February Silicon Valley Real Estate Update

Quick Market Summary: With the median price up 25.5% in the last year in Santa Clara County, we're still in a continued hot streak. Amazing, yes, but that doesn't mean every single home went up that much. Median price is the middle transaction of those that closed escrow during the month. It's more accurate to use median prices as an indicator of the overall trend. Supply and demand -- low inventory or supply coupled with high demand means higher prices. Basic economic theory. When record low inventory is mixed with a goodly amount of buyer demand, you get higher prices. Median prices continue to set records — in Santa Clara County it was $1,155,000 and $1,550,000 in San Mateo County in January. The Santa Clara County median price for condos/townhouses is $750,000. Demand continues to outstrip supply in Santa Clara County as 73.0% of homes that closed escrow sold for more than list price inferring multiple offers and a record for this time of year. It was 66% in San Mateo County. Will demand increase as we get into early spring -- we'll see but this is what occurs each year almost without fail.

Nuts and Bolts: Inventory or the amount of homes available for purchase in Santa Clara County was 452 down 27% from last year at this time. Sales (accepted offers) were 675 down from 689 or 2.0% from the same month last year. You'd think that sales would be down as much as inventory if you believe that some agents say that sales are limited by inventory. They forget that there is another variable to consider -- turnover. A faster market or one with a shorter number of days on market easily cancels or mitigates a lower level of inventory. Think the turnover in the fruit and vegetable portion of the market versus the turnover for packaged goods. Average days on market has dropped to just 17 -- lowest ever!

For San Mateo County, inventory of single family residences stood at 197 in January. Sales (accepted offers) were 252. Each of these much lower. For both counties, the inventory continues to lag far below the historical average for this time of the year placing pressure on buyers as evidenced in the predominance of multiple offer situations and heated competition between buyers trying to enter the market.

Sale price to list price ratio, an important key market condition indicator, shows that for Santa Clara County transactions completed during January this ratio stood at 108.5% and the highest ever for this time of year. The all time high of 110.0% was reached in the heady days of the “Dot-com” period in 2000. Last year at this time it stood at 101.4%.

Take a look at the chart below from MLSListings.com which shows the Santa Clara County sales price to list price ratio trend since 2001. Any value above 100% is an average that is above list price and infers multiple offers.

The hottest market in Santa Clara County belongs to the      Cupertino/Sunnyvale market area (median price of about $2.28 million) at 116.6% which means that the average closed sale has a sale price 16.6% higher than the list price! It also registered a low median days on market at just 9 which means half the inventory sells in just nine days! The coolest is the South County (Morgan Hill and Gilroy) market area (median price of about $0.85 million) with 100.3% and 30 days of unsold inventory.

Days of unsold inventory are at a record low of just 23 for Santa Clara County and 27 for San Mateo County. This means that for Santa Clara County that the entire inventory, if held static, would sell out in less than 23 days!

Even with the backdrop of the hot market we're still seeing a cooling off of the high end of the price ranges in the Los Altos/Palo Alto and Los Gatos/Saratoga market areas. These high-priced homes are staying on the market longer than those more closely aligned with the median priced homes in those same areas. Sellers need to be more aggressive with listing a home that has an expected sales price substantially higher than the median in the immediate area.

San Mateo County’s overall sale price to list price ratio stands at 109.6% with the highest ratio and hottest market area in the North (Brisbane, Colma, Daly City, Pacifica, San Bruno, South San Francisco) market area (median price of about $1.13 million) at 113.7% with a median days on market of 11. The coolest is the Coast (Half Moon Bay, El Granada, Moss Beach, Montara) market area, (median price of about $1.39 million). As was the case with the high end in Santa Clara County, we’re seeing the same characteristic with those higher priced homes in San Mateo County in Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Hillsborough and Woodside along with the high part of the range in the Bay Cities and Redwood City. San Mateo County’s sale price to list price ratio chart is from MLSListings.com.

Take a look at the chart below from MLSListings.com which shows the San Mateo County sales price to list price ratio trend since 2001.

As always, market dynamics change and the supply and demand relationships can vary by area. If you would like specific market condition information for your area or neighborhood or a current home valuation, please feel free to call me, your Remax Agent! You are welcome to leave your comments or questions or contact me directly at my website. Check out and “like” my Facebook Business Page (have over 750 likes – help me to reach 1,000!) or follow me on my Twitter Page.Thank you.

December Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Quick Market Summary: Up and away. That's the characterization of the continued hot streak as November prices jumped and are 25.1% higher than the same month a year ago. Yes, you read that right! When record low inventory is mixed with a goodly amount of buyer demand, you get higher prices. Median prices continue to set records — in Santa Clara County it was $1,289,000 and $1,513,000 in San Mateo County. The Santa Clara County median price for condos/townhouses is $790,000. Demand continues to outstrip supply in Santa Clara County as 77.9% of homes that closed escrow sold for more than list price inferring multiple offers and was 75% in San Mateo County. The historical averages we've seen in most of the past 20 years of a settling down of the market come late fall, is totally out the window. The question becomes is the sharp increases we've seen at this time of the year caused by buyers getting a jump on the historically busy late winter-early spring OR will be see a continuation of the high demand next year too.

Nuts and Bolts: Inventory or the amount of homes available for purchase in Santa Clara County was a paltry 486 down from 645 last month and down from 750 the same month last year or a decrease of 35.2%! Sales (accepted offers) were 791 down from 1,003 last month and decreased 1.7% from 805 the same month last year. Closed sales were interesting — they were 738 down from 797 last month and 826 the same month last year, a decrease of 10.7%. Comparing the large reduction of inventory and the smaller drop in offers accepted, we’ve seen that turnover has accelerated. Put another way — the days on market (DOM) have shortened making our market more efficient or faster.

For San Mateo County, inventory of single family residences stood at 243 in November down from 318 last month. Sales (accepted offers) were 318 a decrease from 460 last month. For both counties, the inventory continues to lag far below the historical average for this time of the year placing pressure on buyers as evidenced in the predominance of multiple offer situations and heated competition between buyers trying to enter the market.

Sale price to list price ratio, an important key market condition indicator, shows that for Santa Clara County transactions completed during November this ratio stood at 108.5% and the highest ever for this time of year and a bit lower than the all time high of 110.0% reached in the heady days of the “Dot-com” period in 2000. Last year it stood at 101.5%.

Take a look at the chart below from MLSListings.com which shows the Santa Clara County median price trend since 2000.

The hottest market in Santa Clara County belongs to the Cupertino/Sunnyvale market area (median price of about $2.02 million) at 116.8% which means that the average closed sale has a sale price 16.8% higher than the list price! It also registered the lowest median days on market at just 9 which means half the inventory sells in just nine days! The coolest is the South County (Morgan Hill and Gilroy) market area (median price of about $0.85 million) with 101.0% and 30 days of unsold inventory.

Days of unsold inventory are at a record low of just 21.5 for Santa Clara County and 23 for San Mateo County. This means that for Santa Clara County that the entire inventory, if held static, would sell out in less than 22 days!

We still are seeing a cooling trend in the high end of the price ranges in the Los Altos/Palo Alto and Los Gatos/Saratoga market areas. These high-priced homes are staying on the market much longer than those more closely aligned with the median priced homes in those same areas.

San Mateo County’s overall sale price to list price ratio stands at 108.3% with the highest ratio and hottest market area in the North (Brisbane, Colma, Daly City, Pacifica, San Bruno, South San Francisco) market area (median price of about $0.98 million) at 111.4% with a median days on market of 13. The coolest is the Coast (Half Moon Bay, El Granada, Moss Beach, Montara) market area, (median price of about $1.27 million). As was the case with the high end in Santa Clara County, we’re seeing the same characteristic with those higher priced homes in San Mateo County in Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Hillsborough and Woodside along with the high part of the range in the Bay Cities and Redwood City. San Mateo County’s sale price to list price ratio chart is from MLSListings.com.

Take a look at the chart below from MLSListings.com which shows the San Mateo County median price trend since 2000.

As always, market dynamics change and the supply and demand relationships can vary by area. If you would like specific market condition information for your area or neighborhood or a current home valuation, please feel free to call me, your Remax Agent! You are welcome to leave your comments or questions or contact me directly at my website. Check out and “like” my Facebook Business Page (have over 750 likes – help me to reach 1,000!) or follow me on my Twitter Page.Thank you.

November Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Quick Market Summary: The hot streak continues as October is added to the hottest real estate market period in history! Buyers seem to be getting a jump on expected future price gains and/or higher mortgage rates. Normal market trends have late summer and fall prices drifting lower along with sales and inventory. Not so this year! In October, inventory of available homes for sale attained what looks like a record low in Santa Clara County of just 645 single family residences. Median prices continue to set records — in Santa Clara County it was $1,250,000 and $1,525,000 in San Mateo County. The Santa Clara County median price for condos/townhouses is $767,000. Demand continues to outstrip supply in Santa Clara County as 75% of homes that closed escrow sold for more than list price inferring multiple offers and was 84% in San Mateo County. Historically, we see a higher level of interest from buyers post-Labor Day that lasts for a month or so and then things tend to settle down as we approach the holidays.

Nuts and Bolts: Inventory or the amount of homes available for purchase in Santa Clara County was just 645 down from 700 last month and down from 1,116 the same month last year or a decrease of 42.2%! Sales (accepted offers) were 1,003 down from 995 last month and decreased 8.7% from 1,098 the same month last year. Closed sales were interesting — they were 797 in October, 886 last month in September but only 859 last year, a decrease of 7.2%. Comparing the large reduction of inventory and the smaller drop in offers accepted, we’ve seen that turnover has accelerated. Put another way — the length of escrows have shortened making our market more efficient or faster.

For San Mateo County, inventory of single family residences stood at 318 in October down from 396 last month. Sales (accepted offers) were 460 an increase from 393 last month. For both counties, the inventory continues to lag far below the historical average for this time of the year placing pressure on buyers as evidenced in the predominance of multiple offer situations and heated competition between buyers trying to enter the market.

Sale price to list price ratio, an important key market condition indicator, shows that for Santa Clara County transactions completed during October this ratio stood at 107.7% and the highest ever for this time of year and a bit lower than the all time high of 110.0% reached in the heady days of the “Dot-com” period in 2000. Last year it stood at 101.9%. Take a look at the chart below from MLSListings.com which shows this ratio since 2000.

Currently, the highest ratio and the hottest market belongs to the Cupertino/Sunnyvale market area (median price of about $1.80 million) at 113.7% which means that the average closed sale has a sale price 13.7% higher than the list price. It also registered the lowest median days on market at just 8 which means half the inventory sells in just eight days! The coolest is the South County (Morgan Hill and Gilroy) market area (median price of about $0.82 million) with 101.0% and 15 days.

Days of unsold inventory are at a record low of just 22.5 for Santa Clara County and 31 for San Mateo County. This means that for Santa Clara County that the entire inventory, if held static, would sell out in less than 23 days!

The high end of the price ranges in the Los Altos/Palo Alto and Los Gatos/Saratoga market areas are showing signs of cooling. They are staying on the market much longer than those more closely aligned with the median priced homes in those same areas.

San Mateo County’s overall sale price to list price ratio stands at an even higher level of 110.2% with the highest ratio and hottest market area in the North (Brisbane, Colma, Daly City, Pacifica, San Bruno, South San Francisco) market area (median price of about $1.00 million) at 111.8% with a median days on market of 14. The coolest is the Coast (Half Moon Bay, El Granada, Moss Beach, Montara) market area, (median price of about $1.23 million). As was the case with the high end in Santa Clara County, we’re seeing the same characteristic with those higher priced homes in San Mateo County in Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Hillsborough and Woodsidealong with the high part of the range in the Bay Cities and Redwood City. San Mateo County’s sale price to list price ratio chart is from MLSListings.com.

As always, market dynamics change and the supply and demand relationships can vary by area. If you would like specific market condition information for your area or neighborhood or a current home valuation, please feel free to call me, your Remax Agent! You are welcome to leave your comments or questions or contact me directly at my website. Check out and “like” my Facebook Business Page (have over 750 likes – help me to reach 1,000!) or follow me on my Twitter Page.Thank you.

October Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Quick Market Summary: This past several months has been the hottest real estate market period in history! Perhaps buyers are getting a jump on the normal upswing that comes in early spring of each year. Anemic inventory levels coupled with the threat of higher mortgage rates and robust buyer activity and demand provided the price pop we witnessed. In September, inventory of available homes for sale attained a record low in Santa Clara County and very close to a record in San Mateo County. Median prices continue to set records — in Santa Clara County it was $1,180,000 and $1,465,000 in San Mateo County. The Santa Clara County median price for condos/townhouses is $720,000. Demand continues to outstrip supply in Santa Clara County as 70% of homes that closed escrow sold for more than list price inferring multiple offers and was 72% in San Mateo County. Historically, we see a higher level of interest from buyers post-Labor Day that lasts for a month or so and then things tend to settle down as we approach the holidays. Things WILL settle somewhat during this period but I believe we're in for higher prices early next year provided no huge external event changes the outlook.

Nuts and Bolts: Inventory or the amount of homes available for purchase in Santa Clara County was just 700 down from 723 last month and down from 1,277 the same month last year or a decrease of 45.2%! Sales (accepted offers) were 995 down from 1,131 last month but decreased from 1,118 the same month last year. Closed sales were interesting — they were 886 in September but only 826 last year, an increase of 7.3%. That busts the myth that sales are constrained by a lack of inventory as what we witnessed was a turnover rate faster than at any time in the last 20 years!

Here is a chart of the months of inventory for Santa Clara County single family residences from MLSListings. Please note the new all-time low reached last month.

 

For San Mateo County, inventory of single family residences stood at 396, up from 330 last month. Sales (accepted offers) were 393 and increased from 366 last month. For both counties, the inventory continues to lag well below the average for this time of the year placing pressure on buyers as evidenced in the predominance of multiple offer situations and heated competition between buyers trying to enter the market.

Here is a chart of the months of inventory for San Mateo County single family residences from MLSListings. It shows super low levels but not quite historic lows. 

Sale price to list price ratio, an important key market condition indicator, shows that for Santa Clara County transactions completed during September this ratio stood at 105.9% and the highest ever for this time of year! Last year it stood at 101.7%. Currently, the highest ratio and the hottest market area belong to  the Cupertino/Sunnyvale market area (median price of about $1.86 million) at 112.3% which means that the average closed sale has a sale price 12.3% higher than the list price. It also registered the lowest median days on market at just 10 which means half the inventory sells in just ten days! The coolest market area is Los Gatos/Saratoga (median price of about $2.40 million). 

 

The high end of the price ranges in the Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Palo Alto, Los Gatos and Saratoga market areas are showing signs of cooling.

 

San Mateo County’s overall sale price to list price ratio stands at an even higher level of 109.1% with the highest ratio and hottest market area in the Bay Cities (Belmont, Burlingame, Millbrae, San Carlos, San Mateo) market area (median price of about $1.66 million) at 113.0% with a median days on market of 11. The coolest market area is the Expensive (Atherton, Menlo Park, Portola Valley, Woodside, Hillsborough) market area, (median price of about $3.55 million). As was the case with the high end in Santa Clara County, we're seeing the same characteristic with those higher priced homes in San Mateo County in Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Hillsborough and Woodside along with the high part of the range in the Bay Cities and Redwood City.

 

As always, market dynamics change and the supply and demand relationships can vary by area. If you would like specific market condition information for your area or neighborhood or a current home valuation, please feel free to call me, your Remax Agent! You are welcome to leave your comments or questions or contact me directly at my website. Check out and "like" my Facebook Business Page (have over 750 likes - help me to reach 1,000!) or follow me on my Twitter Page. Thank you.

Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update - March 2017

Quick Market Overview: As is usual for this time of year, the number of available homes for sale have increased. While that is the case, inventory was lower by 18.2% in Santa Clara County and 21.7% lower in San Mateo County than at the same time a year ago. Median prices have increased some 16.8% in Santa Clara County to $1,084,000 but only 0.7% in San Mateo County to $1,350,000. Still, San Mateo County has the highest median price of all of California's 58 counties with Marin and San Francisco not far behind. Record median prices for this time of year were seen in February in the Silicon Valley real estate market. Demand continues to outstrip supply in Santa Clara County as 60.9% of homes that closed escrow sold for more than list price inferring multiple offers whereas in San Mateo County, it had an even higher percentage of homes that sold for more than list price of 65.0%.

Nuts and Bolts: Inventory or the amount of homes available for purchase in Santa Clara County was 719, down from 879 or 18.2% from the same month a year ago. Sales (accepted offers  increased 0.5%% in Santa Clara County to 869. In this measure, a downtrend has been in force since 2012!

For San Mateo County, inventory of single family residences stood at just 238 which decreased 21.7% from the same month a year ago. For both counties, the inventory continues to lag below the average for this time of the year placing pressure on buyers as evidenced in the predominance of multiple offer situations and heated competition between buyers.

Sale price to list price ratio shows that for Santa Clara County transactions completed during February, this ratio stood at 103.1% and among the highest for this time of year over the past 17 years! Currently, the highest ratio belongs to the Cupertino/Sunnyvale market area (median price of about $1.77 million) at 107.7%, a continued very HOT marketplace! Following close behind is the Los Altos/Palo Alto market area (median price of about $2.478 million) and the more moderate priced market area of Santa Clara, Willow Glen, Cambrian, Campbell (median price of $1.13 million). They registered the lowest median days on market at just 9 or 10 which means half the inventory disappears in just 9 or 10 days! The coolest market area is South County - Morgan Hill/Gilroy (median price of $730K).

San Mateo County’s ratio overall is at 104.4% with the highest ratio is in the Bay Cities (Belmont, Burlingame, Millbrae, San Carlos, San Mateo) market area (median price of about $1.74 million) at 105.9%. This indicates that this market area is the hottest. The coolest market area is the expensive areas of San Mateo County comprising Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Hillsborough, Woodside with a median price of about $2.925 million.

As is always the case, market dynamics change and the supply and demand relationships can vary by area. If you would like specific market condition information for your area or neighborhood or a current home value, please feel free to call me, your Remax Agent! And as always, you are welcome to leave your comments or questions. Thank you for reading!

February Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Quick Market Overview: As is usual for this time of year, the number of available homes for sale have increased. While not a huge jump, we do see a trend change nonetheless. Notwithstanding this, however, the real estate markets in both Santa Clara and San Mateo counties remain in record territory in terms of prices and well off their average inventory levels over the past 15+ years. Record median prices were seen again in January in the Silicon Valley real estate market, breaking last year's records. Demand continues to outstrip supply in Santa Clara County as 60% (versus 58% last month) of homes that closed escrow sold for more than list price inferring multiple offers whereas in San Mateo County, it had an even higher percentage of homes that sold for more than list price of 62% versus 60% last month. Both of these are record highs for this time of year! The median price for a single family residence in Santa Clara County continued in record territory at $898,000, and increased 10.6% over January 2015 so the Silicon Valley real estate trends continue in a positive manner. For San Mateo County, its median price settled at $1,155,000, increasing at 9.5% on a year over year basis.

Below is a chart of the number of single family residence sales in Santa Clara County from January 2002 to January 2016. (Data source: mlslistings.com) Notice the general downwards trend.

Nuts and Bolts: Inventory or the amount of homes available for purchase in Santa Clara County was 591, up from 495 or 19.4% from the record low in December but a decrease of 18.5% from the same month a year ago. whereas sales (accepted offers -- please see above chart) decreased 13.2% in Santa Clara County keeping the downtrend in force since 2012.

For San Mateo County, inventory of single family residences stood at just 234 which decreased 2.9% from the same month a year ago. For both counties, the inventory continues to lag below the average for this time of the year placing pressure on buyers as evidenced in the predominance of multiple offer situations and heated competition between buyers. Sales (accepted offers) were 200 a 8.7% decrease from the same month a year ago.  

Sale price to list price ratio shows that for Santa Clara County transactions completed during January, this ratio stood at 102.5%, level with the previous month and among the highest for this time of year over the past 16 years! Currently, the highest ratio belongs to the Los Altos/Palo Alto market area (median price of about $2.30 million) at 108.3%, a continued very hot marketplace! It also registered the lowest median days on market at just 9 which means half the inventory disappears in just 9 days! 

The Cupertino/Sunnyvale market area (median price about $1.60 million) came in a close second at 106.7% with a median days on market of 13. San Mateo County's ratio overall is at 105.0% with the highest ratio in the Bay Cities (Belmont, Burlingame, Milbrae, San Carlos, San Mateo) market area (median price of about $1.42 million) at 106.2%.

As you may suspect, market dynamics change and the supply and demand relationships can vary by area. If you would like specific market condition information for your area or neighborhood or a current home value, please feel free to call me, your Remax Agent! And as always, you are welcome to leave your comments or questions. Thank you.

Silicon Valley Real Estate Trends

With continued low inventory levels and higher demand from buyers, the April median price in the Silicon Valley real estate market jumped to their highest level since 2007 to $800,000 for a single family residence -- up 24% from the same month a year ago.

Similarly, the median price in April for condos and townhouses in Santa Clara County was $510,000, compared to $349,000 the same month a year ago which was a phenomenal 46% change.

For San Mateo County, the San Mateo real estate trends showed the April median price at $956,000, compared to $760,000, last year or a 25.8% increase.

As you know, a median price figure is the middle transaction so this statistical calculation won't necessarily translate into an across the board increase for each and every home.  What it does indicate is a strong market pressure and an upward trend for the Silicon Valley real estate market.

The frequency of the sale prices exceeding list prices is 73% in Santa Clara County and 68% in San Mateo County.  An indicator of the magnitude shows that the sale price to list price ratio averages 106.1% and 105.8% in Santa Clara County and San Mateo County, respectively.

An indicator I track closely in addition to the above ones, is the median days on market.  This represents how long it takes for one-half of the listings to sell.  In Santa Clara County, it is 10 days but just 9 in the Cupertino and Sunnyvale market area (hottest area in the county with a median sale price of $1,223,000) to 17 in the South County area which comprises Morgan Hill to Gilroy with a median sale price of $629,000.  For the current San Mateo real estate trends, it is but 11 days.

If a listing lingers on the market significantly longer than the median, well then it is a candidate for an analysis to determine the possible cause(s) including price, condition, marketing, etc.

As the old Meat Loaf song went, "two out of three ain't bad".  The last three buyers I helped recently, two strategies out of the three were successful.  In the first one, with multiple offers, my advice to my buyers was to offer in a range above list price and doing so beat out the second-place offer by just $1,000 with eight offers and a sale price over $800,000.  In the second transaction, the strategy devised by and used by my buyers failed.  They calculated a dollars per square foot against comparable homes.  For residential, this approach only works when you get lucky as in winning the lotto but I use this in addition to other aspects in my commercial transactions.  Their offer came in tenth out of ten and they missed purchasing a beautiful home by over $100,000.  For the third one, my buyer listened and followed my advice to offer in a range above list price and even though he didn't have the highest priced offer, the seller did accept his offer and closed recently.  For this one, there was more to my strategy than just price so on that basis, he won.  In the two successes, I not only gave advice on the minimum but on the maximum to pay for the home.  By the way, my long-term average performance is a success rate of 60% so these last three upped my average slightly!

In the last few weeks, I've noticed a change in the market in the favor of the buyers!  Many homes have generated multiple offers but not to the extent that we saw in the early part of the year.  This is in keeping with the historical tendency as we near Memorial Day weekend that buyers decide they have other things to do -- e.g., graduations, weddings, anniversaries, planning for vacation when school gets out, etc.  Also noted is that the inventory levels or those homes available to purchase have risen lately, affording more choices for buyers.  For single family residences, the highest inventory in seven months and for condos and townhouses, the highest level in eleven months!

Notwithstanding my prior comments about the market conditions during April, buyers that have pulled back from actively looking for a home for whatever reason, now stand a much better chance of being able to buy with less competition than in the recent past.  Mortgage rates still remain favorable but have nudged up a bit but still in artificially low levels as the Feds continue to purchase a mixture of U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to the tune of about $85 billion per month!  Their most recent comments contain a lot of double-speak thus raising the risk of a change in their programs -- e.g., less buying and the risk of higher mortgage rates.  In following the money, a lot of the funds created in the banking system have gone into asset categories like stocks and real estate (Google recently hit $900 and LinkedIn $200).  This is the "new" way the government prints money.

Please leave a comment or question if there is something you'd like to hear more about or would like information about the market in your neighborhood or contact me through my website or send me an email.  Thank you for reading!

April Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Here are my observations of the most recent March transactions for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website or send me an email.

General Market Observations and Comments -- Inventory, those homes available for sale have continued to increase, but remain well below the average level for this time of year.  In Santa Clara County, there were just 908 single family residences on the market versus 857 last month. In San Mateo County, there were 446 compared to 433. These levels are running about 50% of the average over the last 10+ years!

The median days on the market or what it takes to sell one-half of those on the market, sell in just 11 days in Santa Clara County and 12 days in San Mateo County -- indicating a hot seller's market. For March, 792 homes closed escrow last month in Santa Clara County, up from 621 in February and 333 did so in San Mateo County versus 247 last month. Comparing March of 2013 with previous Marches, this month was the third slowest in terms of closings.  

Both counties continue to have the characteristics of a seller's market generally. During March, more than half of the closings had a sales price greater than a list price (68% in Santa Clara County and 62% in San Mateo County with both percentages increasing from February). For owners thinking of selling, it is important to understand the market dynamics in their particular market area. For many, this remains an excellent time to sell.

Seller's -- Should You List on the MLS or Not? --  More recently, we've run into listings that are "not advertised" and not on the MLS (Multiple Listing Service).  I advise my sellers that in order to assure the maximum exposure to the market, it is imperative to have their home on the MLS.  That way, all agents may be exposed to it.  If not, we call those listings "pocket" listings.  The term denotes that the listing is for the listing agent/broker only and its purpose is to increase the likelihood that that listing agent will handle both sides of the transaction, not to get the maximum price and best terms for the seller!  As listing agents, we Realtors sign an agency relationship form that states the agent will use full fiduciary duties to their client but pocket listings don't adhere to this as it doesn't place their client's interest before their own.  Be wary of agents advising NOT to list it on the MLS which is designed to open up the market and as a result is a benefit to the seller.  This might be used in an extreme circumstance.  For example, when a famous personality wants to sell but there are still ways to circumvent this approach that gives the seller access to the entire market.  Watch out for the legal battles when sellers who have been told that they will receive market value without the "mess" of having their home on the market only to find out they've been financially sucker-punched.   

Hot, Hotter, Hottest Market Areas -- In Santa Clara County, the hottest market area is Cupertino, Sunnyvale (zip codes 95014, 94086, 94087). It sports a median sale price of $1,245,000 and has a median days on market of just 9 days! A hotter market is Los Altos and Palo Alto with a median sale price of $2,288,000 has a median days on market of 10. Only a hot market is Santa Clara, Willow Glen, Cambrian and Campbell with a median sale price of $750,000 and has a median days on market also of 10.  

Beautiful and Abundant Trees - Los Altos, CA

For San Mateo County, the hottest market area is Foster City and Redwood Shores with a median sale price of $1,006,000 and a median days on market of 10, followed by a hotter market of the Bay Cities area including Belmont, Burlingame, Milbrae, San Carlos, San Mateo with a median sale price of $1,051,000 and a median days on the market of 10.   

Median Prices are Jumping -- The trends of median prices of single family, condo and townhouse homes continue upwards. For single family residences, March saw Santa Clara County's median price, half above and half below or the middle transaction, at $731,000 and the median sales price for San Mateo County increased to $950,000. The upwards trend has been evident since the Spring of 2009. By the way, market bottoms were also established during this time in both stock indices and commodities.

Recent Overbidding Levels Remain High -- The percentage where sale price is greater than list price gives us an indication of the incidence of multiple offers. Already mentioned is the frequency of overbidding (sale price greater than list price 68% of the time in Santa Clara County and 62% in San Mateo County) but a more telling aspect is the magnitude or sales price to list price ratio (SP/LP). In Santa Clara County, the average SP/LP ratio is 105.2 or in the average transaction the seller gets 5.2% above the list price. Hottest area is Los Altos and Palo Alto with 109.7. The Cupertino and Sunnyvale market area was just behind with a ratio of 108.9. In San Mateo County the numbers look similar. Overall, the county average is 104.8 and the highest is Bay Cities market area of Belmont, Burlingame, Millbrae, San Carlos, San Mateo with 107.4.

Yahoo! World Headquarters - Sunnyvale, CA

Thanks for reading! I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- On Google+ at +Tom McEvoy. Let me know if you have any comments, questions, observations or any future topics you'd like me to address.

February Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Here are my observations of the most recent January 2013 transactions for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website or send me an email.

General Market Observations and Comments -- At the end of the year the amount of homes  (single family and condos and townhouses) available broke new record low levels! In Santa Clara County, there were just 727 single family residences on the market, 394 in San Mateo County. Even though the amount of available homes for sale seemingly jumped from the levels witnessed at year end, they're climbing from record lows! The average annual cycle sees inventory build from early in the year so we're experiencing that once again. The current market condition continues to place most buyers at a disadvantage. Still, 522 homes closed escrow last month in Santa Clara County and 234 did so in San Mateo County. Both counties have the characteristics of a seller's market in most market areas but not all. During January, more than half of the closings had a sales price greater than a list price (55% in Santa Clara County and 53% in San Mateo County). It bears repeating that a well-priced listing has a tendency to develop more activity and have a much higher chance of generating multiple offers. For owners thinking of selling, it is a very good time to sell.

Which Half Are You? --  In January, it took just 16 days to sell half of the homes in Santa Clara County and 17 in San Mateo County! Keep in mind that these are countywide averages and both saw a slight increase from from the month prior. This is not to infer that the market is cooling down. Quite the contrary, even though it's cold outside, generally, the real estate markets are HOT!

In Santa Clara County, the fastest market area is Santa Clara, Willow Glen, Cambrian, Campbell with a median sale price of $703,000 has a median days on market of just 12 days followed closely by Cupertino and Sunnyvale (zip codes 95014, 94087, 94086) with a median sale price of $1,123,000 has a median days on market of 13. The slowest is East, Central, South San Jose with a median price of $403,000 has a median days on market of 30. For San Mateo County, the fastest market area is the Bay Cities of Belmont, Burlingame, Millbrae, San Carlos, San Mateo with a median sale price of $940,000 has a median days on market of 14 whereas the slowest is the expensive areas of San Mateo County comprising the communities of Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Hillsborough with a median sale price of $2,036 has  median days on market of 52.

Median Prices Continue to Increase -- The trend of median prices of single family, condo and townhouse homes continue upwards. For single family residences, January saw Santa Clara County's median price, half above and half below or the middle transaction, at $661,000 and the median sales price for San Mateo County decreased slightly to $715,000 from the previous month. The upwards trend has been evident since the Spring of 2009 --  not in a straight line but a varied line.

Recent Overbidding Levels Remain High -- The percentage where sale price is greater than list price gives us an indication of multiple offers. The talked about the frequency of overbidding (sale price greater than list price 55% of the time in Santa Clara County and 53% in San Mateo County) but a more telling aspect is the magnitude or sales price to list price ratio (SP/LP). In Santa Clara County, the average SP/LP ratio is 102.4% or in the average transaction the seller gets 2.4% above the list price. Hottest area is Cupertino and Sunnyvale with 106.0. In San Mateo County the numbers look similar. Overall, the average is 102.4 and the highest is Foster City/Redwood Shores with 104.9.

Murphy Avenue called Murphy Street in Sunnyvale, CA

Distress Property in Decline -- In Santa Clara County, there were just 4% of the available listings that were short sales and 4% bank-owned which means regular listings accounted for more than 90%! This is a far cry from even last year when these combined for a quarter of the listings. 

 

Mortgage Rates Bottom? -- While mortgage rates remain at or near recent lows, buyers contemplating a purchase may be surprised to learn that rates have moved up. A new issue of U.S. Treasury 10-year notes were sold at a price to yield 2.02%. This is an increase from the record low of about 1.50%.  The Fed continues to monitize debt (buy mortgage-backed and other debt-securities to the tune of about $85 billion a month -- an annual rate of $1+ trillion). This puts money into the banking system and investors have to put it somewhere. Since the economy remains generally sluggish, the money predominately ends up in assets (e.g., stocks, commodities and yes, real estate). It remains long-term prudent to lock in rates before the market moves much farther away from these levels.

Thanks for reading! I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- On Google+ at +Tom McEvoy. Let me know if you have any comments, questions, observations or any future topics you'd like me to address.

Posted by Tom McEvoy, Realtor at 3:57 PM

January Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Here are my observations of the most recent December 2012 transactions for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website or send me an email.

General Market Observations and Comments -- At the end of the year the amount of homes  (single family and condos and townhouses) available broke new record low levels! In Santa Clara County, there were just 534 single family residences on the market, 293 in San Mateo County. Part of this is due to the seasonality aspect as inventory trends decrease toward the end of the year and the other is that this continues the trend set in motion from the early part of  last year. Lowered inventory usually advantages sellers but that doesn't mean buyer are not buying. In fact, 830 homes closed escrow last month in Santa Clara County and 317 did so in San Mateo County. Both counties have the characteristics of a seller's market in most market areas but not all. During December, more than half of the closings had a sales price greater than a list price (58% in Santa Clara County and 56% in San Mateo County). It bears repeating that a well-priced listing has a tendency to develop more activity and have a much higher chance of generating multiple offers.

Which Half Are You? --  In December, it took just 13 days to sell half of the homes in Santa Clara County and 14 in San Mateo County! Keep in mind that these are countywide averages and both saw this decline from the month prior. A neighborhood may vary from these figures so it's best to contact your Realtor for a current reading.

In Santa Clara County, the fastest market area is Cupertino and Sunnyvale (zip codes 95014, 94086, 94087) with a median days on market of just 10 whereas the slowest is Los Gatos and Saratoga with a median days on market of 46 for those that closed escrow during the month. For San Mateo County, the fastest market area is Redwood City with 12 whereas the slowest is the expensive areas of San Mateo County comprising the communities of Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Hillsborough with 31.

Median Prices Continue to Increase -- Median prices of single family, condo and townhouse homes continue upwards. For single family residences, December saw Santa Clara County's median price, half above and half below or the middle transaction, increase to $697,000 and the median sales price for San Mateo County decreased slightly to $810,000 from the previous month. The upwards trend has been evident since the Spring of 2009.

Recent Overbidding Levels Remain High -- We talked about the frequency of overbidding (sale price greater than list price in 58% of the closes) but a more telling aspect is the magnitude or sales price to list price ratio (SP/LP). In Santa Clara County, the average SP/LP ratio is 102.7% or in the average transaction the seller gets 2.7% above the list price. Hottest area is Los Altos/Palo Alto with 105.9. In San Mateo County the numbers look similar. Overall, the average is 102.3 and the highest is Foster City/Redwood Shores with 104.2.

In Santa Clara County, for the Sunnyvale and Cupertino (zip codes 94086, 94087, 95014) market area, there were exactly none with 51 active single family residence listings. Ditto for Redwood Shores/Foster City area in San Mateo County with just five active listings.

Foster City, California

What's HOT and What's NOT -- In Santa Clara County, the hottest market area comprises Santa Teresa, North Valley, Milpitas, Blossom Valley with a Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) of 15. In San Mateo County, the hottest area is Foster City/Redwood Shores with a DUI of 10. What's not is Los Gatos/Saratoga in Santa Clara County with a DUI of 61 and the expensive areas of Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Hillsborough and Woodside in San Mateo County with a DUI of 99.

Mortgage Rates Bottom? -- While mortgage rates remain at or near recent lows, buyers contemplating a purchase may be surprised to learn that rates moved up. Current U.S. Treasury 10-year notes are quoted at 1.90%, up from the record low of about 1.50% and bond prices look to be topping, it may be long-term prudent to lock in rates before the market moves the rates away from these levels.

Thanks for reading! I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- On Google+ at +Tom McEvoy. Let me know if you have any comments, questions, observations or any future topics you'd like me to address.