Monday, July 14, 2008

Median Price Comparison Tables for Silicon Valley

Here are some calculations I made comparing June 2008 with June 2007 median prices for both single family and condos/townhouses. These data are from the MLSListings statistics of actual transactions in both months.

Newspaper articles utilize data from DataQuick, a firm that compiles property transfer information for it's subscribers. The problem with DataQuick information is that they first combine all transfers of single family homes, condos and townhouses, mobile homes. In addition, DataQuick includes transfers that are NOT sales like transfers in a divorce and family transfers where parents transfer property to their children where there is no money changing hands. For example, in a divorce a court may order a spouse to transfer a home to the other spouse for $120,000 when the market value of the home was closer to $800,000. In a family transfer where there is no property tax reassessment, these values are recorded at a zero value. These "transactions" or transfers are part of DataQuick's database and are counted as $120,000 and $0, respectively! DataQuick provides subscribers like the San Jose Mercury News this information. MLSListings, on the other hand, captures only actual sales transactions that are based on a buyer willing to step up and put money toward the purchase of a home -- a far more reliable an indicator of market value.

It used to be that when real estate prices decreased, the higher-priced homes went down a higher percentage than lower-priced homes. Well, we have witnessed in the recent past that this has not been the case with this adjustment period. The phrase "location, location, location" used for real estate is an even more important attribute to consider as there is a wider gap between the affordable and expensive homes.

In the tables below, notice the wide variances between the types of properties as well as within the different counties. Another interesting comparison is the difference between the percentage changes from the lowest 10% (10th percentile) and the highest 10% (90th percentile), especially in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties but also evident in Santa Cruz and Monterey counties.


Single Family -

Median Prices

Santa Clara

San Mateo

Santa Cruz

Monterey

Lowest 10%

-33.9%

-22.5%

-29.5%

-50.0%

Median 50%

-13.3%

-10.7%

-21.8%

-49.2%

Highest 10%

-3.4%

-3.8%

-9.9%

-7.2%

Condo/Townhouse

Median Prices

Santa Clara

San Mateo

Santa Cruz

Monterey

Lowest 10%

-36.6%

-26.7%

-25.3%

-64.9%

Median 50%

-15.4%

-15.7%

-29.9%

-21.2%

Highest 10%

+13.1%

-9.8%

-4.4%

-29.9%


That positive number for Santa Clara condos/townhouses is not a misprint. There is actual price appreciation in the highest 10% (90th percentile) due mainly to the mix of where these transactions occurred. You probably guessed it -- in the more expensive areas.

Please let me know if you have any comments or questions. Thanks for reading!

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