Here are the highlights of July's transactions and market comments for Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. You may leave comments here, or contact me through my website.
> Market Overview -- It's been over a year since we called the bottom of the real estate market in Santa Clara County -- March-April 2009. Since then we've seen a general improvement in market conditions and this remains more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County decreased to 1,008 from 1,084 last month and was down 18.2% from the same month a year ago. San Mateo County also saw lower SFR closings at 387 from 446 last month and was down 1.5% from the same month a year ago. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) is trending upwards in both counties these past six months which is usual for this time of the year. What is not usual is that while the inventory in Santa Clara County is 18.5% higher than the same month a year ago, the inventory in San Mateo is 31.7% higher!
* 55.4% of sellers in Santa Clara County get at least list price for their homes! In San Mateo County, the corresponding percentage is 43.7%. This is an indicator that the overall market remains stronger in Santa Clara County.
* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) starts an upward move -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio and represents a calculation using both supply and demand. A lower figure for DUI, then, means improvement. For July, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 75 for SFR, 80 for condos/townhouses and 199 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 101 for SFR's and 103 for condos/townhouses and 325 for multi-unit properties. Notice that all readings were more positive for Santa Clara County.
> Seller Markets? -- For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, North Valley, East Valley, Evergreen Valley parts of San Jose, Cupertino, Sunnyvale. A seller's market has shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers with a tendency to have multiple offers and sale prices generally exceeding list prices with a potential of price appreciation.
> Buyer's Markets? -- We call them buyer's markets but everything is relative, right? For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Willow Glen part of San Jose, Saratoga. Los Gatos/Monte Sereno and Willow Glen are my current "Best Buy" areas in the county. What makes a "buyers" market is the relationship of supply to demand -- simply put as higher supply and lower demand. The characteristics of a buyer's market is a longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even price depreciation.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).
> Median prices continue upward trend -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's increased 7.6% to $650,000 from $590,000 in July 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $345,000 or 4.5% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $820,000, 6.9% higher than the same month a year ago, whereas condos/townhouses was $435,000, 4.5% lower. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks so that they can sell more newspapers! However, I advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients of the appropriate strategy they should employ to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.
> Distress Sales Watch -- Santa Clara County's real estate market has changed over the past year. Last year there were more bank-owned listings, this year more short sale listings. Both categories are what we call "lender-controlled". However, the surprising thing is that last year there were 56% of the closings were normal but this year normal transactions have jumped to 71% of the total.
> Why shorts take a long time to close! -- Bank-owned transactions are similar to normal transactions as to length of escrows but short sales can try a buyer's patience. Matter of fact, they try all parties patience. Banks tell us they are working to reduce the process time for short sales but with a number of decision makers involved in a short sale, its anybody's guess. Here's some details as to why they take much longer AND there's no guarantee that they close! The ultimate decision rests with the Investor or owner of the loan. Most people think that if they get a loan through Wells Fargo or Bank of America, the bank owns the loan. Not true, as most of the loans have been sold to other investors (e.g., Fannie, Freddie, FHA, private investor groups, etc.). With this situation, the bank services the loan (collecting payments, producing statements, etc.) but does not own the loan, earning a fee for doing so. Each loan they sold, freed up funds to loan to someone else! Each Investor (and there could be more than one), tries to minimize their losses, each has their unique contractor guidelines (FHA requires TWO appraisals) and there are other interested parties (e.g., mortgage insurance company, Second lien mortgage holder. In fact, where there’s more than one loan, they could easily be held by different banks complicating the process even more. All the parties must be in alignment before a home can be sold. Banks or Investors don't give away properties and when they decide to sell, they are considered sophisticated sellers.
> Back to the Future with Mortgage Rates! -- Remember the movie, Back to the Future, which took place in the 1950's? Well, mortgage rates have fallen to levels not seen since that time. Recent rates are hovering in the low to mid-4% range. Many of today's buyers couldn't believe that mortgage rates hit 18.5% in 1981! With the loan payment being the carrying cost of a purchase and with price adjustments that have already taken place, the affordability of homes is higher.
Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you make a better, more-informed decision.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Rubio's Fresh Mexican Grill - Sunnyvale - Pre-Opening Celebration
“Doing good never tasted so good!”
Where: Rubio’s Fresh Mexican Grill; 108 E. El Camino Real at Sunnyvale-Saratoga Road, Sunnyvale, CA 94087
When: Wednesday, August 18th, 5:00-8:00pm
How Much: $10 donation requested per person, $5 per child 12 and younger
How to Participate: By Monday, August 16th, please RSVP by email with number to ccasebeer@rubios.com
Proceeds Benefit: 100% of proceeds will go to the Sunnyvale Community Services (SCS)
Why this from me: I volunteer my time as a member of the Board of Directors of SCS to help the organization continue its mission of working to prevent homelessness and hunger in Sunnyvale.
“Doing good never tasted so good!”
Where: Rubio’s Fresh Mexican Grill; 108 E. El Camino Real at Sunnyvale-Saratoga Road, Sunnyvale, CA 94087
When: Wednesday, August 18th, 5:00-8:00pm
How Much: $10 donation requested per person, $5 per child 12 and younger
How to Participate: By Monday, August 16th, please RSVP by email with number to ccasebeer@rubios.com
Proceeds Benefit: 100% of proceeds will go to the Sunnyvale Community Services (SCS)
Why this from me: I volunteer my time as a member of the Board of Directors of SCS to help the organization continue its mission of working to prevent homelessness and hunger in Sunnyvale.
“Doing good never tasted so good!”
Thursday, July 15, 2010
July Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights
Here are the highlights of June's transactions and market comments for Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. You may leave comments here, or contact me through my website.
> Market Overview -- It's been over a year since we called the bottom of the real estate market in Santa Clara County -- March-April 2009. Since then we've seen a steady improvement in market conditions and this remains more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County decreased to 1,084 from 1,230 last month and was down 8.9% from the same month a year ago. San Mateo County actually saw higher SFR closings at 446 from 418 last month and was up 6.2% from the same month a year ago. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) is trending upwards in both counties these past six months which is usual for this time of the year. What is not usual is that while the inventory in Santa Clara County is 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago, the inventory in San Mateo is 25.8% higher!
* 53% of sellers in Santa Clara County get at least list price for their homes! In San Mateo County, the corresponding percentage is 43.7%. This is another indicator that the overall market remains stronger in Santa Clara County.
* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues a positive trend -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio and represents a calculation using both supply and demand. A lower figure for DUI, then, means improvement. For June, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 68 for SFR, 78 for condos/townhouses and 216 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 97 for SFR's and 92 for condos/townhouses and 332 for multi-unit properties. All readings were more positive for Santa Clara County.
> HOT Markets? -- For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, East Valley, Evergreen Valley, Santa Teresa areas of San Jose. A seller's market has shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers with a tendency to have multiple offers and sale prices generally exceeding list prices and the potential of price appreciation.
> Cool Markets? -- We call them buyer's markets but everything is relative, right? For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Saratoga, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, and the Almaden Valley and Willow Glen portions of San Jose. Saratoga and Willow Glen with Los Gatos/Monte Sereno are my current "Best Buy" areas in the county. What makes a "buyers" market is the relationship of supply to demand -- higher supply and lower demand. The characteristics of a buyers market is a longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even price depreciation.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).
> Median prices continue upward trend -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's increased to $637,500 versus $550,250 or 15.9% increase from June 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $360,000 or 3% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $792,000, 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago, whereas condos/townhouses was $451,000, 3% lower. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks to sell newspapers! However, I advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients of the appropriate strategy to employ to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.
> Distress Sales Watch -- Santa Clara County's real estate market has changed over the past year. Last year there were more bank-owned listings, this year more short sale listings. Both categories are what we call "lender-controlled". However, the surprising thing is that last year there were 56% of the closings were normal but this year normal has jumped to 69% of the total.
> Shorts are Long! -- Bank-owned transactions are similar to normal transactions as to length of escrows but short sales can try a buyer's patience. Matter of fact, they try all parties patience. Banks tell us they are working to reduce the process time for short sales but with a number of decision makers involved in a short sale, its anybody's guess. Here's some details as to why they take much longer AND there's no guarantee that they close! The ultimate decision rests with the Investor or owner of the loan. Most people think that if they get a loan through Wells Fargo or Bank of America, the bank owns the loan. Not true, as most of the loans have been sold to other investors (e.g., Fannie, Freddie, FHA, private investor groups, etc.). With this situation, the bank services the loan (collecting payments, producing statements, etc.) but does not own the loan, earning a fee for doing so. Each loan they sold, freed up funds to loan to someone else! Each Investor (and there could be more than one), tries to minimize their losses, each has their unique contractor guidelines (FHA requires TWO appraisals) and there are other interested parties (e.g., mortgage insurance company, Second lien mortgage holder. In fact, where there’s more than one loan, they could easily be held by different banks complicating the process even more. All the parties must be in alignment before a home can be sold. Banks or Investors who hold mortgages are sophisticated sellers.
Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you make a better, more-informed decision.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.
> Market Overview -- It's been over a year since we called the bottom of the real estate market in Santa Clara County -- March-April 2009. Since then we've seen a steady improvement in market conditions and this remains more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County decreased to 1,084 from 1,230 last month and was down 8.9% from the same month a year ago. San Mateo County actually saw higher SFR closings at 446 from 418 last month and was up 6.2% from the same month a year ago. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) is trending upwards in both counties these past six months which is usual for this time of the year. What is not usual is that while the inventory in Santa Clara County is 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago, the inventory in San Mateo is 25.8% higher!
* 53% of sellers in Santa Clara County get at least list price for their homes! In San Mateo County, the corresponding percentage is 43.7%. This is another indicator that the overall market remains stronger in Santa Clara County.
* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues a positive trend -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio and represents a calculation using both supply and demand. A lower figure for DUI, then, means improvement. For June, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 68 for SFR, 78 for condos/townhouses and 216 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 97 for SFR's and 92 for condos/townhouses and 332 for multi-unit properties. All readings were more positive for Santa Clara County.
> HOT Markets? -- For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, East Valley, Evergreen Valley, Santa Teresa areas of San Jose. A seller's market has shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers with a tendency to have multiple offers and sale prices generally exceeding list prices and the potential of price appreciation.
> Cool Markets? -- We call them buyer's markets but everything is relative, right? For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Saratoga, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, and the Almaden Valley and Willow Glen portions of San Jose. Saratoga and Willow Glen with Los Gatos/Monte Sereno are my current "Best Buy" areas in the county. What makes a "buyers" market is the relationship of supply to demand -- higher supply and lower demand. The characteristics of a buyers market is a longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even price depreciation.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).
> Median prices continue upward trend -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's increased to $637,500 versus $550,250 or 15.9% increase from June 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $360,000 or 3% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $792,000, 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago, whereas condos/townhouses was $451,000, 3% lower. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks to sell newspapers! However, I advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients of the appropriate strategy to employ to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.
> Distress Sales Watch -- Santa Clara County's real estate market has changed over the past year. Last year there were more bank-owned listings, this year more short sale listings. Both categories are what we call "lender-controlled". However, the surprising thing is that last year there were 56% of the closings were normal but this year normal has jumped to 69% of the total.
> Shorts are Long! -- Bank-owned transactions are similar to normal transactions as to length of escrows but short sales can try a buyer's patience. Matter of fact, they try all parties patience. Banks tell us they are working to reduce the process time for short sales but with a number of decision makers involved in a short sale, its anybody's guess. Here's some details as to why they take much longer AND there's no guarantee that they close! The ultimate decision rests with the Investor or owner of the loan. Most people think that if they get a loan through Wells Fargo or Bank of America, the bank owns the loan. Not true, as most of the loans have been sold to other investors (e.g., Fannie, Freddie, FHA, private investor groups, etc.). With this situation, the bank services the loan (collecting payments, producing statements, etc.) but does not own the loan, earning a fee for doing so. Each loan they sold, freed up funds to loan to someone else! Each Investor (and there could be more than one), tries to minimize their losses, each has their unique contractor guidelines (FHA requires TWO appraisals) and there are other interested parties (e.g., mortgage insurance company, Second lien mortgage holder. In fact, where there’s more than one loan, they could easily be held by different banks complicating the process even more. All the parties must be in alignment before a home can be sold. Banks or Investors who hold mortgages are sophisticated sellers.
Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you make a better, more-informed decision.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
June Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights
Here are the highlights of May's transactions and market comments for Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. Your comments and questions are welcome. If you have an update as to what you are witnessing in your neighborhood, please don't hesitate to share with us. You may leave comments here, or contact me through my website.
> Market Overview -- It's been over a year since we called the bottom of the real estate market in Santa Clara County -- March-April 2009. Since then we've seen a steady improvement in market conditions and this remains more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County increased to 1,230 from 975 last month and was up 23.7% from the same month a year ago. San Mateo County also saw higher SFR closings at 418 from 344 last month and was up 28.6% from the same month a year ago. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) is trending upwards in both counties these past few months which is usual. What is not usual is that while the inventory in Santa Clara County is 12.7% lower than the same month a year ago, the inventory in San Mateo is 10.1% higher.
* Headline you don't see in the San Jose Mercury News -- "HALF OF HOME SELLERS GET MORE THAN LIST PRICE FOR THEIR HOMES!" The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% and stands at 100.9% in Santa Clara County and 100.0% for San Mateo County. Big news continues in the percent of closings where sale price exceeded list price -- Santa Clara County was 48.2% and San Mateo County increased to 40.9%. This indicates that the overall market remains stronger in Santa Clara County.
* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to show improvement -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio and represents a calculation using both supply and demand. A lower figure for DUI, then, means improvement. For May, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 61 for SFR, 73 for condos/townhouses and 167 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 89 for SFR's and 100 for condos/townhouses.
> HOT Markets? -- For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, East Valley, Santa Teresa, North Valley and Evergreen Valley areas of San Jose. For San Mateo County, the hottest markets are those bay-side cities of Belmont, San Carlos, Redwood City and San Mateo. A seller's market has shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers with a tendency to have multiple offers and sale prices generally exceeding list prices and the potential of price appreciation.
> Cool Markets? -- We call them buyer's markets but everything is relative, right? For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos, Saratoga and the Willow Glen portion of San Jose. Saratoga and Willow Glen with Los Gatos/Monte Sereno are my current "Best Buy" areas in the county. In San Mateo County, besides the more expensive areas, there are buyer's markets in the coastal communities like Pacifica and Half Moon Bay. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even depreciation.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).
> Median prices jump in Santa Clara County -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's jumped to $630,000 versus $490,000 or 29% increase from May 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $383,500 or 24% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $750,000, 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks to sell newspapers! However, I advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients of the appropriate strategy to employ to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.
> Friday Before Memorial Day -- What's so significant about that date? Well, looking back over the last 15 years or so, Santa Clara County's real estate market usually peaks for the year in terms of activity levels and also generally in prices, as well. So far, we have a May peak this year as activity levels have eroded into June thus far so we'll see.
> What a change from a year ago in the market! -- Last year at this time saw 49% of the closings in Santa Clara County being distress sales (bank-owned and short sales or lender-controlled transactions). This year, just 28% are that type! Normal transactions accounted for 51% of the total last year and 72% this year.
> Why do newspapers always report lower prices for the area? They use DataQuick services which scans ALL transactions even though there's no money changing hands like in the case of family to family transfers, divorce settlements, etc. My calculations are based solely on arm's-length transactions through our Multiple Listing Service or MLS.
Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you make a better, more-informed decision.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.
> Market Overview -- It's been over a year since we called the bottom of the real estate market in Santa Clara County -- March-April 2009. Since then we've seen a steady improvement in market conditions and this remains more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County increased to 1,230 from 975 last month and was up 23.7% from the same month a year ago. San Mateo County also saw higher SFR closings at 418 from 344 last month and was up 28.6% from the same month a year ago. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) is trending upwards in both counties these past few months which is usual. What is not usual is that while the inventory in Santa Clara County is 12.7% lower than the same month a year ago, the inventory in San Mateo is 10.1% higher.
* Headline you don't see in the San Jose Mercury News -- "HALF OF HOME SELLERS GET MORE THAN LIST PRICE FOR THEIR HOMES!" The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% and stands at 100.9% in Santa Clara County and 100.0% for San Mateo County. Big news continues in the percent of closings where sale price exceeded list price -- Santa Clara County was 48.2% and San Mateo County increased to 40.9%. This indicates that the overall market remains stronger in Santa Clara County.
* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to show improvement -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio and represents a calculation using both supply and demand. A lower figure for DUI, then, means improvement. For May, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 61 for SFR, 73 for condos/townhouses and 167 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 89 for SFR's and 100 for condos/townhouses.
> HOT Markets? -- For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, East Valley, Santa Teresa, North Valley and Evergreen Valley areas of San Jose. For San Mateo County, the hottest markets are those bay-side cities of Belmont, San Carlos, Redwood City and San Mateo. A seller's market has shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers with a tendency to have multiple offers and sale prices generally exceeding list prices and the potential of price appreciation.
> Cool Markets? -- We call them buyer's markets but everything is relative, right? For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos, Saratoga and the Willow Glen portion of San Jose. Saratoga and Willow Glen with Los Gatos/Monte Sereno are my current "Best Buy" areas in the county. In San Mateo County, besides the more expensive areas, there are buyer's markets in the coastal communities like Pacifica and Half Moon Bay. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even depreciation.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).
> Median prices jump in Santa Clara County -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's jumped to $630,000 versus $490,000 or 29% increase from May 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $383,500 or 24% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $750,000, 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks to sell newspapers! However, I advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients of the appropriate strategy to employ to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.
> Friday Before Memorial Day -- What's so significant about that date? Well, looking back over the last 15 years or so, Santa Clara County's real estate market usually peaks for the year in terms of activity levels and also generally in prices, as well. So far, we have a May peak this year as activity levels have eroded into June thus far so we'll see.
> What a change from a year ago in the market! -- Last year at this time saw 49% of the closings in Santa Clara County being distress sales (bank-owned and short sales or lender-controlled transactions). This year, just 28% are that type! Normal transactions accounted for 51% of the total last year and 72% this year.
> Why do newspapers always report lower prices for the area? They use DataQuick services which scans ALL transactions even though there's no money changing hands like in the case of family to family transfers, divorce settlements, etc. My calculations are based solely on arm's-length transactions through our Multiple Listing Service or MLS.
Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you make a better, more-informed decision.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
May Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights
Here are the highlights of April's transactions and market comments for Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. Your comments and questions are welcome. If you have an update as to what you are witnessing in your neighborhood, please don't hesitate to share with us. You may leave comments here, or contact me through my website.
> Market Overview -- It's been over a year since we called the bottom of the real estate market in Santa Clara County -- March-April 2009. Since then we've seen pretty much a steady improvement in market conditions and this is more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County increased to 975 from 917 last month and was up 7% from the same month a year ago. San Mateo County also saw higher SFR closings at 344 compared to 294 in the same month a year ago. Higher activity levels and more buyers willing to make the decision to purchase is what we're finding. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) has trended upwards these past few months after more than a year of continual decline. This is taking place in both counties. However, the levels still remain substantially below the year ago levels. Santa Clara County inventory of available SFR's increased 7% from last month and San Mateo County's inventory increased 16%.
* Headline you don't see in the San Jose Mercury News -- "HALF OF HOME SELLERS GET MORE THAN LIST PRICE FOR THEIR HOMES!" The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% and stands at 101.0% in Santa Clara County and 99.2% for San Mateo County. Big news continues in the percent of closings where sale price exceeded list price -- Santa Clara County was 48.6% and San Mateo County was 37.8%. This indicates the overall market is stronger in Santa Clara County.
* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to show improvement -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio, where a higher number means improvement. Whereas a lower figure for DUI means improvement. For April, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 43 for SFR, 48 for condos/townhouses and 72 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 44 for SFR's, 57 for condos/townhouses and 83 for multi-unit properties.
> HOT Markets? -- You bet and there are more of them, too! For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are Santa Teresa, Cupertino, North Valley, East Valley, South San Jose, Santa Clara, Milpitas, and Sunnyvale. For San Mateo County, the hottest markets are those bay-side cities of Belmont, San Carlos, Redwood City and San Mateo. The characteristics of a seller's market are shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers which translates into a higher probability of multiple offers, sale prices generally exceeding list prices and a tendency towards price appreciation.
> Cool Markets? -- Yes, but there are fewer of them. For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Willow Glen, Saratoga. Los Gatos/Monte Sereno is my current "Best Buy" area in the county. In San Mateo County, besides the more expensive areas, there are buyer's markets in the coastal communities. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even depreciation.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).
> Median prices jump in Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's jumped to $630,000 versus $470,000 or 34% increase from April 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $342,500 or 28% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $754,000, 24% higher than the same month a year ago. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks to sell newspapers! However, I advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients of the appropriate strategy to employ to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.
> Crazy Silicon Valley! -- If you told someone in most areas of the country that one-half of all closings are sold above list price, AND that the average sold price to list price ratio is 101% AND that 50% of closings sold within 20 days, they'd think you were crazy!
> Two-thirds of closings are regular transactions -- last year the figure was just 45%. Those REO-only agents have seen an average overall drop of about 65% in their business activity in a year.
> Bottom-Line Santa Clara County Market Analysis -- When you have about 1,000 closings of SFR homes out of an available inventory of about 2,500 or 40%, that's a HOT market!
Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you make a better, more-informed decision.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.
> Market Overview -- It's been over a year since we called the bottom of the real estate market in Santa Clara County -- March-April 2009. Since then we've seen pretty much a steady improvement in market conditions and this is more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County increased to 975 from 917 last month and was up 7% from the same month a year ago. San Mateo County also saw higher SFR closings at 344 compared to 294 in the same month a year ago. Higher activity levels and more buyers willing to make the decision to purchase is what we're finding. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) has trended upwards these past few months after more than a year of continual decline. This is taking place in both counties. However, the levels still remain substantially below the year ago levels. Santa Clara County inventory of available SFR's increased 7% from last month and San Mateo County's inventory increased 16%.
* Headline you don't see in the San Jose Mercury News -- "HALF OF HOME SELLERS GET MORE THAN LIST PRICE FOR THEIR HOMES!" The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% and stands at 101.0% in Santa Clara County and 99.2% for San Mateo County. Big news continues in the percent of closings where sale price exceeded list price -- Santa Clara County was 48.6% and San Mateo County was 37.8%. This indicates the overall market is stronger in Santa Clara County.
* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to show improvement -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio, where a higher number means improvement. Whereas a lower figure for DUI means improvement. For April, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 43 for SFR, 48 for condos/townhouses and 72 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 44 for SFR's, 57 for condos/townhouses and 83 for multi-unit properties.
> HOT Markets? -- You bet and there are more of them, too! For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are Santa Teresa, Cupertino, North Valley, East Valley, South San Jose, Santa Clara, Milpitas, and Sunnyvale. For San Mateo County, the hottest markets are those bay-side cities of Belmont, San Carlos, Redwood City and San Mateo. The characteristics of a seller's market are shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers which translates into a higher probability of multiple offers, sale prices generally exceeding list prices and a tendency towards price appreciation.
> Cool Markets? -- Yes, but there are fewer of them. For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Willow Glen, Saratoga. Los Gatos/Monte Sereno is my current "Best Buy" area in the county. In San Mateo County, besides the more expensive areas, there are buyer's markets in the coastal communities. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even depreciation.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).
> Median prices jump in Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's jumped to $630,000 versus $470,000 or 34% increase from April 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $342,500 or 28% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $754,000, 24% higher than the same month a year ago. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks to sell newspapers! However, I advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients of the appropriate strategy to employ to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.
> Crazy Silicon Valley! -- If you told someone in most areas of the country that one-half of all closings are sold above list price, AND that the average sold price to list price ratio is 101% AND that 50% of closings sold within 20 days, they'd think you were crazy!
> Two-thirds of closings are regular transactions -- last year the figure was just 45%. Those REO-only agents have seen an average overall drop of about 65% in their business activity in a year.
> Bottom-Line Santa Clara County Market Analysis -- When you have about 1,000 closings of SFR homes out of an available inventory of about 2,500 or 40%, that's a HOT market!
Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you make a better, more-informed decision.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
April Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights
Here are the highlights of March's transactions and market comments for Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. Your comments and questions are welcome. If you have an update as to what you are witnessing in your neighborhood, please don't hesitate to share with us. You may leave comments here, or contact me through my website.
> Market Overview -- It's been a year since we saw the bottom of the real estate market in Santa Clara County. Since then we've seen pretty much a steady improvement in market conditions and this is more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County were 917 versus 633 last month and 721 in March 2009. San Mateo County also saw higher SFR closings at 322 compared to 250 in the same month a year ago. Higher activity levels and more buyers willing to make the decision to purchase is what we're finding. Buyers seeking low prices AND a chance to garner a tax credit or two are a little late to the scene. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) has turned upwards after more than a year of continual decline. This is taking place in both counties. However, the levels are still substantially below the year ago levels. Santa Clara County inventory of available SFR's increased 8% from last month and San Mateo County's inventory increased 12%.
* Headline you don't see in the San Jose Mercury News -- "HALF OF HOME SELLERS GET MORE THAN LIST PRICE FOR THEIR HOMES!" The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% and stands at 100.9% in Santa Clara County and increased a bit to 99.6% for San Mateo County. Big news continues in the percent of closings where sale price exceeded list price -- Santa Clara County was 49.7% and San Mateo County was 39.9%. This indicates the overall market is stronger in Santa Clara County.
* The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to show improvement -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio, where a higher number means improvement. A lower figure for DUI means improvement. For March, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 44 for SFR, 41 for condos/townhouses and 68 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 45 for SFR's, 45 for condos/townhouses and 105 for multi-unit properties.
> HOT Markets? -- You bet and there are more of them, too! For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, East Valley, Evergreen, North Valley, and Milpitas with Cupertino not far behind. For San Mateo County, the hottest markets are those bay-side cities of Belmont, San Carlos, Redwood City and San Mateo, followed by more expensive areas of Menlo Park, Woodside, and Portola Valley. The characteristics of a seller's market are shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers which translates into a higher probability of multiple offers, sale prices generally exceeding list prices and a tendency towards price appreciation.
> Cool Markets? -- Yes, but there is fewer of them. For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos Mountains and Los Gatos/Monte Sereno. Los Gatos is my current "Best Buy" area in the county. In San Mateo County, besides the more expensive areas, there are buyer's markets in the coastal communities. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even depreciation.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion thing but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI). Additionally, this is not based on price levels or my opinion but a supply-demand relationship.
> Median prices jump in Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's jumped to $600,000 versus $450,000 or 33% increase from March 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $375,000 or 57% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's reached $800,000, 38% higher than the same month a year ago. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks to sell newspapers! I advice my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients of the appropriate strategy to employ to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.
Need help with understanding the market in your area? Contact me at Tom.McEvoy@remax.net for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you make a better decision.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.
> Market Overview -- It's been a year since we saw the bottom of the real estate market in Santa Clara County. Since then we've seen pretty much a steady improvement in market conditions and this is more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County were 917 versus 633 last month and 721 in March 2009. San Mateo County also saw higher SFR closings at 322 compared to 250 in the same month a year ago. Higher activity levels and more buyers willing to make the decision to purchase is what we're finding. Buyers seeking low prices AND a chance to garner a tax credit or two are a little late to the scene. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) has turned upwards after more than a year of continual decline. This is taking place in both counties. However, the levels are still substantially below the year ago levels. Santa Clara County inventory of available SFR's increased 8% from last month and San Mateo County's inventory increased 12%.
* Headline you don't see in the San Jose Mercury News -- "HALF OF HOME SELLERS GET MORE THAN LIST PRICE FOR THEIR HOMES!" The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% and stands at 100.9% in Santa Clara County and increased a bit to 99.6% for San Mateo County. Big news continues in the percent of closings where sale price exceeded list price -- Santa Clara County was 49.7% and San Mateo County was 39.9%. This indicates the overall market is stronger in Santa Clara County.
* The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to show improvement -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio, where a higher number means improvement. A lower figure for DUI means improvement. For March, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 44 for SFR, 41 for condos/townhouses and 68 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 45 for SFR's, 45 for condos/townhouses and 105 for multi-unit properties.
> HOT Markets? -- You bet and there are more of them, too! For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, East Valley, Evergreen, North Valley, and Milpitas with Cupertino not far behind. For San Mateo County, the hottest markets are those bay-side cities of Belmont, San Carlos, Redwood City and San Mateo, followed by more expensive areas of Menlo Park, Woodside, and Portola Valley. The characteristics of a seller's market are shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers which translates into a higher probability of multiple offers, sale prices generally exceeding list prices and a tendency towards price appreciation.
> Cool Markets? -- Yes, but there is fewer of them. For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos Mountains and Los Gatos/Monte Sereno. Los Gatos is my current "Best Buy" area in the county. In San Mateo County, besides the more expensive areas, there are buyer's markets in the coastal communities. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even depreciation.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion thing but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI). Additionally, this is not based on price levels or my opinion but a supply-demand relationship.
> Median prices jump in Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's jumped to $600,000 versus $450,000 or 33% increase from March 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $375,000 or 57% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's reached $800,000, 38% higher than the same month a year ago. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks to sell newspapers! I advice my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients of the appropriate strategy to employ to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.
Need help with understanding the market in your area? Contact me at Tom.McEvoy@remax.net for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you make a better decision.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
March Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights
Here are the highlights of February's transactions and market comments for Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. Your comments and questions are welcome. If you have an update as to what you are witnessing in your neighborhood, please don't hesitate to share with us. You may leave comments here, or contact me through my website.
> Market Overview -- March 2009 saw the trend change to improve in Santa Clara County. It's been almost a year of improved market conditions and is more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings in Santa Clara County were 633 versus 593 in January and above February 2009 figure of 579. San Mateo County also saw higher closings. Higher figures are expected as the seasonal aspects point to higher levels of activity in the late winter/early spring. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) has turned upwards after more than a year of continual decline. This is taking place in both counties. Part of this is seasonal as sellers are rushing to get their home listed in the early part of the year after trying to sell unsuccessfully last year (did someone say "overpriced"?). Santa Clara County inventory of available single family residences increased 16% from last month and San Mateo County's inventory increased 20%.
* The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% and remains at 101.3% in Santa Clara County and increased a bit to 99.5% for San Mateo County. Big news is the percent of closings where sale price exceeds list price -- Santa Clara County was 49.8% and San Mateo County was 36.6%. This indicates the overall market is stronger in Santa Clara County.
* The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to show improvement -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. For February, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 39 for single family homes, 37 for condos/townhouses and 80 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 42 for single family homes, 45 for condos/townhouses and 121 for multi-unit properties.
> Super-heated Seller's Markets? -- We will always have some market areas performing better than others. For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, Blossom Valley, North Valley, East Valley, Evergreen (lower priced homes only!) and Cambrian. For San Mateo County, Foster City remains the hottest market followed by the Bay-side communities of Belmont, San Carlos, Redwood City and San Mateo, followed by the expensive areas of Woodside, Portola Valley, Hillsborough and Atherton. The characteristics of a seller's market are shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher probability of multiple offers with many sale prices exceeding list prices and a tendency towards price appreciation.
> Buyer's Markets? -- Yes, there's a couple of them, too. For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos Mountains, Saratoga, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno and Almaden Valley. Saratoga exhibits the highest Days of Unsold Inventory in the county at 144 due mostly to low demand and is my current "Best Buy" area in the county, followed by Los Gatos/Monte Sereno. In San Mateo County, besides the more expensive areas, there are buyer's markets in the coastal communities. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price depreciation.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion thing but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI). Additionally, this is not based on price levels or my opinion but a supply-demand relationship.
> Median prices -- Santa Clara County median price for single family homes now stands at $550,000 versus $450,000 or 22.2% increase from February 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $352,000 or 10.0% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median reached $600,000, 4.4% higher than the same month a year ago. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks! I advice my clients to NOT use an entire county's median price level to decide on whether to buy or sell but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients to use an appropriate strategy to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.
Need help with understanding the market in your area? Contact me at Tom.McEvoy@remax.net for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.
> Market Overview -- March 2009 saw the trend change to improve in Santa Clara County. It's been almost a year of improved market conditions and is more apparent in Santa Clara County than San Mateo County. Closings in Santa Clara County were 633 versus 593 in January and above February 2009 figure of 579. San Mateo County also saw higher closings. Higher figures are expected as the seasonal aspects point to higher levels of activity in the late winter/early spring. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) has turned upwards after more than a year of continual decline. This is taking place in both counties. Part of this is seasonal as sellers are rushing to get their home listed in the early part of the year after trying to sell unsuccessfully last year (did someone say "overpriced"?). Santa Clara County inventory of available single family residences increased 16% from last month and San Mateo County's inventory increased 20%.
* The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% and remains at 101.3% in Santa Clara County and increased a bit to 99.5% for San Mateo County. Big news is the percent of closings where sale price exceeds list price -- Santa Clara County was 49.8% and San Mateo County was 36.6%. This indicates the overall market is stronger in Santa Clara County.
* The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to show improvement -- as readers will remember that a lowering of this number translates into a faster market. For February, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 39 for single family homes, 37 for condos/townhouses and 80 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 42 for single family homes, 45 for condos/townhouses and 121 for multi-unit properties.
> Super-heated Seller's Markets? -- We will always have some market areas performing better than others. For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, Blossom Valley, North Valley, East Valley, Evergreen (lower priced homes only!) and Cambrian. For San Mateo County, Foster City remains the hottest market followed by the Bay-side communities of Belmont, San Carlos, Redwood City and San Mateo, followed by the expensive areas of Woodside, Portola Valley, Hillsborough and Atherton. The characteristics of a seller's market are shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher probability of multiple offers with many sale prices exceeding list prices and a tendency towards price appreciation.
> Buyer's Markets? -- Yes, there's a couple of them, too. For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos Mountains, Saratoga, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno and Almaden Valley. Saratoga exhibits the highest Days of Unsold Inventory in the county at 144 due mostly to low demand and is my current "Best Buy" area in the county, followed by Los Gatos/Monte Sereno. In San Mateo County, besides the more expensive areas, there are buyer's markets in the coastal communities. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price depreciation.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion thing but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI). Additionally, this is not based on price levels or my opinion but a supply-demand relationship.
> Median prices -- Santa Clara County median price for single family homes now stands at $550,000 versus $450,000 or 22.2% increase from February 2009. The median price for condos/townhouses was $352,000 or 10.0% higher than the same month a year ago. San Mateo County's median reached $600,000, 4.4% higher than the same month a year ago. Notice that with prices I don't use month to month changes but year over year. This eliminates seasonal fluctuations and is something that newspapers and most online pricing sources haven't figured out yet! Or, perhaps they use this intentionally to scare folks! I advice my clients to NOT use an entire county's median price level to decide on whether to buy or sell but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood under consideration and advise my clients to use an appropriate strategy to maximize their dollars if they are selling and maximize their house if they are buying.
Need help with understanding the market in your area? Contact me at Tom.McEvoy@remax.net for a no-obligation consultation and research to help you.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.
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