August Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Comments

Here are my observations of the most recent July transactions for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website or send me an email.

General Market Observations and Comments -- The amount of homes (single family and condos and townhouses) available for sale continue at low levels. The level reached in July was the lowest for this time of the year in at least 12 years! Most areas in both counties have the characteristics of a seller's market with more than half of the closings during July had a sales price greater than a list price (57% in Santa Clara County and 51% in San Mateo County). That said, a well-priced listing has a tendency to attract more activity and multiple offers.

Which Half Are You? --  In July, it took just 13 days to sell half of the homes in Santa Clara County and only 15 days in San Mateo County!  If you're home has been on the market longer than the median days on market then there must be something wrong with its condition, location, and oh yes, maybe the price.

Median Prices Increase -- Median prices of single family, condo and townhouse homes continue to march upward. For July, Santa Clara County's median price for single family residences, half above and half below or the middle transaction, increased to $695,000, compared to $598,000 the same month a year ago representing an increase of 16.2%. The median sales price for San Mateo County was $810,000.


Inventory of Available Homes for Sale Continue at Low Levels -- There were just 1,328 single family residences for sale in Santa Clara County and just 598 in San Mateo County. Not record lows but each are about 55% lower than in July 2011.

Apple's Campus of the Future - Courtesy Cupertino City Hall

What's HOT and What's NOT -- In Santa Clara County, the hottest market area is Cupertino and Sunnyvale with a Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) of 25. In San Mateo County, the hottest area is Foster City/Redwood Shores with a DUI of 27. What's not is Los Gatos/Saratoga in Santa Clara County with a DUI of  102 and the expensive areas of Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Hillsborough and Woodside in San Mateo County with a DUI of 117.

Lender-Controlled Transactions Take a Dive -- Last month the percentage of homes on the market that are lender-controlled (short sale and bank-owned) shrank to just 10% in both counties! That means 90% of the active status homes are regular or equity sales. Of course, this percentage will vary throughout each county depending upon the area.



Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- Let me know if you have any comments, questions, observations or any future topics you'd like me to address.

July Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights

Here are the highlights of June's transactions and market comments for Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. You may leave comments here, or contact me through my website.

> Market Overview -- It's been over a year since we called the bottom of the real estate market in Santa Clara County -- March-April 2009. Since then we've seen a steady improvement in market conditions and this remains more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County decreased to 1,084 from 1,230 last month and was down 8.9% from the same month a year ago. San Mateo County actually saw higher SFR closings at 446 from 418 last month and was up 6.2% from the same month a year ago. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:

* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) is trending upwards in both counties these past six months which is usual for this time of the year. What is not usual is that while the inventory in Santa Clara County is 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago, the inventory in San Mateo is 25.8% higher!

* 53% of sellers in Santa Clara County get at least list price for their homes! In San Mateo County, the corresponding percentage is 43.7%. This is another indicator that the overall market remains stronger in Santa Clara County.

* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues a positive trend -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio and represents a calculation using both supply and demand. A lower figure for DUI, then, means improvement. For June, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 68 for SFR, 78 for condos/townhouses and 216 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 97 for SFR's and 92 for condos/townhouses and 332 for multi-unit properties. All readings were more positive for Santa Clara County.

> HOT Markets? -- For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, East Valley, Evergreen Valley, Santa Teresa areas of San Jose. A seller's market has shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers with a tendency to have multiple offers and sale prices generally exceeding list prices and the potential of price appreciation.

> Cool Markets? -- We call them buyer's markets but everything is relative, right? For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Saratoga, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, and the Almaden Valley and Willow Glen portions of San Jose. Saratoga and Willow Glen with Los Gatos/Monte Sereno are my current "Best Buy" areas in the county. What makes a "buyers" market is the relationship of supply to demand -- higher supply and lower demand. The characteristics of a buyers market is a longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even price depreciation.

Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).

> Median prices continue upward trend -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's increased to $637,500 versus $550,250 or 15.9% increase from June 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $360,000 or 3% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $792,000, 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago, whereas condos/townhouses was $451,000, 3% lower. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks to sell newspapers! However, I advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients of the appropriate strategy to employ to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.

> Distress Sales Watch -- Santa Clara County's real estate market has changed over the past year. Last year there were more bank-owned listings, this year more short sale listings. Both categories are what we call "lender-controlled". However, the surprising thing is that last year there were 56% of the closings were normal but this year normal has jumped to 69% of the total.

> Shorts are Long! -- Bank-owned transactions are similar to normal transactions as to length of escrows but short sales can try a buyer's patience. Matter of fact, they try all parties patience. Banks tell us they are working to reduce the process time for short sales but with a number of decision makers involved in a short sale, its anybody's guess. Here's some details as to why they take much longer AND there's no guarantee that they close! The ultimate decision rests with the Investor or owner of the loan. Most people think that if they get a loan through Wells Fargo or Bank of America, the bank owns the loan. Not true, as most of the loans have been sold to other investors (e.g., Fannie, Freddie, FHA, private investor groups, etc.). With this situation, the bank services the loan (collecting payments, producing statements, etc.) but does not own the loan, earning a fee for doing so. Each loan they sold, freed up funds to loan to someone else! Each Investor (and there could be more than one), tries to minimize their losses, each has their unique contractor guidelines (FHA requires TWO appraisals) and there are other interested parties (e.g., mortgage insurance company, Second lien mortgage holder. In fact, where there’s more than one loan, they could easily be held by different banks complicating the process even more. All the parties must be in alignment before a home can be sold. Banks or Investors who hold mortgages are sophisticated sellers.

Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you make a better, more-informed decision.


Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.

June Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Here are my observations of the most recent market actions for Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties. You are encouraged to leave your comments and questions or even update us on what you are witnessing in your neighborhood.

> Market continues in turnaround mode! My recent posts have mentioned that the market activity is turning around. Well, May's activity continues the trend and provides more evidence that we could have seen the bottom! How can this be?

• Buyers are all but tripping over each other to submit offers for homes in the more affordable areas of Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties.
  
• The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) continues to decline in each of the four counties. Normally, inventory is increasing at this time of the year. Lowered inventory and strong demand means HIGHER PRICES!
  
• The number of initiated sales (in contract) have jumped in Santa Clara County and is trending higher in the other counties, too.
  
• The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) has improved (decreased) substantially. The DUI for single family residences in Santa Clara County for under $450,000 is an astonishing 26 which means when freezing inventory, ALL homes would sell in less than month!. Anything less than 45 represents a Seller's market with market characteristics of multiple offers, high percentage selling above list price AND, price APPRECIATION.
• Median prices have increased in each county except for Monterey.

> 2 Hot 2 Handle? -- How's 20 offers on a single family residence? Or, 81 or even 99 offers? Yes, those are real numbers of offers received on three listings that I'm familiar with. I coach my buyers that list prices don't mean a thing, especially when the list price is way under the fair market value of the home. Research must be done to determine, as best as possible, the fair market value so that an intelligent offer can be submitted otherwise you're just spinning wheels. No seller whether a bank or not is going to sell for less than it's market value. So what we have now is that sales are extremely high but closings (close of escrows) are running at the third worst month in the last ten years!

> Bank-owned homes offer the best deals? -- First, that's a myth in general as banks are actually sophisticated sellers. They've already lost money and maintaining a listing costs them even more so they hire listing agents, who in many cases, set list prices at ridiculously low prices to spur activity AND multiple offers. This sets up in the minds of potential buyers that they can actually buy the home at or even under the list price. Invariably, the home sells for it's fair market value.

Second, prices have adjusted tremendously in many areas so are a lot less than they were at the peak in real estate pricing which differs in each area.

> Seller's Markets? -- Yes, there are! Areas of Santa Clara County experiencing a seller's market condition are: Blossom Valley (hottest market in Valley), South San Jose, East Valley (Alum Rock), Santa Teresa, Cambrian and Evergreen. To refresh you, characteristics of a seller's market are fewer days on market, lower number of homes available for sale, higher probability of multiple offers with many sale prices exceeding list prices and some added price appreciation.

> Buyer's Markets? -- OK, yes, there are some of those too! Areas of Santa Clara County experiencing a buyer's market condition are: Saratoga (coolest market in Santa Clara County), Los Gatos, Almaden Valley, Mountain View, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Palo Alto. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer days on market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower probability of multiple offers or even an offer with most sale prices below list price with general price depreciation.

> Sales per Day -- The amount of average sales per day in May reached 56.7 for Santa Clara County. The last time this figure was this high was in May 2005 when the market activity was nearing a crescendo! The only other May that had higher sales per day was in 2004 which was over 64. The big difference between 2004 and 2005 and May of 2009 was that many transactions this year did not close!

> Median prices. Stuck at $450,000 for Santa Clara County these past few months, moved up to $470,000 in April increased yet again to $490,000. Median prices (the middle transaction) for an entire county are actually worthless to use as part of a strategy for buying or selling. Each area, down even to the neighborhood, has differing dynamics of supply and demand so needs to be looked at accordingly. We've observed that market mix has helped bring down median prices due to more low-priced homes closing as a percentage of total closings. With more of the lower-priced home selling briskly there will be a lot less of them available and buyers will have to buy some higher priced ones.

> Tale of Two Markets -- Sales of affordably-priced homes mainly in the less than $450,000 level are HOT. On the other hand, sales of higher-priced homes are virtually dead, as some would say, in the more expensive areas. For instance, there have been no sales of $5+ million homes in the last five weeks in Santa Clara County.

So keep this in mind that if you are considering a sale in an expensive area, you probably want to sell quickly rather than waiting but in any case check with a Realtor knowledgeable about current market conditions to guide you in positioning your home for maximum activity and price while minimizing time on market. You really don't want to be on the market for a year or more.

And, if you are considering a purchase of a home in an expensive area, get ready to buy! Why, get ready? I think we'll see list prices reduced and sale prices dropping more before they are likely headed higher.

> Want to sell with multiple offers? The percent of completed sales or closings with a sold price greater than list price stands at 37.1%. This level, up a bit, means that fully one out of three sellers received more than their asking price. Oh, and another 8.1% of sellers received their full list price!

Want to hear a little secret? Some of those sellers receiving either their list price or something higher had to reduce their list prices to generate one or more offers. These figures don't calculate what the sale price to original list price ratio is but only what the current list price was at the time of sale.

> Loan Traffic Jam Lets Up! Last month, I mentioned that if you have applied to refinance your existing mortgage that lenders were clogged with loan applications. Well, what a difference a month of increasing mortgage rates makes. There's still a backlog but if you were trying to play the interest rate game and waiting for another 1/8th or 1/4 point drop, the mortgage rates shot up almost a full point!

Moral of this story is that if the current rate works (benefits you financially) then lock in the rate and close the loan!

> Investor's Reawaken Somewhat - A bit more activity in the multi-unit properties but wanted to mention that those properties with list prices less than $600,000 are seeing much more activity. The days of unsold inventory (DUI) for this type of property in this level has dropped to 54 versus an improved 122 overall.


Thanks for reading -- what are your thoughts and comments?

April Real Estate Market Highlights

Here are my observations of the most recent market action in Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, San Mateo and Monterey counties. You are encouraged to leave your comments and questions or even update us on what you are witnessing in your neighborhood.

> Market turnaround? Remember I've said recently that the market activity is turning around? Well, March's activity has shown me more evidence that we could have seen the bottom! How can this be?

• Buyers are willing to make offers as initiated sales (accepted offers) are up in Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, San Mateo and Monterey counties.
  
• This isn't Thanksgiving but even the "turkeys" are selling. I've been caught using the term "turkeys" to denote an overpriced home. Some of these homes have been on the market for more than a year and may be located on an extremely busy street. Also, the median days on market, DOM, for those homes available for sale has dropped from 100 in January to 70 in March. Tells me that Thanksgiving is getting closer!
  
• The number of initiated AND completed sales or closings are trending upwards in each county. Part of that is seasonal but part has to be market improvement. Levels are not quite breaking records, except in Monterey.
• The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) has improved (decreased) substantially. The DUI for single family residences in Santa Clara County for under $450,000 is 42 which means freezing inventory, ALL homes would sell in 42 days. Anything less than 45 represents a Buyer's market! Characteristics of a buyers market is multiple offers, substantial percentage selling above list price AND, get this, price APPRECIATION.
  

> Myth Buster! "Lenders are not lending" -- Pure and simple, this is a myth cooked up to make bankers look even worse. Now, I don't have stock in any bank but these are the facts. After paring staff, lenders are flooded with applications for refinances now with mortgage rates in the mid-4% range. In addition, purchasers need loans, too. This huge sea change in demand for loans has caused lenders to push out the time necessary to complete refinances from 30 days to a range of 60-90 days. Purchase loans have an impending event tied to a close of escrow so these loans are given preferential treatment because of that. Those refinancing will have to be patient to begin to see savings.

> Mortgage Refinance Tips -- Some of you may know that I used to "do" mortgage loans and advised my clients on a couple of handy "rule-of-thumbs" as quick indicators to see if refinancing would be a financial benefit to the borrowers, not the loan officer!

• First, the rate should be more than 10% difference, obviously lower, than your current rate. That means if your currently at 5.50%, the new rate should have a rate at least 10% under this or 4.95%. (For the math wizzes, you'd subtract 10% of 5.50 or 0.55 from 5.50 to equal 4.95%.) A rate lower than this level should benefit you and amortize the costs of the loan so you can more quickly start accruing the savings AFTER the cost of doing the loan, AND
• Second, it matters most how long you plan on keeping the LOAN. If you plan a sale in a year or so, it probably does NOT make financial sense to refinance.

Finally, just about everyone knows that rates bounce all over the place so that a quote you receive one day is probably gone the next. The only way you can guarantee a rate is to "lock" it in and that takes an application and commitment to a loan officer not 50 inquiries over the internet. Need a referral to a trusted loan professional? Please contact me.

> Use Zillow.com? If you check out www.zillow.com for estimates of market value in an area, there are couple of potential pitfalls you should be aware of. First, be careful that the size of the home you're looking at compared to the average size in that area. If the home you are curious about is similar to the average sized home, the market estimate may be a reasonable start. If it is much larger or smaller, I've noticed a much larger departure from market value. Not every home sells each month, right? Second, believe it or not, zillow doesn't "see" into homes. They don't have a clue if you have hardwood floors, sloping floors, no floors, granite countertops or whatever. Their proprietary formula (only known by them) is in use and they apply it across all the homes in the area.

Some who used to trade stocks now think that real esate can be "quoted" in the same fashion. Hardly. Who can discern differences? Your friendly Realtor who stays on top of market changing conditions!

> Condos catching up with single family residences -- A couple of months ago, we witnessed the increase in sales of single family homes far exceeding the increase in sales of condos. Remember, I mentioned that there were better deals in condos and townhouses due to the improved affordability (read -- lower prices) of single family residences? Well, this is beginning to turn. Condo and townhouse closings were up 27% from March 2008 to March 2009, while the increase in closings of single family homes was 24%.

> Median prices. Stuck at $450,000 for Santa Clara County these past few months, median prices (middle transaction) for an entire county are worthless. "Warm to the touch" you might say when touching someone in the middle who is freezing on one side and boiling on the other. Each area, down even to the neighborhood, has differing dynamics of supply and demand so needs to be looked at accordingly. We've observed that market mix has helped bring down median prices due to more low-priced homes closing as a percentage of total closings. We have also seen the opposite occur in 2007 when higher-priced homes sold and the lower-priced homes were starting with the sub-prime loan issues and didn't sell as frequently.

> $5,000,000+ home buyers waking up? Sales of these higher-priced homes were virtually non-existent recently but that has changed. In the past month, four homes in Santa Clara County and three homes in San Mateo County have sold and are in escrow! Any interest? If so, you have plenty to choose from as the number of available homes for sale in this price range is 37 in Santa Clara County and 48 in San Mateo County.

> Want to sell with multiple offers? The percent of completed sales or closings with a sold price greater than list price stands at 31.0%. This level, down a bit, means that about one out of three sellers received more than their asking price. Oh, and 11.3% of sellers received their list price!

Want to hear a little secret? Some of those sellers receiving either their list price or something higher had to reduce their list prices to generate one or more offers. These figures don't calculate what the sale price to original list price ratio is but only what the current list price was at the time of sale.

> Traffic Jam! With the lowest mortgage rates since the '60's, the demand by borrowers trying to refinance have created an avalanche of work for the lenders. Yes, this is after they laid-off staff! First, rates for refinance loans average about 1/4 point higher than similar program purchase loans. Second, the process can take as much as 60-90 days! Third, there's no cash-out refi's as that option dissapeared.

> Investor's Corner - We've mentioned that investors have not been doing much lately with multi-unit residential properties. A couple of reasons are more stringent loan application and increased down payment requirements lenders have imposed. The other reason is, quite frankly, a less than optimistic outlook that many investors have. Closings have been enemic: 23 in Santa Clara County; and, 11 in San Mateo County. Most, about 80%, of the activity is in the less than $600,000 price range.

> Go, Monterey, go! Still setting records, Monterey County has seen record-breaking numbers of initiated sales (accepted contracts) and closings and even continues to out sell San Mateo County which is a larger market historically. As you might have guessed, most of the transactions in Monterey County are bank-owned or REO's after a flurry of affordable home building in the county a few years ago caused a tremendous over-supply of homes, especially along the 101 corridor. This has not occurred in Santa Clara, Santa Cruz or San Mateo counties. Still, this means that there are buyers, buyers with money and buyers with money who can get loans and lenders who are lending!

Thanks for reading -- what are your thoughts?

February Real Estate Market Highlights

Here are my observations of the recent market action in Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, San Mateo and Monterey counties. You are encouraged to leave your comments and questions or even update us on what you are witnessing in your neighborhood.

> Blame it on November -- Remember I said last month that "The market activity is turning around." There is a theory that we experienced higher closings in December because of the calendar. In looking at November, we didn't have any time to close transactions after Thanksgiving Day as county workers are still stuffed after the holiday. Whereas, there was a full week after Thanksgiving Day 2007. Everybody knows that Thanksgiving Day falls on the fourth Thursday of the month, right?

Can we also blame the calendar for less Christmas and Holiday sales? Maybe. Just think of this. In 2007, there were 32 days between Thanksgiving Day and Christmas. Last year, there were only 27! That's more than 15% fewer selling days.

> Sucked in by the touts you've heard that you can make a killing in real estate by buying property 40-50% under market? There are free seminars you can attend that "teach" you to do this. The catch -- you'll have to sign up for their $3,000 course because, of course, there's too much to provide you in the seminar. Folks, prices have already adjusted in many areas by 40% or more from their recent highs. What a willing, able buyer pays IS the market price!

> Want a property tax adjustment? Well, who doesn't! But, hold the phone. There are now firms that will charge you a fee of up to $179 for something that you can do for the county standard filing fee of $30! Santa Clara County is one of only a few counties out of 58 in California that are proactive when it comes to adjusting fair market values so they make the property tax rolls as accurate as possible. You'll receive a card from the county in a few months and if you think the assessment is too high, go to the Santa Clara County Tax Assessor's website. You can click on Assessment Appeals under Quicklinks to read how to apply, important dates for homeowners, etc.

> Closings of condos and townhouses continue to take a beating due to the improved affordability (read -- lower prices) of single family residences. January saw increased closings of single family residences of 68% over the same month a year ago. Condo and townhouse closings were up a mere 7%. If you don't like to mow lawns, in my professional opinion, there are currently better deals in condos/townhouses.

> Buyers wait for sellers to reduce list price. One of the indicators I follow constantly is the average sales price to list price ratio. This ratio, currently standing at 98.7%, means that the average transaction sells at only a 1.3% discount to list price. Buyers will wait until sellers adjust their list prices rather than put in ridiculous offers. High list prices, relative to the current market, on some homes are one big reason that some buyers wait, and wait, and wait!

> Market mix plays with median prices, revisited. As we said last month, market mix has helped to bring down median prices due to more low-priced homes closing as a percent of total closings. For instance, closings in East, Central and South San Jose (the more affordable areas in Santa Clara County) made up 12% of the total a year ago compared to 32% in January 2008. What would have occurred if we were to adjust for this significant change in mix? Well, the median price would have decreased about $200,000 due to this factor alone and real price depreciation would have accounted for the other $100,000 of the decrease. For the record, the median price in January 2008 was $743,500 whereas the median for January 2009 was $450,000.

> Another revisit? Can't sell your $5,000,000+ home? With the risk of bringing up another point raised last month, there have been no sales of any homes above $5,000,000 in now over nine weeks! There are 35 of them on the market as of 2/11/09, up from 27 the month before.

> Want to sell with multiple offers? The percent of completed sales or closings with a sold price greater than list price increases again and now stands at 37.4%. This means that more than one out of three sellers received more than their asking price. Oh, and 8.3% of sellers received list price.

> Record of sorts. Homes that closed in January had a median days on market (DOM) figure of 67, a record high. Compare that to those that were available to purchase having a median DOM of 100! This means that homes priced aggressively, well, sell.

> Investors, where are the investors? Multi-unit investor marketplace has had very few transactions with only 20 closings in January. Tougher lender requirements have contributed to this situation and probably can't leave out the stock market, too!

> Go, Monterey, go! Monterey County has seen way more closings than San Mateo County and again set another record high. Most of the transactions in Monterey County are bank-owned or REO's after a flurry of affordable home building in the county a few years ago caused a tremendous over-supply. This has not occurred in Santa Clara, Santa Cruz or San Mateo counties. Still, this means that there are buyers, buyers with money and buyers with money who can get loans!

Thanks for reading -- what are your thoughts?

Beware the Median Price Deception

As much as they would have you believe that home prices act like stock prices, don't buy it!

When a stock trades at a certain price (let's say, Google at $300 per share), all shares are valued at the current price. Hence, the "fair market value" of each of Google's approximately 315,000,000 shares outstanding equals $300.00.

However, not all homes sell each month. Determining the fair market value of a home becomes more of an analytical challenge.

In December, 676 single family homes closed escrow in Santa Clara County. The calculated median price (half above and half below or the middle transaction) came to $512,450. The figure is calculated on just what closed escrow in December, not a figure you can assign to all homes.

In the second half of 2007, when the sub-prime loan issues started to surface with a vengeance, the sales of lower-priced homes decreased significantly as a percent of the total homes as the mix of higher-priced homes expanded. What did this do to the median price? It jumped upwards!

Currently, we've witnessed a flurry of activity in the sales of lower-priced or affordable homes including bank-owned and "short sale" (preforeclosure) homes. This is the exact opposite affect of what occurred in the later part of 2007, as the percentage of lower-priced homes make up a greater percentage of the total closings which dramatically decreases the median price. We can estimate that if the mix of homes had remained the same, the median prices would have fallen about one-third of the amount of the total decrease. That means about two-thirds of the fall in the median price is due to the mix shifting toward the lower-priced homes.

My point is that median price statistics should not be used in isolation but in conjunction with well-researched and analyzed transactional data available to your friendly Realtor.

Understanding the shifts in the markets and changes in trends (the whys) form a major part in formulating the appropriate strategy your Realtor uses to advise clients on their purchase or sale in terms of timing and determining what I call the "relevant range" of fair market values.

For an update on the current market trends in Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz and Monterey counties, please click on my January Silicon Valley Market Update.



Thanks for reading!

December Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

This information summary and analysis uses MLS Listings Inc. (MLS) transactional data for November 2008. For single family homes in Santa Clara County, November saw an increase in closings of 7% from November 2007; closings of condos/townhouses saw a decrease of 16% in the same period. For single family residences, there were 613 closings in the month with 892 initiated sales (accepted offers). As you know, not all accepted offers result in a closing. Closings of single family homes also decreased in San Mateo County by 8%.

Inventory of available single family homes in Santa Clara County was 4,622, down 366 from last month but up 2% from the same month last year. San Mateo County inventory decreased by 222 to 1,432, and dropped 6% from November 2007. Similarly, Santa Cruz and Monterey counties show trends toward lower inventory levels.


Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) or the intersection of the inventory (supply) with the recent sales level (demand), shows Santa Clara County at 143 for single family residences and 173 for condos/townhouses, modest increases from last month. San Mateo County is at 127 and 160, respectively. Santa Cruz County has a DUI reading of 193 and 163, respectively. Monterey County showed DUI at 140 and 208, respectively. Please remember that a lower figure is good here and that a declining measure represents an improvement in the market. Clearly, these levels continue to indicate a buyer's market condition as a reading of DUI of 90 or above depicts. As a comparison, a seller's market will have a DUI of less than 45 and a balanced market will have a DUI between the two. Keep in mind that these are county-wide averages. The wider area you measure, the statistics are less reliable as a decision tool for any specific area or neighborhood and also that there is often an incredible variation between those areas experiencing terrible market conditions compared to those that are stable. That's why I've mentioned that those statistics presented in newspaper and online articles are so general as to not be of much use as a decision tool for an individual making a decision on a home purchase or sale in a particular area. Real estate is local (down to the neighborhood level in some cases) and market conditions can vary within each county and even within cities by a large amount. Recently, local real estate is even more important now than ever as we witness an even greater of discrepancies between the different areas.


The median price for single family homes in Santa Clara County now stands at $515,000, down 40.0% from $858,000 the same month a year ago and down 35.5% from the December 2007 reading of $799,000. These sudden changes in the median prices (first way up and now way down) show that the real culprit or cause is a shift in the mix of what is actually being sold. Currently, there are a large number of lower-priced homes that closed and thus make up a larger portion of the total sales. Before, we witnessed a mix shift toward the higher-priced homes and saw the median price spurt higher. If you want more detail please contact me. Recently, the stock market crash has caused a major pause in the real estate market but only in the moderately-priced and higher-priced areas. The most affordable priced areas haven't been affected! The bottom 10% median selling price (10th percentile) was $300,000 in November and showed a decline of 48.0% from the same month a year ago and the top 10% median price (90th percentile) was $1,079,000, saw a drop of 34.4% from November 2007.


The price range with the lowest DUI reading we call the "sweet-spot" of the market for single family homes continues to be the $450,000 and under range with a DUI reading of 90. Next comes the $450,000 to $600,000 range with a DUI reading of 133. For condo/townhouses the picture looks similar with the sweet-spot being the $300,000 and under range with a DUI reading of 130.

For real estate investment buyers, the DUI for residential investment property has dramatically decreased and in now at 302 versus 259 last month. This means under the current rate of sales of multi-unit properties, there are about 10 months of unsold supply versus 8.5 last month. This remains a prime period for negotiation with a buyer with preapproved financing and adequate investment funds. As mentioned before, many lenders have substantially increased the borrower's minimum requirements to obtain a loan for investment property purchases AND many are not allowing the use of home equity credit lines for their down payments so I forecast that this area will remain weak and characterized as a buyer's market. This remains an area of opportunity for smart, long term investors with adequate down payments that have an appropriate long-term investment horizon. Matter of fact, we now see much better rates of return on rentals than previous. Rental vacancies are relatively low and steady. This year, rents are estimated to increase 10-12% in Santa Clara County.


Why is following all these trends and statistics worth it? I believe that informed clients make the best decisions -- both buyers and sellers. The research and staying on top of the changes to market conditions allows me to properly advise my clients on the appropriate strategy to employ so that they make the best decision possible whether they decide to buy or sell. This is an example of how I invest my time to benefit my clients. Most other agents spend the bulk of their time working on self-promotion ads for newspapers, magazines and send you stuff that fill your mailbox. Beware the various media sound-bites or headlines as they generalize too much (i.e., the national real estate market, the Bay Area real estate market, etc.). If you generalize too much you lose the fineness of being able to use current information strategically to make better decisions.

If you're curious about market conditions in a specific area, please don't hesitate to give me a call. I review details of the supply and demand within the smallest area possible. With the credit situation we're experiencing, banks will be more aggressive in approving loan modifications which will slow down foreclosure activity. If you need advice regarding your loan situation, please give me a call and whatever you do, don't go to an intermediary trying to extract a price for something you can get for free! However, not all borrowers will qualify for a loan mod and so there will continue to be some bank-owned properties available in the future. I have access to four major sources of bank-owned homes so if you'd like to explore this area, please give me a call to set up an appointment.

Your comments are welcome! Please feel free to post them here or send me an email.

Thanks for reading!

November Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

This information summary and analysis uses MLS Listings Inc. (MLS) transactional data for October 2008. For single family homes in Santa Clara County, October saw an increase in closings of 41% from October 2007; closings of condos/townhouses saw an increase of 20% in the same period. There were 809 closings in the month with 1,073 initiated sales (accepted offers). As you know, not all accepted offers result in a closing. Closings of single family homes also increased in San Mateo County by 26%.

Inventory of available single family homes in Santa Clara County was 4,988, up a few from last month but up 5% from the same month last year. San Mateo County inventory increased by one to 1,654, but dropped 1% from October 2007. In Santa Cruz County, inventory trend has been slowly decreasing. Monterey County shows a steady trend toward lower inventory levels.


Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) or the intersection of the inventory (supply) with the recent sales level (demand), shows Santa Clara County at 140 for single family residences and 163 for condos/townhouses, modest increases from last month. San Mateo County is at 142 and 167, respectively. Santa Cruz County has a DUI reading of 193 and 172, respectively. Monterey County showed DUI at 135 and 197, respectively, and now sports the best DUI for single family homes of the four counties. Please remember that a lower figure is good here and that a declining measure represents an improvement in the market. Clearly, these levels continue to indicate a buyer's market condition as a reading of DUI of 90 or above depicts. As a comparison, a seller's market will have a DUI of less than 45 and a balanced market will have a DUI between the two. Keep in mind that these are county-wide averages. The wider area you measure, the statistics are less reliable as a decision tool for any specific area or neighborhood and also that there is often an incredible variation between those areas experiencing terrible market conditions compared to those that are stable. That's why I've mentioned that those statistics presented in newspaper articles are so general as to not be of use to an individual making a decision on a home in a particular area. Real estate is local (down to the neighborhood level in some cases) and market conditions can vary within each county and even within cities by a large amount.


The median price for single family homes in Santa Clara County was $550,000, down 36.2% from $861,500 the same month a year ago and down 31.2% from the December 2007 reading of $799,000. These sudden changes in the median prices from month to month show that there are many more lower-priced homes that closed, thus causing the drop in median and the mix of homes shifted from the higher-priced homes to the more affordable homes. Recently, the stock market crash has caused a major pause in the real estate market but only in the higher priced areas. The more affordable priced areas haven't been affected. The bottom 10% median selling price (10th percentile) was $329,600 in October and showed a decline of 44.6% from the same month a year ago and the top 10% median price (90th percentile) was $1,200,000, saw a drop of 31.2% from October 2007.


The price range with the lowest DUI reading we call the "sweet-spot" of the market for single family homes. For October, it was the $450,000 and under range with a DUI reading of 84. Next comes the $450,000 to $600,000 range with a DUI reading of 121. For condo/townhouses the picture looks similar with the sweet-spot being the $300,000 and under range with a DUI reading of 105.

For real estate investment buyers, the DUI for residential investment property has dramatically decreased and in now at 259 versus 316 last month. This means under the current rate of sales of multi-unit properties, there is about 8.5 months of unsold supply versus 11 last month! This remains a prime period for negotiation with a buyer whit preapproved financing and adequate investment funds. As mentioned before, many lenders have substantially increased the borrower's minimum requirements to obtain a loan for investment property purchases AND many are not allowing the use of home equity credit lines for their down payments so I forecast that this area will remain weak and characterized as a buyer's market. This remains an area of opportunity for smart, long term investors with adequate down payments that have an appropriate long-term investment horizon. Matter of fact, we now see much better rates of return on rentals than previous. Rental vacancies are relatively low and steady. This year, rents are estimated to increase 10-12% in Santa Clara County.


Why is following all these trends and statistics worth it? I believe that informed clients make the best decisions -- both buyers and sellers. The research and staying on top of the changes to market conditions allows me to properly advise my clients on the appropriate strategy to employ so that they make the best decision possible whether they decide to buy or sell. This is an example of how I invest my time to benefit my clients. Most other agents spend the bulk of their time working on self-promotion ads for newspapers, magazines and send you stuff that fill your mailbox with either "brag" cards or "spray and pray" cards. Beware the various media sound-bites or headlines as they generalize too much (i.e., the national real estate market, the Bay Area real estate market, etc.). If you generalize too much you lose the fineness of being able to use current information strategically to make better decisions.

If you're curious about market conditions in a specific area, please don't hesitate to give me a call. With the credit situation we're experiencing, banks will be more aggressive in approving loan modifications which will slow down foreclosure activity. However, not all borrowers will qualify for a loan mod and so there will continue to be some bank-owned properties available in the future. I have access to four major sources of bank-owned homes so if you'd like to explore this area, please give me a call to set up an appointment.

Your comments are welcome! Please feel free to post them here or send me an email.

Thanks for reading!