Saturday, July 26, 2008

Silicon Valley Community Calendar -- August

Here is an update to some of the events and on-going programs you might want to put on your calendar for August. Most of these are selections from Sunnyvale and Cupertino but other communities in Silicon Valley may be included (e.g., Mountain View, Santa Clara, Palo Alto).

  • August 2: Stress, Breath & You, 2-3:30pm, Sunnyvale Public Library, 408-730-7300 or www.sunnyvalelibrary.org
  • August 2, 9, 16, 23, 30: Sunnyvale Farmer's Market, 9:00am, 510-745-7100
  • August 2-3: Relay for Life, 10am, Sunnyvale Middle School track and field, 1080 Mango Avenue, American Cancer Society fundraiser, 408-688-0108
  • August 3, 10, 17, 24, 31: Fair Oaks Toastmasters, 11:30am
  • August 4: Board of Library Sunnyvale Trustee’s Meeting, 7pm
  • August 5: Book Networking, 2-3:30pm, Sunnyvale Public Library, 408-730-7300
  • August 5: National Night Out, 7pm, Neighborhoods throughout Sunnyvale are invited to join forces with thousands of communities nationwide for 25th annual crime and drug prevention event, Sunnyvale Public Safety, 408-730-7117 or www.nationalnightout.org/nno
  • August 6, 13, 20, 27: Kiwanis Club of Silicon Valley, 7:20am, 408-774-0609
  • August 6: American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), monthly meeting, 1:30pm, 408-296-3805
  • August 6: Downtown Music and Market Series, Double Funk Crunch, 5-8pm, 408-516-7217
  • August 6: American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), monthly meeting, 1:30pm, 408-296-3805
  • August 6: Heritage Preservation Commission Meeting, 7pm
  • August 7: SNAIL Neighborhood Association, monthly, 7pm
  • August 8: Heritage District Neighborhood Association Monthly Meeting, 7pm
  • August 11: San Miguel Neighbors Association, General Meeting, 7pm
  • August 11: Planning Commission Meeting, 8pm
  • August 12: Sunnyvale City Council Meeting, 7pm
  • August 13: Chocolate Extravaganza, 3pm, Sunnyvale Public Library, 408-730-7300
  • August 13: Downtown Music and Market Series, Busta Groove, 5-8pm, 408-516-7217
  • August 13: Sunnyvale Parks and Recreation Commission Meeting, 7pm
  • August 13: Lakewood Village Neighborhood Association, monthly, 7pm
  • August 14: WakeUp Sunnyvale!, Sunnyvale Chamber of Commerce Networking Breakfast, 7:29am, 408-736-4971
  • August 14: WildLife Associates presents Creepy Critters, 2pm, Sunnyvale Public Library, 408-730-7300
  • August 16: Compost Workshop, 10am
  • August 16: Household Hazardous Waste Drop-Off, 8am-1pm, Sunnyvale residents, 408-730-7262, TDD 408-730-7501
  • August 18: Personnel Board Meeting, Sunnyvale, 5pm
  • August 19: City Council Meeting, 7pm
  • August 20: Downtown Music and Market Series, Manicato, 5-8pm, 408-516-7217
  • August 20: Arts Commission Meeting, 7pm
  • August 20: Glaucoma Support Group of the South Bay, 6:30pm, 408-523-3221 or 408-404-8479
  • August 21: Sunnyvale Bicycle & Pedestrian Advisory Commission Meeting, 6:30pm
  • August 25: Planning Commission Meeting, Sunnyvale, 8pm
  • August 27: Housing and Human Services Commission Meeting, 7pm
  • August 27: Downtown Music and Market Series, The Groove Kings, 5-8pm, 408-516-7217

  • Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays: Computer and E-Waste Recycling, 8:00am-4:30pm, Cupertino proof of residency
  • Every Wednesday: Silicon Valley Toastmasters, 5pm, 260 S. Sunnyvale Avenue, Suite 4, Sunnyvale
  • Every Saturday: Family Astronomy Evenings, De Anza College Planetarium, 6:00pm, 7:00pm or 8:00pm, Cupertino
  • Every Second Monday of Month: Fine Arts League of Cupertino, Quinlan Community Center, 7:00pm

Thanks for reading!

Monday, July 14, 2008

Median Price Comparison Tables for Silicon Valley

Here are some calculations I made comparing June 2008 with June 2007 median prices for both single family and condos/townhouses. These data are from the MLSListings statistics of actual transactions in both months.

Newspaper articles utilize data from DataQuick, a firm that compiles property transfer information for it's subscribers. The problem with DataQuick information is that they first combine all transfers of single family homes, condos and townhouses, mobile homes. In addition, DataQuick includes transfers that are NOT sales like transfers in a divorce and family transfers where parents transfer property to their children where there is no money changing hands. For example, in a divorce a court may order a spouse to transfer a home to the other spouse for $120,000 when the market value of the home was closer to $800,000. In a family transfer where there is no property tax reassessment, these values are recorded at a zero value. These "transactions" or transfers are part of DataQuick's database and are counted as $120,000 and $0, respectively! DataQuick provides subscribers like the San Jose Mercury News this information. MLSListings, on the other hand, captures only actual sales transactions that are based on a buyer willing to step up and put money toward the purchase of a home -- a far more reliable an indicator of market value.

It used to be that when real estate prices decreased, the higher-priced homes went down a higher percentage than lower-priced homes. Well, we have witnessed in the recent past that this has not been the case with this adjustment period. The phrase "location, location, location" used for real estate is an even more important attribute to consider as there is a wider gap between the affordable and expensive homes.

In the tables below, notice the wide variances between the types of properties as well as within the different counties. Another interesting comparison is the difference between the percentage changes from the lowest 10% (10th percentile) and the highest 10% (90th percentile), especially in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties but also evident in Santa Cruz and Monterey counties.


Single Family -

Median Prices

Santa Clara

San Mateo

Santa Cruz

Monterey

Lowest 10%

-33.9%

-22.5%

-29.5%

-50.0%

Median 50%

-13.3%

-10.7%

-21.8%

-49.2%

Highest 10%

-3.4%

-3.8%

-9.9%

-7.2%

Condo/Townhouse

Median Prices

Santa Clara

San Mateo

Santa Cruz

Monterey

Lowest 10%

-36.6%

-26.7%

-25.3%

-64.9%

Median 50%

-15.4%

-15.7%

-29.9%

-21.2%

Highest 10%

+13.1%

-9.8%

-4.4%

-29.9%


That positive number for Santa Clara condos/townhouses is not a misprint. There is actual price appreciation in the highest 10% (90th percentile) due mainly to the mix of where these transactions occurred. You probably guessed it -- in the more expensive areas.

Please let me know if you have any comments or questions. Thanks for reading!

Thursday, July 10, 2008

July Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

This information summary and analysis uses MLS Listings Inc. (MLS) transactional data for June 2008. For single family homes in Santa Clara County, June saw a reduction of closings of 5% from June 2007. There were 927 closings in the month with 1281 initiated sales (accepted offers) that indicates that closings in July will likely continue higher. This drop in closings from last year occurred also in San Mateo County of 18.2% and Santa Cruz County of 6.1%. In Monterey, however, closings set a record of 257, 110% higher than June 2007. All counties registered more closings than in May.


Inventory of available single family homes in Santa Clara County was 5,342, down from a record-high of 5,540 set in April and up from 3,963 in June 2007. San Mateo County reached an all-time high of 1,720 in May but dropped to 1,639 for June. Both Santa Cruz and Monterey counties numbers of available homes dropped from last month but are still near their all-time highs.


Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) or the intersection of the inventory (supply) with the recent sales level (demand), shows Santa Clara County at 125, an improvement from 130 last month and 117 compared to June 2007. San Mateo County is at 95, down from 99 last month. Santa Cruz County has a DUI reading of 145, down from 147 last month. Monterey County showed DUI at 146, also down from 159 last month. Please remember that a lower figure is good here and that a declining measure represents an improvement in the market. Clearly, even with the drops in this indicator, these still are indicating a buyer's market condition as a reading of DUI of 90 or above depicts. For comparison, a seller's market will have a DUI of less than 45 and a balanced market will have a DUI between the two. Keep in mind that these are county-wide averages. The wider area you measure, the statistics are less reliable as a decision tool for any specific area or neighborhood and also that there is often an incredible variation between those areas experiencing terrible market conditions compared to those at virtually the other extreme. As I've mentioned, real estate is local (down to the neighborhood level in some cases) and market conditions can vary within each county and even within cities by a large amount. For instance, within Santa Clara County, Sunnyvale has the best market climate in the county with a DUI reading of 49, on the cusp of a seller's market and down from 74 last month, while Morgan Hill, San Martin and Gilroy have the worst reading of 185, dropping from 187 last month. The following table is a ranking of Santa Clara County cities or areas with their current DUI readings compared to last month's calculation as well as my notations as to the type of market the area is in (seller's, balanced or buyer's) and the recent direction of change in this indicator. Even though there are a lot of "better" notations made, many of these areas are still in what we call a "buyer's market" and have poor market climates. Just some markets are much better off than others.

Mountain View, Los Altos, Palo Alto

52

59

Balanced/BETTER

Cupertino

70

54

Balanced/WORSE

Sunnyvale

49

75

Balanced/BETTER

Santa Teresa

81

96

Balanced/BETTER

North Valley

76

104

Balanced/BETTER

Campbell

94

128

Buyer's/BETTER

Santa Clara

97

109

Buyer's/BETTER

Cambrian

107

136

Buyer's/BETTER

Almaden Valley

100

90

Buyer's/WORSE

Blossom Valley

88

107

Balanced/BETTER

South San Jose

94

169

Buyer's/BETTER

Willow Glen

107

148

Buyer's/BETTER

Milpitas

78

120

Balanced/BETTER

Los Gatos

135

120

Buyer's/WORSE

Evergreen

114

138

Buyer's/BETTER

Downtown SJ

133

176

Buyer's/BETTER

East Valley

123

180

Buyer's/BETTER

Saratoga

135

145

Buyer's/BETTER

Morgan Hill/Gilroy

185

245

Buyer's/BETTER

Los Gatos Mountains

539

223

Buyer's/WORSE


The median price for single family homes in Santa Clara County was $750,000 down from $865,000 the same month a year ago which was just off our record high of $868,406 set in April 2007 and down 6.1% from the December 2007 reading of $799,000. There is still an emphasis (overweighted percentage) of higher-priced homes sold as opposed to the more affordable homes but not as pronounced as last year when the sub-prime loan problems started in February 2007 and really took hold last August when mortgage interest rates jumped upwards, especially for jumbo size loans. The bottom 10% median selling price was $420,000 in June and showed a decline of 33.9% from the same month a year ago and the top 10% median price was $1,663,600 only saw a drop of 3.4% from June 2007. The northwest quadrant of the county including Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos, Cupertino and parts of Sunnyvale (zip 94086 and 94087) are at or near their all time highs while county-wide medians are down. With few exceptions, the single family home markets become weaker when you cross Lawrence Expressway heading east. Median price comparisons for single family homes by county for June 2008 were:

County

June 2008

June 2007

Percentage Change

SANTA CLARA

$750,000

$865,000

-13.3%

SAN MATEO

892,500

999,000

-10.7

SANTA CRUZ

610,000

780,000

-21.8

MONTEREY

364,000

717,000

-49.2

I thought it interesting to present the following table that shows the June 2008 change from record high median prices for each county. Of particular note is the extreme price adjustment that has been going on in Monterey County.

County

May 2008

Record High (m/y)

Percentage Change

SANTA CLARA

$750,000

$868,406 (4/07)

-13.6%

SAN MATEO

892,500

1,026,282 (10/07)

-13.0

SANTA CRUZ

610,000

790,000 (8/07)

-22.8

MONTEREY

364,000

799,500 (8/07)

-54.5



The price range with the lowest DUI reading we call the "sweet-spot" of the market for single family homes. For June, it changed to the $750,000 to $1,000,000 range. Next comes the under $450,000 range. For condo/townhouses the picture is similar but slightly better with a DUI reading of 125, an improvement from 155 last month with a sweet-spot being the $1,000,000 to $2,500,000 range followed by the $600,000 to $750,000 range.

Potential real estate investment buyers continue to see poor numbers for multiunit properties at475. This means under the current rate of sales of multi-unit properties, there are about 1.30 years of unsold supply! Better opportunity to negotiate. The "sweet-spot" of the multi-unit or investor class is in the range of $600,000 to $750,000 range. Lenders have substantially increased the borrower's minimum requirements to obtain a loan for investor property purchases AND many are not allowing the use of home equity credit lines for their down payments so I forecast that this area will remain weak and characterized as a buyer's market. This remains an area of opportunity for smart, long term investors with adequate down payments. Rental vacancies are relatively low and dropping and we see strong increases in rental rates continue. In Santa Clara County, rents are estimated to increase 10-12% in 2008.


Why is following all these trends and statistics worth it? I believe that informed clients make the best decisions. The research and staying on top of the changes to market conditions allows me to properly advise my clients on the appropriate strategy to employ so that they make the best decision possible whether they decide to buy or sell. This is one area I part company from most other real estate agents as only a relative handful of agents invest the time to study the trends. Most other agents spend the bulk of their time working on self-promotion ads for newspapers, magazines and stuff that fill your mailbox with either "brag" cards or "spray and pray" cards. Beware the various media sound-bites or headlines as they generalize too much (i.e., the national real estate market, the Bay Area real estate market, etc.). If you generalize too much you lose the fineness of being able to use current information strategically to make better decisions.

If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to post them here or send me an email at tom.mcevoy@remax.net.

Thanks for reading!

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Fourth of July Fireworks Events

What's a Fourth of July celebration of Independence Day without fireworks? Well, here are some Bay Area events that will feature fireworks displays that begin at dusk or about 9:30pm. Some may require an admission fee.

  • City of Santa Clara Fourth of July All-City Picnic: pancake breakfast followed by entertainment and family activities. 8am-5pm, July 4, Central Park, 909 Kiely Blvd., fireworks at 9:30pm. 408-615-3140
  • Milpitas Independence Day festivities: pool party with music and food from 1-5pm, July 4. Fireworks begin at 9:30pm, Milpitas Sports Center, 1325 E. Calaveras Blvd. 408-586-3210
  • Morgan Hill Independence Day Celebrations: street dancing with music, food and beverages, 5-9pm, July 3rd, downtown Morgan Hill
  • Morgan Hill Independence Day celebration with pancake breakfast at 7am, 5K run/walk, parade, First and Monterey at 10am. Fireworks begin at dusk at Community Park, West Edmundson Avenue and Olympic Drive, 7am-11pm, July 4. 408-710-5467
  • San Jose America Festival: 19th annual crafts, multicultural entertainment, food, beverages, children's activities, Noon-10:30pm, July 4. Fireworks begin at 9:30pm, Discovery Meadow, Woz Way and San Carlos Street.
  • San Jose Giants Fireworks Extravaganza: after the game which start at 6:30pm, July 4 and July 5. Requires admittance to the game. Fireworks begin after the conclusion of each game.
  • Spirit of America Church on the Hill Celebration: family fun, games and fireworks displays, 5-10pm, July 4, 500 Sands Drive, San Jose, $2. 408-265-9000
  • Redwood City Independence Day Festival and Parade: live music, arts and crafts, food and beverages, and children's activities. Parade route begins at Brewster near Winslow, 9am-5pm, July 4. Fireworks will accompany music at 9:30pm, Marshall and Jefferson streets. 650-365-1825
  • The San Francisco Symphony 4th of July Fireworks Spectacular: "A Salute to Heroes", featuring music from Rocky, Apollo 13, Superman and Lincoln Portrait. Opens at 5pm, July 4, symphony performance 8pm, fireworks after the performance, Shoreline Amphitheatre Parkway, 1 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, $29.50, $15 children, $24 lawn. 415-864-6000
  • San Francisco Fourth of July Waterfront Celebration: music and viewing of fireworks display over San Francisco Bay, 1-9:30pm, July 4. Fireworks begin at 9:30pm, Pier 39, Beach Street and the Embarcadero, Free. 415-705-5500

Enjoy your Fourth of July! Thanks for reading!