Silicon Valley Real Estate Trends

With continued low inventory levels and higher demand from buyers, the April median price in the Silicon Valley real estate market jumped to their highest level since 2007 to $800,000 for a single family residence -- up 24% from the same month a year ago.

Similarly, the median price in April for condos and townhouses in Santa Clara County was $510,000, compared to $349,000 the same month a year ago which was a phenomenal 46% change.

For San Mateo County, the San Mateo real estate trends showed the April median price at $956,000, compared to $760,000, last year or a 25.8% increase.

As you know, a median price figure is the middle transaction so this statistical calculation won't necessarily translate into an across the board increase for each and every home.  What it does indicate is a strong market pressure and an upward trend for the Silicon Valley real estate market.

The frequency of the sale prices exceeding list prices is 73% in Santa Clara County and 68% in San Mateo County.  An indicator of the magnitude shows that the sale price to list price ratio averages 106.1% and 105.8% in Santa Clara County and San Mateo County, respectively.

An indicator I track closely in addition to the above ones, is the median days on market.  This represents how long it takes for one-half of the listings to sell.  In Santa Clara County, it is 10 days but just 9 in the Cupertino and Sunnyvale market area (hottest area in the county with a median sale price of $1,223,000) to 17 in the South County area which comprises Morgan Hill to Gilroy with a median sale price of $629,000.  For the current San Mateo real estate trends, it is but 11 days.

If a listing lingers on the market significantly longer than the median, well then it is a candidate for an analysis to determine the possible cause(s) including price, condition, marketing, etc.

As the old Meat Loaf song went, "two out of three ain't bad".  The last three buyers I helped recently, two strategies out of the three were successful.  In the first one, with multiple offers, my advice to my buyers was to offer in a range above list price and doing so beat out the second-place offer by just $1,000 with eight offers and a sale price over $800,000.  In the second transaction, the strategy devised by and used by my buyers failed.  They calculated a dollars per square foot against comparable homes.  For residential, this approach only works when you get lucky as in winning the lotto but I use this in addition to other aspects in my commercial transactions.  Their offer came in tenth out of ten and they missed purchasing a beautiful home by over $100,000.  For the third one, my buyer listened and followed my advice to offer in a range above list price and even though he didn't have the highest priced offer, the seller did accept his offer and closed recently.  For this one, there was more to my strategy than just price so on that basis, he won.  In the two successes, I not only gave advice on the minimum but on the maximum to pay for the home.  By the way, my long-term average performance is a success rate of 60% so these last three upped my average slightly!

In the last few weeks, I've noticed a change in the market in the favor of the buyers!  Many homes have generated multiple offers but not to the extent that we saw in the early part of the year.  This is in keeping with the historical tendency as we near Memorial Day weekend that buyers decide they have other things to do -- e.g., graduations, weddings, anniversaries, planning for vacation when school gets out, etc.  Also noted is that the inventory levels or those homes available to purchase have risen lately, affording more choices for buyers.  For single family residences, the highest inventory in seven months and for condos and townhouses, the highest level in eleven months!

Notwithstanding my prior comments about the market conditions during April, buyers that have pulled back from actively looking for a home for whatever reason, now stand a much better chance of being able to buy with less competition than in the recent past.  Mortgage rates still remain favorable but have nudged up a bit but still in artificially low levels as the Feds continue to purchase a mixture of U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to the tune of about $85 billion per month!  Their most recent comments contain a lot of double-speak thus raising the risk of a change in their programs -- e.g., less buying and the risk of higher mortgage rates.  In following the money, a lot of the funds created in the banking system have gone into asset categories like stocks and real estate (Google recently hit $900 and LinkedIn $200).  This is the "new" way the government prints money.

Please leave a comment or question if there is something you'd like to hear more about or would like information about the market in your neighborhood or contact me through my website or send me an email.  Thank you for reading!

April Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Here are my observations of the most recent March transactions for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website or send me an email.

General Market Observations and Comments -- Inventory, those homes available for sale have continued to increase, but remain well below the average level for this time of year.  In Santa Clara County, there were just 908 single family residences on the market versus 857 last month. In San Mateo County, there were 446 compared to 433. These levels are running about 50% of the average over the last 10+ years!

The median days on the market or what it takes to sell one-half of those on the market, sell in just 11 days in Santa Clara County and 12 days in San Mateo County -- indicating a hot seller's market. For March, 792 homes closed escrow last month in Santa Clara County, up from 621 in February and 333 did so in San Mateo County versus 247 last month. Comparing March of 2013 with previous Marches, this month was the third slowest in terms of closings.  

Both counties continue to have the characteristics of a seller's market generally. During March, more than half of the closings had a sales price greater than a list price (68% in Santa Clara County and 62% in San Mateo County with both percentages increasing from February). For owners thinking of selling, it is important to understand the market dynamics in their particular market area. For many, this remains an excellent time to sell.

Seller's -- Should You List on the MLS or Not? --  More recently, we've run into listings that are "not advertised" and not on the MLS (Multiple Listing Service).  I advise my sellers that in order to assure the maximum exposure to the market, it is imperative to have their home on the MLS.  That way, all agents may be exposed to it.  If not, we call those listings "pocket" listings.  The term denotes that the listing is for the listing agent/broker only and its purpose is to increase the likelihood that that listing agent will handle both sides of the transaction, not to get the maximum price and best terms for the seller!  As listing agents, we Realtors sign an agency relationship form that states the agent will use full fiduciary duties to their client but pocket listings don't adhere to this as it doesn't place their client's interest before their own.  Be wary of agents advising NOT to list it on the MLS which is designed to open up the market and as a result is a benefit to the seller.  This might be used in an extreme circumstance.  For example, when a famous personality wants to sell but there are still ways to circumvent this approach that gives the seller access to the entire market.  Watch out for the legal battles when sellers who have been told that they will receive market value without the "mess" of having their home on the market only to find out they've been financially sucker-punched.   

Hot, Hotter, Hottest Market Areas -- In Santa Clara County, the hottest market area is Cupertino, Sunnyvale (zip codes 95014, 94086, 94087). It sports a median sale price of $1,245,000 and has a median days on market of just 9 days! A hotter market is Los Altos and Palo Alto with a median sale price of $2,288,000 has a median days on market of 10. Only a hot market is Santa Clara, Willow Glen, Cambrian and Campbell with a median sale price of $750,000 and has a median days on market also of 10.  

Beautiful and Abundant Trees - Los Altos, CA

For San Mateo County, the hottest market area is Foster City and Redwood Shores with a median sale price of $1,006,000 and a median days on market of 10, followed by a hotter market of the Bay Cities area including Belmont, Burlingame, Milbrae, San Carlos, San Mateo with a median sale price of $1,051,000 and a median days on the market of 10.   

Median Prices are Jumping -- The trends of median prices of single family, condo and townhouse homes continue upwards. For single family residences, March saw Santa Clara County's median price, half above and half below or the middle transaction, at $731,000 and the median sales price for San Mateo County increased to $950,000. The upwards trend has been evident since the Spring of 2009. By the way, market bottoms were also established during this time in both stock indices and commodities.

Recent Overbidding Levels Remain High -- The percentage where sale price is greater than list price gives us an indication of the incidence of multiple offers. Already mentioned is the frequency of overbidding (sale price greater than list price 68% of the time in Santa Clara County and 62% in San Mateo County) but a more telling aspect is the magnitude or sales price to list price ratio (SP/LP). In Santa Clara County, the average SP/LP ratio is 105.2 or in the average transaction the seller gets 5.2% above the list price. Hottest area is Los Altos and Palo Alto with 109.7. The Cupertino and Sunnyvale market area was just behind with a ratio of 108.9. In San Mateo County the numbers look similar. Overall, the county average is 104.8 and the highest is Bay Cities market area of Belmont, Burlingame, Millbrae, San Carlos, San Mateo with 107.4.

Yahoo! World Headquarters - Sunnyvale, CA

Thanks for reading! I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- On Google+ at +Tom McEvoy. Let me know if you have any comments, questions, observations or any future topics you'd like me to address.

March Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Here are my observations of the most recent February transactions for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website or send me an email.

General Market Observations and Comments -- Even though the amount of homes (single family and condos and townhouses) available for sale have increased, they are still historically low. In Santa Clara County, there were just 857 single family residences on the market versus 727 last month. In San Mateo County, there were 433 compared to 394. Half of those on the market sell in 11 days in Santa Clara County and 13 days in San Mateo County. This is termed median days on market. I think the inventory will continue to drift upwards as we enter Spring which will give some more choices to buyers who have been placed at a disadvantage. Still, 621 homes closed escrow last month in Santa Clara County and 247 did so in San Mateo County. Both counties have the characteristics of a seller's market in most market areas but not all. During February, more than half of the closings had a sales price greater than a list price (63% in Santa Clara County and 60% in San Mateo County). Both of these percentages have continued their trend upwards. For owners thinking of selling, it is important to understand the market dynamics in their particular market area. For many, this remains a very good time to sell.

What Does $85 Billion a Month Buy You? --  No this isn't some ultra-high rental or even a super high mortgage payment. This is what the Federal Reserve (FED) is paying for by buying mortgage-back securities each month!  Well, the sellers get cash and the cash has to go somewhere. If the banks are paying close to zero interest as are the money market funds, these funds are flowing into assets -- namely, stocks, commodities and real estate. If an investor can't get any yield in his or her CD at the bank, they buy an asset they hope could go up in price.

Hot, Hotter, Hottest Market Areas -- In Santa Clara County, the hottest market area is Cupertino, Sunnyvale (zip codes 95014, 94086, 94087). It sports a median sale price of $1,232,000 and has a median days on market of just 9 days! A hotter market is Los Altos and Palo Alto with a median sale price of $2,019,000 has a median days on market of 10. Only a hot market is Los Gatos, Monte Sereno and Saratoga with a median sale price of $1,521,000 and has a median days on market of 37, historically hot for this area.  

For San Mateo County, the hottest market area is Foster City and Redwood Shores with a median sale price of $1,270,000 and a median days on market of 11, followed by a hotter market of North County cities of Brisbane, Colma, Daly City, Pacifica, San Bruno, South San Francisco. The hot market is the expensive areas of Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Hillsborough, Woodside. The median sale price in this area is $2,588,000 and has a median days on market of 20, 

Median Prices are Jumping -- The trends of median prices of single family, condo and townhouse homes march upwards. For single family residences, February saw Santa Clara County's median price, half above and half below or the middle transaction, at $713,000 and the median sales price for San Mateo County increased to $820,000. The upwards trend has been evident since the Spring of 2009. By the way, market bottoms were also established during this time in both stock indices and commodities.

Recent Overbidding Levels Remain High -- The percentage where sale price is greater than list price gives us an indication of the incidence of multiple offers. Already mentioned is the frequency of overbidding (sale price greater than list price 63% of the time in Santa Clara County and 60% in San Mateo County) but a more telling aspect is the magnitude or sales price to list price ratio (SP/LP). In Santa Clara County, the average SP/LP ratio is 103.9% or in the average transaction the seller gets 3.9% above the list price. Hottest area is Cupertino and Sunnyvale with 110.0. In San Mateo County the numbers look similar. Overall, the average is 104.6 and the highest is Bay Cities market area of Belmont, Burlingame, Milbrae, San Carlos, San Mateo with 107.5.

Murphy Avenue called Murphy Street in Sunnyvale, CA

Distress Property in Decline -- In Santa Clara County, there were just 4% of the available listings that were short sales and 4% bank-owned which means regular listings accounted for more than 90%! This is a far cry from even last year when these combined for a quarter of the listings. 

What Will Mortgage Rates Do? -- Those with an adjustable rate mortgage might want to think about a refinance in the not too distant future. Yes, the FED has been trying to maintain a low-rate environment by the purchase of mortgage-backed securities with the expressed purpose of keeping rates low to spur the economy. Problem is that those funds have and are moving into assets -- stocks, commodities and real estate. The economy can't "absorb" these funds as companies wait to get more understanding of the moving target of tax increases and a higher level of regulation (Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, to name a couple) overhanging the economy, not to mention the huge budget deficits which imply higher taxes ahead. 

So, in answer to the question, yes, they will go up. It could occur relatively quickly when the FED senses there is more inflation than they are willing to tolerate or when investors demand higher yields on government securities to compensate for a perceived higher level of risk and/or the real or potential for increased inflation. The FED has had a history of either too much/too long of money creation or ratcheting up rates too far/too long to squeeze the economy.

Thanks for reading! I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- On Google+ at +Tom McEvoy. Let me know if you have any comments, questions, observations or any future topics you'd like me to address.

February Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Here are my observations of the most recent January 2013 transactions for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website or send me an email.

General Market Observations and Comments -- At the end of the year the amount of homes  (single family and condos and townhouses) available broke new record low levels! In Santa Clara County, there were just 727 single family residences on the market, 394 in San Mateo County. Even though the amount of available homes for sale seemingly jumped from the levels witnessed at year end, they're climbing from record lows! The average annual cycle sees inventory build from early in the year so we're experiencing that once again. The current market condition continues to place most buyers at a disadvantage. Still, 522 homes closed escrow last month in Santa Clara County and 234 did so in San Mateo County. Both counties have the characteristics of a seller's market in most market areas but not all. During January, more than half of the closings had a sales price greater than a list price (55% in Santa Clara County and 53% in San Mateo County). It bears repeating that a well-priced listing has a tendency to develop more activity and have a much higher chance of generating multiple offers. For owners thinking of selling, it is a very good time to sell.

Which Half Are You? --  In January, it took just 16 days to sell half of the homes in Santa Clara County and 17 in San Mateo County! Keep in mind that these are countywide averages and both saw a slight increase from from the month prior. This is not to infer that the market is cooling down. Quite the contrary, even though it's cold outside, generally, the real estate markets are HOT!

In Santa Clara County, the fastest market area is Santa Clara, Willow Glen, Cambrian, Campbell with a median sale price of $703,000 has a median days on market of just 12 days followed closely by Cupertino and Sunnyvale (zip codes 95014, 94087, 94086) with a median sale price of $1,123,000 has a median days on market of 13. The slowest is East, Central, South San Jose with a median price of $403,000 has a median days on market of 30. For San Mateo County, the fastest market area is the Bay Cities of Belmont, Burlingame, Millbrae, San Carlos, San Mateo with a median sale price of $940,000 has a median days on market of 14 whereas the slowest is the expensive areas of San Mateo County comprising the communities of Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Hillsborough with a median sale price of $2,036 has  median days on market of 52.

Median Prices Continue to Increase -- The trend of median prices of single family, condo and townhouse homes continue upwards. For single family residences, January saw Santa Clara County's median price, half above and half below or the middle transaction, at $661,000 and the median sales price for San Mateo County decreased slightly to $715,000 from the previous month. The upwards trend has been evident since the Spring of 2009 --  not in a straight line but a varied line.

Recent Overbidding Levels Remain High -- The percentage where sale price is greater than list price gives us an indication of multiple offers. The talked about the frequency of overbidding (sale price greater than list price 55% of the time in Santa Clara County and 53% in San Mateo County) but a more telling aspect is the magnitude or sales price to list price ratio (SP/LP). In Santa Clara County, the average SP/LP ratio is 102.4% or in the average transaction the seller gets 2.4% above the list price. Hottest area is Cupertino and Sunnyvale with 106.0. In San Mateo County the numbers look similar. Overall, the average is 102.4 and the highest is Foster City/Redwood Shores with 104.9.

Murphy Avenue called Murphy Street in Sunnyvale, CA

Distress Property in Decline -- In Santa Clara County, there were just 4% of the available listings that were short sales and 4% bank-owned which means regular listings accounted for more than 90%! This is a far cry from even last year when these combined for a quarter of the listings. 

 

Mortgage Rates Bottom? -- While mortgage rates remain at or near recent lows, buyers contemplating a purchase may be surprised to learn that rates have moved up. A new issue of U.S. Treasury 10-year notes were sold at a price to yield 2.02%. This is an increase from the record low of about 1.50%.  The Fed continues to monitize debt (buy mortgage-backed and other debt-securities to the tune of about $85 billion a month -- an annual rate of $1+ trillion). This puts money into the banking system and investors have to put it somewhere. Since the economy remains generally sluggish, the money predominately ends up in assets (e.g., stocks, commodities and yes, real estate). It remains long-term prudent to lock in rates before the market moves much farther away from these levels.

Thanks for reading! I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- On Google+ at +Tom McEvoy. Let me know if you have any comments, questions, observations or any future topics you'd like me to address.

Posted by Tom McEvoy, Realtor at 3:57 PM

World Class Chocolates and More in the Valley of Hearts Delight

You've made dinner reservations at a romantic restaurant (I did at MacArthur Park in Palo Alto - and you might have picked up a little something for her at her favorite store, perhaps even some nice long-stems. Of course, there's always sweets for your Sweets for Valentine's Day.

Here is a selection of some world class chocolatiers from Sunnyvale, Saratoga, Los Gatos and Santa Cruz:


Chocolate Dream Box - Handcrafted European style chocolates specializing in gifts for holidays such as Valentine's Day

* 710 Blossom Hill Road, Los Gatos. 408-356-2626 


Fleur e Cocoa Patisserie Chocolaterie - Offering cakes, pastries, chocolates, light lunch & more

* 39 N. Santa Cruz Avenue, Los Gatos. 408-354-3574 


Richard Donnelly Chocolates - Handmade, award winning chocolates

* 1509 Mission Street, Santa Cruz. 888-685-1871 

Saratoga Chocolates

* 14572-B Big Basin Way, Saratoga. 408-872-1431 


Chocolatier Desiree - Featuring Belgian chocolates

* 165 S. Murphy Avenue, #C, Sunnyvale, CA 94086 408-306-3127 


Shokolaat - CLOSED on July 1, 2012.  If you have purchased or received a gift certificate please email them a scanned copy of the gift certificate at shokolaatpaloalto@shokolaat.com and they will refund your gift certificate in full.

SBF - 12 Piece Box Set

Sugar Butter Flour - (SBF) Desserts, chocolates & more

* 669 S. Bernardo Avenue, Sunnyvale. 408-732-8597 

How About Wine with Chocolate? Selections from Los Gatos and San Jose...

Testarossa Vineyards
Testarossa Vineyards (formerly Novitiate of Los Gatos Winery) is hosting a wine, cheese and chocolate tasting on Saturday, February 11th from 11:00am to 4:00pm. Reservations strongly recommended at 408-354-6150 x21 or email tastingroom@testarossa.com.

J. Lohr Winery
Valentine's Day Dinner, Thursday, February 14th is unfortunately SOLD OUT. Keep them in mind for another day/year!  For instance, they have wine and cheese pairings on most Fridays!




Happy Valentine's Day!

January Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Here are my observations of the most recent December 2012 transactions for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website or send me an email.

General Market Observations and Comments -- At the end of the year the amount of homes  (single family and condos and townhouses) available broke new record low levels! In Santa Clara County, there were just 534 single family residences on the market, 293 in San Mateo County. Part of this is due to the seasonality aspect as inventory trends decrease toward the end of the year and the other is that this continues the trend set in motion from the early part of  last year. Lowered inventory usually advantages sellers but that doesn't mean buyer are not buying. In fact, 830 homes closed escrow last month in Santa Clara County and 317 did so in San Mateo County. Both counties have the characteristics of a seller's market in most market areas but not all. During December, more than half of the closings had a sales price greater than a list price (58% in Santa Clara County and 56% in San Mateo County). It bears repeating that a well-priced listing has a tendency to develop more activity and have a much higher chance of generating multiple offers.

Which Half Are You? --  In December, it took just 13 days to sell half of the homes in Santa Clara County and 14 in San Mateo County! Keep in mind that these are countywide averages and both saw this decline from the month prior. A neighborhood may vary from these figures so it's best to contact your Realtor for a current reading.

In Santa Clara County, the fastest market area is Cupertino and Sunnyvale (zip codes 95014, 94086, 94087) with a median days on market of just 10 whereas the slowest is Los Gatos and Saratoga with a median days on market of 46 for those that closed escrow during the month. For San Mateo County, the fastest market area is Redwood City with 12 whereas the slowest is the expensive areas of San Mateo County comprising the communities of Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside, Hillsborough with 31.

Median Prices Continue to Increase -- Median prices of single family, condo and townhouse homes continue upwards. For single family residences, December saw Santa Clara County's median price, half above and half below or the middle transaction, increase to $697,000 and the median sales price for San Mateo County decreased slightly to $810,000 from the previous month. The upwards trend has been evident since the Spring of 2009.

Recent Overbidding Levels Remain High -- We talked about the frequency of overbidding (sale price greater than list price in 58% of the closes) but a more telling aspect is the magnitude or sales price to list price ratio (SP/LP). In Santa Clara County, the average SP/LP ratio is 102.7% or in the average transaction the seller gets 2.7% above the list price. Hottest area is Los Altos/Palo Alto with 105.9. In San Mateo County the numbers look similar. Overall, the average is 102.3 and the highest is Foster City/Redwood Shores with 104.2.

In Santa Clara County, for the Sunnyvale and Cupertino (zip codes 94086, 94087, 95014) market area, there were exactly none with 51 active single family residence listings. Ditto for Redwood Shores/Foster City area in San Mateo County with just five active listings.

Foster City, California

What's HOT and What's NOT -- In Santa Clara County, the hottest market area comprises Santa Teresa, North Valley, Milpitas, Blossom Valley with a Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) of 15. In San Mateo County, the hottest area is Foster City/Redwood Shores with a DUI of 10. What's not is Los Gatos/Saratoga in Santa Clara County with a DUI of 61 and the expensive areas of Menlo Park, Atherton, Portola Valley, Hillsborough and Woodside in San Mateo County with a DUI of 99.

Mortgage Rates Bottom? -- While mortgage rates remain at or near recent lows, buyers contemplating a purchase may be surprised to learn that rates moved up. Current U.S. Treasury 10-year notes are quoted at 1.90%, up from the record low of about 1.50% and bond prices look to be topping, it may be long-term prudent to lock in rates before the market moves the rates away from these levels.

Thanks for reading! I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- On Google+ at +Tom McEvoy. Let me know if you have any comments, questions, observations or any future topics you'd like me to address.