly flaked done and tasted wonderfully with the salsa and accompaniments. I chose one of their margaritas to top off the dinner. The margarita, I prefer them frozen and with salt, tasted great and was of great value.

Dessert -- who has room for any dessert? We passed on dessert as the dinner with the salad, chips and salsa was more than ample! Highly recommended.

La Paloma Restaurante
2280 El Camino Real
Santa Clara, CA 95050

(408) 247-0990


If you'd like to enjoy great food and service at fine restaurants and obtain a discount in the process, please give me a call and I'll let you know how you can get a complimentary Passport Unlimited card.

I encourage you to leave a comment. Be sure to mention what your favorite restaurants are. Thanks for reading!

January Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

This information summary and analysis uses MLS Listings Inc. (MLS) transactional data for December 2008. For single family homes in Santa Clara County, December saw an increase in closings of 38% from December 2007; closings of condos/townhouses saw an increase of 10% in the same period. For single family residences, there were 676 closings in the month with 876 initiated sales (accepted offers). As you know, not all accepted offers result in a closing. Closings of single family homes also increased in San Mateo and Monterey counties whereas Santa Cruz County saw a slight drop. A positive aspect to the market for this time of year -- closings increased from November to December. This is the first time that has happened since 2001. Normally, we see a decrease in closings through December.

Inventory of available single family homes in Santa Clara County was 3,926, down from 4,622 last month and also down 3% from the same month last year. Similarly, San Mateo, Santa Cruz and Monterey counties showed trends toward lower inventory levels. Much of the decrease has to do with expiring listings at December 31st. I expect we will see increased inventory as sellers will relist their homes and banks will resume foreclosure activity that will result in more bank-owned homes coming on the market.


Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) or the intersection of the inventory (supply) with the recent sales level (demand), shows Santa Clara County at 147 for single family residences and 187 for condos/townhouses, modest increases from last month. San Mateo County is at 160 and 171, respectively. Santa Cruz County has a DUI reading of 215 and 235, respectively. Monterey County showed DUI at 129 and 190, respectively, and is the only county where this indicator has improved from November. Please remember that a lower figure is good here and that a declining measure represents an improvement in the market. Clearly, these levels continue to indicate a buyer's market condition as a reading of DUI of 90 or above depicts. As a comparison, a seller's market will have a DUI of less than 45 and a balanced market will have a DUI between the two. Keep in mind that these are county-wide averages and some areas historically have different levels. The wider area you measure, the statistics are less reliable as a decision tool for any specific area or neighborhood and also that there is often an incredible variation between those areas experiencing terrible market conditions compared to those that are stable. That's why I've mentioned that those statistics presented in newspaper and online articles are so general as to not be of much use as a decision tool for an individual making a decision on a home purchase or sale in a particular area. Real estate is local (down to the neighborhood level) and market conditions can vary within each county and even within cities by a large amount. Recently, local real estate is even more important now than ever as we witness an even greater of variance between the different areas.


The median price for single family homes in Santa Clara County now stands at $512,450, down 35.9% from $799,000 the same month a year ago. These sudden changes in the median prices (first way up and now way down) show that the real culprit or cause in most of the drop is a shift in the mix of what is actually being sold. Currently, there are a large number of lower-priced homes that closed and thus make up a larger portion of the total sales. Before, we witnessed a mix shift toward the higher-priced homes and saw the median price spurt higher. If you want more detail please contact me. Recently, the stock market crash has caused a major pause in the real estate market but only in the moderately-priced and higher-priced areas. The most affordable priced areas haven't been affected! The bottom 10% median selling price (10th percentile) was $300,000 in December and showed a decline of 45.5% from the same month a year ago and the top 10% median price (90th percentile) was $1,243,500, saw a drop of 26.9% from December 2007.


The price range with the lowest DUI reading we call the "sweet-spot" of the market for single family homes continues to be the $450,000 and under range with a DUI reading of 94. Next comes the $450,000 to $600,000 range with a DUI reading of 145. For condo/townhouses the picture looks similar with the sweet-spot being the $300,000 and under range with a DUI reading of 144.

For real estate investment buyers, the DUI for residential investment property has dramatically decreased and in now at 289 versus 302 last month. This means under the current rate of sales of multi-unit properties, there are about 9.6 months of unsold supply versus 10.1 last month. With lower activity (29 closings in December), this remains a prime period for negotiation for a buyer with preapproved financing and adequate investment funds. As mentioned before, many lenders have substantially increased the borrower's minimum requirements to obtain a loan for investment property purchases AND many are not allowing the use of home equity credit lines for their down payments so I forecast that this area will remain weak and characterized as a buyer's market. This remains an area of opportunity for smart, long term investors with adequate down payments that have an appropriate long-term investment horizon. Matter of fact, we now see much better rates of return on rentals than previous. Rental vacancies are relatively low and steady. Last year, rents increased about 10% in Santa Clara County.


Why is following all these trends and statistics worth it? I believe that informed clients make the best decisions -- both buyers and sellers. The research and staying on top of the changes to market conditions allows me to properly advise my clients on the appropriate strategy to employ so that they make the best decision possible whether they decide to buy or sell. This is an example of how I invest my time to benefit my clients. Most other agents spend the bulk of their time working on self-promotion ads for newspapers, magazines and send you stuff that fill your mailbox. Beware the various media sound-bites or headlines as they generalize too much (i.e., the national real estate market, the Bay Area real estate market, etc.). If you generalize too much you lose the fineness of being able to use current information strategically to make better decisions.

If you're curious about market conditions in a specific area, please don't hesitate to give me a call. I review details of the supply and demand within the smallest area possible. With the credit situation we're experiencing, banks will be more aggressive in approving loan modifications which will slow down foreclosure activity. If you need advice regarding your loan situation, please give me a call and whatever you do, explore your options fully before making a decision. However, not all borrowers will qualify for a loan modification and so there will continue to be some bank-owned properties available in the future. I have access to four major sources of bank-owned homes so if you'd like to explore this area, please give me a call to set up an appointment.

Your comments are welcome! Please feel free to post them here or send me an email.

Thanks for reading!

November Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

This information summary and analysis uses MLS Listings Inc. (MLS) transactional data for October 2008. For single family homes in Santa Clara County, October saw an increase in closings of 41% from October 2007; closings of condos/townhouses saw an increase of 20% in the same period. There were 809 closings in the month with 1,073 initiated sales (accepted offers). As you know, not all accepted offers result in a closing. Closings of single family homes also increased in San Mateo County by 26%.

Inventory of available single family homes in Santa Clara County was 4,988, up a few from last month but up 5% from the same month last year. San Mateo County inventory increased by one to 1,654, but dropped 1% from October 2007. In Santa Cruz County, inventory trend has been slowly decreasing. Monterey County shows a steady trend toward lower inventory levels.


Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) or the intersection of the inventory (supply) with the recent sales level (demand), shows Santa Clara County at 140 for single family residences and 163 for condos/townhouses, modest increases from last month. San Mateo County is at 142 and 167, respectively. Santa Cruz County has a DUI reading of 193 and 172, respectively. Monterey County showed DUI at 135 and 197, respectively, and now sports the best DUI for single family homes of the four counties. Please remember that a lower figure is good here and that a declining measure represents an improvement in the market. Clearly, these levels continue to indicate a buyer's market condition as a reading of DUI of 90 or above depicts. As a comparison, a seller's market will have a DUI of less than 45 and a balanced market will have a DUI between the two. Keep in mind that these are county-wide averages. The wider area you measure, the statistics are less reliable as a decision tool for any specific area or neighborhood and also that there is often an incredible variation between those areas experiencing terrible market conditions compared to those that are stable. That's why I've mentioned that those statistics presented in newspaper articles are so general as to not be of use to an individual making a decision on a home in a particular area. Real estate is local (down to the neighborhood level in some cases) and market conditions can vary within each county and even within cities by a large amount.


The median price for single family homes in Santa Clara County was $550,000, down 36.2% from $861,500 the same month a year ago and down 31.2% from the December 2007 reading of $799,000. These sudden changes in the median prices from month to month show that there are many more lower-priced homes that closed, thus causing the drop in median and the mix of homes shifted from the higher-priced homes to the more affordable homes. Recently, the stock market crash has caused a major pause in the real estate market but only in the higher priced areas. The more affordable priced areas haven't been affected. The bottom 10% median selling price (10th percentile) was $329,600 in October and showed a decline of 44.6% from the same month a year ago and the top 10% median price (90th percentile) was $1,200,000, saw a drop of 31.2% from October 2007.


The price range with the lowest DUI reading we call the "sweet-spot" of the market for single family homes. For October, it was the $450,000 and under range with a DUI reading of 84. Next comes the $450,000 to $600,000 range with a DUI reading of 121. For condo/townhouses the picture looks similar with the sweet-spot being the $300,000 and under range with a DUI reading of 105.

For real estate investment buyers, the DUI for residential investment property has dramatically decreased and in now at 259 versus 316 last month. This means under the current rate of sales of multi-unit properties, there is about 8.5 months of unsold supply versus 11 last month! This remains a prime period for negotiation with a buyer whit preapproved financing and adequate investment funds. As mentioned before, many lenders have substantially increased the borrower's minimum requirements to obtain a loan for investment property purchases AND many are not allowing the use of home equity credit lines for their down payments so I forecast that this area will remain weak and characterized as a buyer's market. This remains an area of opportunity for smart, long term investors with adequate down payments that have an appropriate long-term investment horizon. Matter of fact, we now see much better rates of return on rentals than previous. Rental vacancies are relatively low and steady. This year, rents are estimated to increase 10-12% in Santa Clara County.


Why is following all these trends and statistics worth it? I believe that informed clients make the best decisions -- both buyers and sellers. The research and staying on top of the changes to market conditions allows me to properly advise my clients on the appropriate strategy to employ so that they make the best decision possible whether they decide to buy or sell. This is an example of how I invest my time to benefit my clients. Most other agents spend the bulk of their time working on self-promotion ads for newspapers, magazines and send you stuff that fill your mailbox with either "brag" cards or "spray and pray" cards. Beware the various media sound-bites or headlines as they generalize too much (i.e., the national real estate market, the Bay Area real estate market, etc.). If you generalize too much you lose the fineness of being able to use current information strategically to make better decisions.

If you're curious about market conditions in a specific area, please don't hesitate to give me a call. With the credit situation we're experiencing, banks will be more aggressive in approving loan modifications which will slow down foreclosure activity. However, not all borrowers will qualify for a loan mod and so there will continue to be some bank-owned properties available in the future. I have access to four major sources of bank-owned homes so if you'd like to explore this area, please give me a call to set up an appointment.

Your comments are welcome! Please feel free to post them here or send me an email.

Thanks for reading!

October Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

This information summary and analysis uses MLS Listings Inc. (MLS) transactional data for September 2008. For single family homes in Santa Clara County, September saw an increase in closings of 73% from September 2007. There were 899 closings in the month with 1286 initiated sales (accepted offers) that indicates that closings in October will likely remain at about the same level as not all accepted offers close escrow. Closings increased also in San Mateo County by 9% and Santa Cruz County of 64%. In Monterey, closings were 308, 250% higher than September 2007.

Inventory of available single family homes in Santa Clara County was 4,981, down from last month but up from the same month last year. San Mateo County inventory increased a bit to 1,653, but dropped slighted from September 2007. In Santa Cruz County, inventory decreased from last month and also from the same month last year. Monterey County shows a lower inventory than last month as well as lower than September 2007.


Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) or the intersection of the inventory (supply) with the recent sales level (demand), shows Santa Clara County at 121 for single family residences and 135 for condos/townhouses, a slight drop from last month. San Mateo County is at 112 and 129, respectively. Santa Cruz County has a DUI reading of 167 and 141, respectively. Monterey County showed DUI at 124 and 202, respectively. Please remember that a lower figure is good here and that a declining measure represents an improvement in the market. Clearly, even with the drops in this indicator, these still are indicating a buyer's market condition as a reading of DUI of 90 or above depicts. As a comparison, a seller's market will have a DUI of less than 45 and a balanced market will have a DUI between the two. Keep in mind that these are county-wide averages. The wider area you measure, the statistics are less reliable as a decision tool for any specific area or neighborhood and also that there is often an incredible variation between those areas experiencing terrible market conditions compared to those that are stable. As I've mentioned, real estate is local (down to the neighborhood level in some cases) and market conditions can vary within each county and even within cities by a large amount.


The median price for single family homes in Santa Clara County was $600,000, down 29.4% from $850,000 the same month a year ago and down 24.9% from the December 2007 reading of $799,000. A sudden change in the market shows that there are many more lower-priced homes that closed, thus causing the drop in median and the mix of homes shifted from the higher-priced homes to the more affordable homes. The bottom 10% median selling price (10th percentile) was $330,000 in September and showed a decline of 46.3% from the same month a year ago and the top 10% median price (90th percentile) was $1,331,869, saw a drop of 20.6% from September 2007.


The price range with the lowest DUI reading we call the "sweet-spot" of the market for single family homes. For September, it was the $450,000 and under range. Next comes the $450,000 to $600,000 range. For condo/townhouses the picture looks similar with the sweet-spot being the $300,000 and under range.

Potential real estate investment buyers take heed: the DUI for residential investment property is at 316. This means under the current rate of sales of multi-unit properties, there is about 11 months of unsold supply! Better opportunity to negotiate. As mentioned last month, many lenders have substantially increased the borrower's minimum requirements to obtain a loan for investment property purchases AND many are not allowing the use of home equity credit lines for their down payments so I forecast that this area will remain weak and characterized as a buyer's market. This remains an area of opportunity for smart, long term investors with adequate down payments that have an appropriate long-term investment horizon. Matter of fact, we now see much better rates of return on rentals than previous. Rental vacancies are relatively low and steady. This year, rents are estimated to increase 10-12% in Santa Clara County.


Why is following all these trends and statistics worth it? I believe that informed clients make the best decisions -- both buyers and sellers. The research and staying on top of the changes to market conditions allows me to properly advise my clients on the appropriate strategy to employ so that they make the best decision possible whether they decide to buy or sell. This is an example of how I invest my time to benefit my clients and part company from most other real estate agents. Most other agents spend the bulk of their time working on self-promotion ads for newspapers, magazines and stuff that fill your mailbox with either "brag" cards or "spray and pray" cards. Beware the various media sound-bites or headlines as they generalize too much (i.e., the national real estate market, the Bay Area real estate market, etc.). If you generalize too much you lose the fineness of being able to use current information strategically to make better decisions.

If you're curious about market conditions in a specific area, please don't hesitate to give me a call.

Your comments are welcome! Please feel free to post them here or send me an email.

Thanks for reading!

Fourth of July Fireworks Events

What's a Fourth of July celebration of Independence Day without fireworks? Well, here are some Bay Area events that will feature fireworks displays that begin at dusk or about 9:30pm. Some may require an admission fee.

• City of Santa Clara Fourth of July All-City Picnic: pancake breakfast followed by entertainment and family activities. 8am-5pm, July 4, Central Park, 909 Kiely Blvd., fireworks at 9:30pm. 408-615-3140
• Milpitas Independence Day festivities: pool party with music and food from 1-5pm, July 4. Fireworks begin at 9:30pm, Milpitas Sports Center, 1325 E. Calaveras Blvd. 408-586-3210
• Morgan Hill Independence Day Celebrations: street dancing with music, food and beverages, 5-9pm, July 3rd, downtown Morgan Hill
• Morgan Hill Independence Day celebration with pancake breakfast at 7am, 5K run/walk, parade, First and Monterey at 10am. Fireworks begin at dusk at Community Park, West Edmundson Avenue and Olympic Drive, 7am-11pm, July 4. 408-710-5467
• San Jose America Festival: 19th annual crafts, multicultural entertainment, food, beverages, children's activities, Noon-10:30pm, July 4. Fireworks begin at 9:30pm, Discovery Meadow, Woz Way and San Carlos Street.
• San Jose Giants Fireworks Extravaganza: after the game which start at 6:30pm, July 4 and July 5. Requires admittance to the game. Fireworks begin after the conclusion of each game.
• Spirit of America Church on the Hill Celebration: family fun, games and fireworks displays, 5-10pm, July 4, 500 Sands Drive, San Jose, $2. 408-265-9000
• Redwood City Independence Day Festival and Parade: live music, arts and crafts, food and beverages, and children's activities. Parade route begins at Brewster near Winslow, 9am-5pm, July 4. Fireworks will accompany music at 9:30pm, Marshall and Jefferson streets. 650-365-1825
• The San Francisco Symphony 4th of July Fireworks Spectacular: "A Salute to Heroes", featuring music from Rocky, Apollo 13, Superman and Lincoln Portrait. Opens at 5pm, July 4, symphony performance 8pm, fireworks after the performance, Shoreline Amphitheatre Parkway, 1 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, $29.50, $15 children, $24 lawn. 415-864-6000
• San Francisco Fourth of July Waterfront Celebration: music and viewing of fireworks display over San Francisco Bay, 1-9:30pm, July 4. Fireworks begin at 9:30pm, Pier 39, Beach Street and the Embarcadero, Free. 415-705-5500

Enjoy your Fourth of July! Thanks for reading!

Memorial Day 2008 Bay Area Events

The following events celebrate Memorial Day the right way around the Bay Area. All events are held on Monday, May 26^th, 2008.

Gilroy’s Memorial Day – remembrance and parade, 9:00am, Eighth and Monterey streets, Gilroy. www.gilroyparade.com

Memorial Day at Madronia – 80^th annual remembrance ceremony, 9:00am, Memorial Arch at Blaney Plaza, Oak Street near 6^th Street, Saratoga. 408-867-3428

Santa Clara Mission Cemetery – Mausoleum steps service will include “Taps” played in honor of all vets, 10:00am, 490 Lincoln Street, Santa Clara. 408-296-4656

Mission City Memorial Park – Service honoring our fallen soldiers, 10:30am, 420 N. Winchester Blvd., Santa Clara. 408-615-3790

Santa Clara Veterans Memorial in Central Park – color guard, memorial services, rifle squad, “Taps”, 3:30pm, 969 Kiely Blvd., Santa Clara. 408-296-2512

Oak Hill Memorial Park – honors veterans of past wars, 11:00am, 300 Curtner Avenue, San Jose. 408-297-2447

American Legion Memorial Day Ceremony – speakers will speak on veterans’ sacrifices and history of Memorial Day, 10:00am, 1159 Bush Street, San Carlos. 650-595-9998

Memorial Day Service at the Presidio of San Francisco – Main post parade, program, cemetery walks and concert, 10:30am, Presidio of San Francisco. 415-561-5500 or visit www.nps.gov/prsf/planyourvisit/events.htm

Memorial Day aboard the USS Pampanito – docked at Pier 45, Fisherman’s Wharf, 5:00pm, Taylor and Embarcadero streets, San Francisco. 415-775-1943

USS Hornet Museum Memorial Day Ceremony – honoring fallen soldiers with wreath throwing, presenting colors, 1:00pm, Pier 3, Alameda Point, Alameda. 510-521-8448

Veterans Memorial Day Service at Lone Tree Cemetery – Michael Emerson will speak on the Gettysburg Address, free food and drinks, 11:00am, 24591 Fairview Avenue, Hayward. 510-582-1274

Thanks for reading! Have a safe Memorial Day weekend.

Community Calendar

Hello and Happy New Year! As we turn the page on another year, here are some events and on-going programs you might want to put on your calendar for January. These are selections from Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Mountain View, Santa Clara and other communities in Silicon Valley.



January 2, 9, 16, 23, 30: Kiwanis Club of Silicon Valley, 7:30am



Jan 2: American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), monthly, 1:30pm



Jan 3: SNAIL Neighborhood Association, monthly, 7:00pm



Jan 4: Heritage District Neighborhood Association, 7:30pm



Jan 5, 12, 19, 26: Farmer's Market, 9:00am



Jan 6, 13, 20, 27: Fair Oaks Toastmasters, 11:30am



Jan 9: Lakewood Village Neighborhood Association, monthly, 7:00pm



Jan 10: Wake Up Sunnyvale!, Sunnyvale Chamber Breakfast, 7:29am



Jan 12: Evenings of Cultural Arts Presents, Sunnyvale Theater, Sunnyvale Community Center, 8:00pm



Jan 14: San Miguel Neighbors Association, general meeting, 7:00pm



Jan 19: Compost Workshop, 10:00am



Jan 19: Household Hazardous Waste Drop-Off, 8:00am-1:00pm, Sunnyvale residents



Jan 19: Robert Burns Supper, South Bay Scottish Society, 6:00pm, Mountain View Masonic Lodge



Jan 21: Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday



Jan 23: Glaucoma Support Group of the South Bay, 6:30pm



Jan 24: Sunnyvale Chamber Mixer, 5:00pm



Jan 26: Serving Children with Special Needs and their Families, 9:00am



Jan 26: California Theatre Center presents "The Adventures of Tom Sawyer", 11:00am



Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays: Computer and E-Waste Recycling, 8:00am-4:30pm, Cupertino proof of residency



Every Wednesday: South Bay Community Orchestra, Noon-1:00pm for strings, 1:00-4:00pm for full orchestra



Every Saturday: Family Astronomy Evenings, De Anza College Minolta Planetarium, 6:00pm, 7:00pm or 8:00pm



Every Second Monday of Month: Fine Arts League of Cupertino, Quinlan Community Center, 7:00pm

Thanks for reading!