March Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights

Here are the highlights of February transactions and market comments for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website.

> Market Overview -- The decrease in the amount of closed sales in both counties continues, an indicator of slowing markets. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County decreased slightly from last month to 632 at match the level of the same month a year ago. For San Mateo County, SFR closings were 221, down from 234 last month and down from 230 from the same month a year ago. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:

* The supply of single family residences available for sale (inventory) in Santa Clara County, increased to 2,417 from 2,335 and is 10.1% higher than the same month a year ago. Similarly, we saw San Mateo County's inventory jump to 1,158 from 1,088 last month and was 18.2% higher than the same month a year ago. Keep in mind that many sellers remove their homes from the marketplace at the end of the year so this is not unexpected to see an increase into the first part of a year. The rate of increase is not too steep so that portends a more positive market environment. Generally, inventory is about on track with the ten-year average -- not too high or not too low. Against this backdrop, the market continues more positive in Santa Clara County than in San Mateo County.

* 46.5% of sellers in Santa Clara County get at least list price for their homes! In San Mateo County, the corresponding percentage is 43.9%. This is another indicator that the overall market remains stronger in Santa Clara County. Also, these indicators have perked up a bit in each county.

* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI), continues to move lower making for a more positive market in both counties. We watch this important indicator closely to provide insight into how the market is handling demand and supply. DUI is a calculation using both supply and demand so is not an opinion. A higher figure for DUI, then, means the market is becoming weaker. For February, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 56 for SFR's, down from 62, 58 for condos/townhouses, down from 64 and 99 for multi-unit properties, up slightly from 95. San Mateo County had a DUI for SFR's of 71 down from 85 last month, 87 for condos/townhouses down from 103. Once again, all readings continue to point to a more positive market for Santa Clara County.

> Seller Markets? -- For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are Santa Teresa, South San Jose, and East Valley portions of San Jose followed by the market area comprising Mountain View, Los Altos and Palo Alto. For San Mateo County, there were again NO hot markets! A seller's market has characteristics of a shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers along with a tendency for multiple offers and sale prices generally exceeding list prices. A seller's market area has a potential of price appreciation.

> Buyer's Markets? -- For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in the Willow Glen area of San Jose and Campbell. Willow Glen is currently my "Best Buy" area in the county. For San Mateo County, we see buyer's markets in Foster City/Redwood Shores and especially the San Mateo Coast cities. The "Bay Cities" of San Mateo County like San Mateo, Redwood City, etc. are a bit cool. What makes a buyer's market is the relationship of supply to demand -- simply put as higher supply relative to demand, the area will have the characteristics of a longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even price depreciation. We see buyer's market areas have price reductions before a buyer makes an offer.

Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).

> Median prices have moved lower in Santa Clara County but increased in San Mateo County -- The median price for SFR's in Santa Clara County has decreased for the last several months. It now stands at $530,000, versus $532,000, or a 0.4% decrease from last month and a decrease of 4.0% from the same month a year ago. The median price for condos/townhouses was unavailable due to incomplete data. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $640,000, up 8.5% from $590,000 last month and down 2.3% from the same month a year ago. The median price for San Mateo County condo/townhouses was $372,500, up 1.4% from $367,500 last month and down 1.7% from the same month a year ago. I continue to advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market as market areas within each county differ. For instance, I see divergencies in the different market areas in each county so these are general statements. Ask me to provide you with how your area compares.

> $5+ million sales return! -- More rare is the fact that there are now some high end transactions that have taken place in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. Matter of fact, there were 7 sales in each county last month. I use this as a leading indicator of market conditions which have swung to positive in other price ranges as well.

Need help with understanding the market in your area? For instance, how can there be a difference between the relatively hot market conditions in Los Altos and Palo Alto but very cool market conditions in Campbell? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to arm you with market intelligence to help you make a better, more-informed decision.


Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.

November Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights

Here are the highlights of October transactions and market comments for Santa Clara County real estate and San Mateo County real estate. Your comments and questions are always welcome. If you see something in your neighborhood that you are curious about or have a question, please don't hesitate to share with us. If you have questions or a comment, please leave them here, or feel free to contact me through my website.

> Market Overview -- The last several months has seen a continual decrease in the amount of sales in both counties, an indicator of slowing markets. Closings of single family residences (SFR) in Santa Clara County decreased and were at 780, 24.0%lower than the same month a year ago. Even though the amount of sales in San Mateo County rose a bit from September, the same general decline exists. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:

* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory), which was increasing later in the year (far longer than in most years), has now reversed course and is following historical trends in both counties. As usual for this time of year, inventory tends to drift lower. We'll see, I'm sure, a major drop-off at the end of the year as many listing agreements seem to expire on 12/31 of each year. Still, the market overall remains more positive in Santa Clara County.

* 44% of sellers in Santa Clara County get at least list price for their homes! In San Mateo County, the corresponding percentage is a bit over 39%. This is another indicator that the overall market remains stronger in Santa Clara County. Also, these indicators have drifted lower and underscore a slowing market in both counties -- usual for this time of year.

* Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) has turned the corner and is now heading down. this could portend a market that is gaining strength and could point, if it continues, to a more positive market condition in 2011. We shall keep an eye on this important indicator. As we have discussed, DUI is conceptually the inverse of inventory turns ratio and represents a calculation using both supply and demand. A higher figure for DUI, then, means the market is becoming weaker. For October, Santa Clara County had a DUI of 70 for SFR, 87 for condos/townhouses and 193 for multi-unit properties. San Mateo County had a DUI reading of 99 for SFR's, 136 for condos/townhouses and a whopping 395 for multi-unit properties. Once again, notice that all readings were lower, hence more positive, for Santa Clara County.

> Seller Markets? -- For Santa Clara County the hottest (seller) market areas are South San Jose, East Valley (SJ), Milpitas, North Valley (SJ) and the area comprising the cities of Mountain View, Los Altos and Palo Alto. A seller's market has shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher demand by buyers with a tendency to have multiple offers and sale prices generally exceeding list prices with a potential of price appreciation.

> Buyer's Markets? -- For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Almaden Valley (SJ) and Willow Glen (SJ). Almaden Valley is my current "Best Buy" area in the county. What makes a "buyers" market is the relationship of supply to demand -- simply put as higher supply and lower demand. The characteristics of a buyer's market is a longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower demand by buyers which translates into a lower probability of multiple offers and a tendency for price stabilization or even price depreciation.

Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion or based on price levels but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).

> Median price situation -- Santa Clara County median price for SFR's has mainly remained flat to slightly nudging upwards. It now stands at $641,500, an increase of 8.1% from the same month a year ago. The median price for condos/townhouses was $330,000, a 8.6% drop from last year. San Mateo County's median price for SFR's was $675,000 and represented a 3.8% decrease from the same month a year ago. The median price for San Mateo County condo/townhouses was $380,000, a drop of 5.0% from last year. I continue to advise my clients NOT to use an entire county's median price level to decide whether to buy or sell or time the market. To formulate an effective strategy, I recommend the use of the supply-demand characteristics for the neighborhood under consideration.

> Short Shift? -- REO's (bank-owned homes) and short sale listings are termed "lender-controlled" transactions. Bottom line is that short sale homes sell but are a lot less apt to close. Here's a chart of the latest breakdown to illustrate my point:

You can see that short sales, comprise 25% of the available inventory and 35% of the pendings, only comprise 16% of the closings.

> Buyers get ready -- Last month I mentioned that buyers need to think about a time of year when there is historically less activity and a good time of the year to do that is when we approach and are in the holiday period of the year. We're seeing the inventory of available homes decrease and those homes remaining on the market, in all likelihood, have sellers that have a higher motivation to sell.

Need help with understanding the market in your area? Give me a call or email me for a no-obligation consultation and research to arm you with market intelligence to help you make a better, more-informed decision.


Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy, Realtor with RE/MAX Santa Clara Valley -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.

May Real Estate Market Highlights

Here are my observations of the most recent market actions for Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties. You are encouraged to leave your comments and questions or even update us on what you are witnessing in your neighborhood.

> Market is in turnaround mode! My recent posts have mentioned that the market activity is turning around. Well, April's activity continues to provide more evidence that we could have seen the bottom! How can this be?

• Buyers are all but tripping over each other to submit offers for homes in the more affordable areas of Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties.
  
• In Santa Clara County, there have been only four months in the past ten years where we've seen as many or more homes sold!
  
• The number of initiated AND completed sales or closings are trending upwards in Santa Clara, San Mateo and Monterey counties. Only Santa Cruz County has relatively-flat transactions. Monterey County continues setting records.
  
• The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) has improved (decreased) substantially. The DUI for single family residences in Santa Clara County for under $450,000 is an astonishing 28 which means when freezing inventory, ALL homes would sell in a month!. Anything less than 45 represents a Seller's market with market characteristics of multiple offers, high percentage selling above list price AND, price APPRECIATION.
• Median prices have increased in all four counties.
  

> Seller's Markets? -- Yes, there are! Areas of Santa Clara County experiencing a seller's market condition are: Milpitas (hottest market in Valley) East Valley (Alum Rock), North Valley, South San Jose, Santa Teresa, Blossom Valley. To refresh you, characteristics of a seller's market are fewer days on market, lower number of homes available for sale, higher probability of multiple offers with many sale prices exceeding list prices and price appreciation.

> Buyer's Markets? -- OK, yes, there are some of those too! Areas of Santa Clara County experiencing a buyer's market condition are: Mountain View, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Palo Alto, Willow Glen Los Gatos, Los Gatos Mountains, Saratoga (coolest market in Valley). To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer days on market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower probability of multiple offers with most sale prices below list prices and price depreciation.

> Mortgage Refinance Tips -- Some of you may know that I used to "do" mortgage loans and advised my clients on a couple of handy "rule-of-thumbs" as quick indicators to see if refinancing would be a financial benefit to the borrowers, not the loan officer!

• First, the rate should be more than 10% difference, obviously lower, than your current rate. That means if your currently at 5.50%, the new rate should have a rate at least 10% under this or 4.95%. (For the math, you'd subtract 10% of 5.50 or 0.55 from 5.50 to equal 4.95%.) A rate lower than this level should benefit you and amortize the costs (no free lunch!) of the loan so you can more quickly start accruing the savings AFTER the cost of doing the loan, AND
• Second, it matters most how long you plan on keeping the LOAN. If you plan a sale in a year or so, it probably does NOT make financial sense to refinance.

Finally, just about everyone knows that rates bounce all over the place so that a quote you receive one day or spot on the internet is probably gone the next. The only way you can guarantee a rate is to "lock" it in and that takes an application and commitment to a loan officer not 50 inquiries over the internet. Need a referral to a trusted loan professional? Please contact me.

> Sales per Day -- The amount of average sales per day in April reached 55.5 for Santa Clara County. The last time this figure was this high was in April 2005 when the market activity was nearing a crescendo! Inventory or the amount of available single family residences for sale has dropped 33% from the levels of April 2008. Normally, inventory levels trend higher this time of year but has been going the other way. This shows a "tightening" market and a swing toward a seller's market in many areas.

> Foreclosures up and NOD's down - How can that be? -- Recently, the San Jose Mercury News reported that the number of foreclosures rose but the number of Notice of Defaults (NOD's) issued have dropped. Remember, the moratoriums placed on banks during the holiday months? Well, there have been moratoriums in place for six of the past eight months. With those moratoriums relaxed, banks are back to foreclosing. Another artificial barrier has been the state of California where they will institute a lengthening of the process so banks have to wait about seven months instead of the current four. These governmental barriers actually prolong the pain as well as exacerbate the problems of separating those that can't make consistent mortgage payments with those who can. For current homeowners wishing to trade up or trade down, the impact on values in many neighborhoods continue.

> Median prices. Stuck at $450,000 for Santa Clara County these past few months, moved up to $470,000 in April. Median prices (the middle transaction) for an entire county are actually worthless to use as part of a strategy for buying or selling. Each area, down even to the neighborhood, has differing dynamics of supply and demand so needs to be looked at accordingly. We've observed that market mix has helped bring down median prices due to more low-priced homes closing as a percentage of total closings. We have also seen the opposite occur in 2007 when higher-priced homes sold and the lower-priced homes were engulfed with the sub-prime loan issues and didn't sell as frequently.

> Some are Hot, Some are Not -- Sales of affordably-priced homes mainly in the less than $450,000 level are HOT. On the other hand, sales of higher-priced homes are virtually dead, as some would say, in the more expensive areas. If you are considering a sale in an expensive area, you probably want to sell quickly rather than waiting but in any case check with a Realtor knowledgeable about current market conditions to guide you in positioning your home for maximum activity and price while minimizing time on market. And, if you are considering a purchase of a home in an expensive area, get ready to buy! Why, get ready? I think we'll see list prices reduced and sale prices dropping more.

> Want to sell with multiple offers? The percent of completed sales or closings with a sold price greater than list price stands at 33.4%. This level, back up a bit, means that fully one out of three sellers received more than their asking price. Oh, and another 7.7% of sellers received their full list price!

Want to hear a little secret? Some of those sellers receiving either their list price or something higher had to reduce their list prices to generate one or more offers. These figures don't calculate what the sale price to original list price ratio is but only what the current list price was at the time of sale.

> Traffic Jam! If your GPS unit has live traffic updates, it still won't be able to help with those lenders who are clogged with loan applications. With the lowest mortgage rates since the '60's continuing, the demand by borrowers trying to refinance has created an avalanche of work for the lenders. Things to remember are:

• First, rates for refinance loans average about 1/4 point higher than similar program purchase loans.
  
• Second, the process can take as much as 60-90 days as purchase loans get first priority due to the impending event of close of escrow.
  
• Third, there's no cash-out refi's as that option effectively disappeared.

> Investor's Reawaken - We've mentioned that investors have not been doing much lately with multi-unit residential properties. A couple of reasons are more stringent loan application and increased down payment requirements lenders have imposed. But, there are now 83 investor properties in escrow in Santa Clara County -- much higher than in recent months. The days of unsold inventory (DUI) for this type of property has dropped to 148 from more than triple current levels. Two-thirds of the activity is in the less than $600,000 price range.


Thanks for reading -- what are your thoughts and comments?

Holy Grail -- Watch Out!

Investors in stocks and commodities have an uncanny ability to always search for the holy grail, the magic bullet, the easy way to riches (or decisions). Lately even home buyers and real estate investors have been seen looking for one.

Only a few years ago (2001 for the expanded city list), Robert Shiller and Karl Case, economists at Yale and Wellesley, respectively, developed an index they call the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. This index computes home values for 20 major metropolitan areas around the country and conveniently boils it down to a single composite number like the price for a barrel of oil.

Shiller's and Case's purpose in this was to license the index exclusively to a firm, MacroMarkets LLC, founded by Shiller for "developing, structured and trading financial instruments" mentioned on the web site. Options and futures on the index are traded on the Chicago Merchantile Exchange (CME) to directly invest in and hedge U.S. housing.

As you may know, you can purchase options and futures contracts on virtually anything you can think of -- stocks, commodities, and yes, even indexes, like the S&P 500. There is no reason that an index on real estate prices should be left out.

The only problem is that some would-be home buyers and real estate investors are using this index (or a separate one for a metro area) as a decision tool to time the market. What's more, they even heed Shiller's forecasts calling for scary, 30% plus drops in housing prices which he told the Associated Press last month. Shiller doesn't know what prices will do and neither does anybody else.

There are a couple of flaws I see in the use of something like this to help someone make a decision. The first of which is that the index is calculated on a three-month moving average and released with a two month lag. This means that the May's report is releasing March's information. The second flaw is that using a broad-based index to make a decision for a particular community or neighborhood will likely produce an incorrect assessment and a wrong decision.

Remember the wider or broader you go in the information pool you use for real estate trend analysis, the greater the potential error you build in for a particular area under consideration. Now, I'm not an advocate of the "flying by the seat of my pants" style of analysis but am a proponent of highly-focused research into the market dynamics of the area of interest in as small an area as practical. I provide clients market intelligence information on trends, trend changes, supply and demand at the neighborhood level in order for them to make a better decision to either buy or sell.

Personally, I use indexes all the time and will even use the Case-Shiller when I want to trade the index. After all, its easy to get an indication of general stock price movements by what the Dow Jones Industrials or the NASDAQ averages did. But would you use that input to make a decision to buy or sell a particular stock? I hope not! Same goes for real estate. When I'm advising a client contemplating making a change, let's say, in Willow Glen, then I'll research Willow Glen, not use as the basis of my advice the Case-Shiller index for the entire San Francisco metropolitan area. I'm afraid it wouldn't be relevant and of much help!

In Sunnyvale, there are presently three distinct market areas and each of them pose an opportunity to understand so that the proper strategy can be applied. I wouldn't advise approaching the market in one area of Sunnyvale, for instance, with an indicator that is constructed of information related to markets in San Francisco, Oakland and Fremont.

Thanks for reading!