Silicon Valley Market Update - March

This information summary and analysis uses MLS Listings Inc. (MLS) transactional data for February 2008. For single family homes in Santa Clara County, February saw the fewest closings going back a long time! There were 423 closings in the month with 768 initiated sales (accepted offers) that indicates that closings in March will be higher. This low closings levels occurred across the board in each of the counties I track closely: Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz and Monterey.





Inventory of available homes was 4,794 up from 4,432 last month and up from 4,031 in December compared to a high of 4,925 in October 2007. We are close to an all-time high here and I wouldn't be surprised to have to report to you next time that we eclipsed the old record. Since we've had a significant number of homes come off the market in late 2007, I forecast that we'd see a rebound in inventory either in January or February as some of those homes come back on the market for another try. We did indeed see that occur and we may see even higher inventory in the months ahead as sellers who weren't able to sell their home last year will try again.





Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) or the intersection of the inventory (supply) with the recent sales level (demand), shows Santa Clara County at 186 down from 214 last month and a nice improvement from 303 in December, San Mateo County at 128 down from 161 last month, Santa Cruz County at 200, down from 274 last month, and Monterey County at 341, down from 404 last month. Clearly, even with the drops in this indicator, these still are indicating a buyer's market condition as a reading of DUI above 90 depicts. For comparison, a seller's market will have a DUI of less than 45 and a balanced market will have a DUI between the two. Keep in mind that these are county-wide averages so there is an incredible variation between those areas experiencing terrible market conditions compared to those at virtually the other extreme. As I've mentioned, real estate is local (down to the neighborhood level in some cases) and market conditions can vary within each county and even within cities by a large amount. For instance, within Santa Clara County, Mountain View, Los Altos, Palo Alto have the best market climates in the county with a DUI reading of 55, down from 61, while Morgan Hill, San Martin and Gilroy have the worst reading of 374. The following is a ranking of selected Santa Clara County cities or areas with their current DUI readings and last month's calculation in parentheses. Even though there are a lot of "improving" notations made, these areas are still in what we call a "buyer's market" and have poor market climates. Just some markets are much better off than others.

• Los Altos, Mountain View, Palo Alto - 55 (last month -61) - improving



• Cupertino - 45 (61) - improving



• Almaden Valley - 101 (129) - improving



• Los Gatos/Monte Sereno/Saratoga - 112 (134) - improving



• Campbell - 81 (79) - worsening



• Cambrian - 110 (111) - improving



• Sunnyvale - 69 (106) - improving



• Willow Glen - 137 (140) - improving



• Milpitas - 146 (141) - worsening



• North Valley - 146 (248) - improving



• Downtown SJ - 177 (242) - improving



• Evergreen - 151 (213) - improving



• South San Jose - 333 (372) - improving



• East Valley - 342 (542) - improving



• Morgan Hill, Gilroy, San Martin - 374 (440) - improving

The median price for single family homes in Santa Clara County was $785,000 down from $790,000 the same month a year ago and down from $799,000 in December. This is a decline of 9.6% from the record high reached in April 2007 of $868,400. There is still an emphasis (overweighted percentage) of higher-priced homes sold as opposed to the more affordable homes but not as pronounced as last year when the sub-prime loan problems started in February 2007. The bottom 10% median selling price was $506,000 in February a drop of 19% from the same month a year ago and the top 10% median price was $1,824,000 an increase of 19% from February of 2007. The median prices of single family homes in Morgan Hill, San Martin and Gilroy (South County) are now at the level first reached in May of 2004! All of their price appreciation has disappeared whereas the median prices in the northwest quadrant of the county including Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos, Cupertino and parts of Sunnyvale (zip 94087) are at all time highs! Median prices for single family homes by county in February 2008 were:

• Santa Clara County - $785,000 (Feb 2007 was $790,000)



• San Mateo County - $913,450 ($870,000)



• Santa Cruz County - $682,500 ($720,000)



• Monterey County - $500,000 ($657,000)

The price range with the lowest DUI is called the "sweet-spot" of the market. For February it continues to be the $1,000,000 to $2,500,000 range. Next comes the $750,000 to $1,000,000 range and then the $2,500,000 to $5,000,000 range. For condo/townhouses the picture is similar but slightly better with a DUI reading of 187 down from 216 last month. Potential real estate investment buyers take heart as the DUI picture has continued post poor numbers and stands at 520, down from 563. This means under the current rate of sales of multi-unit properties, there are about 1.4 years of supply! The "sweet-spot" of the multi-unit or investor class is the range $1,000,000 to $2,500,000. Lenders have substantially increased the borrower's minimum requirements to obtain a loan for investor property purchases AND many are not allowing the use of home equity credit lines for their downpayments so I forecast that this area will remain weak.

Why is following all these trends and statistics worth it? I believe that informed clients make the best decisions. The research and staying on top of the changes to market conditions allows me to properly advise my clients on the appropriate strategy to employ so that they make the best decision possible. This is one area I part company from other real estate agents who don't invest the time and would rather spend time working on self-promotion ads for newspapers, magazines and stuff that fill your mailbox with either "brag" cards or "spray and pray" cards. The various real estate markets are too complex for media sound-bites or headlines as they generalize too much (i.e., the national real estate market, the Bay Area real estate market, etc.) and you lose the fineness of being able to use information strategically to make better decisions.

Just today an agent was telling us he was one of 20 offers placed on a Mountain View home and all were over list price! Clearly, you need strategies to deal with these differing market conditions and an agent who is able to digest and utilize data and trends to their client's best interests.

If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to post them here or send me an email at tom.mcevoy@remax.net.

Thanks for reading!

Real Eats -- Nicolino's Italian Restaurant, Sunnyvale, CA

While waiting for the rain to end, my wife and I decided to have another of our "date" nights this month by going to another fine restaurant. We do this at least once each month where we choose a nice place to enjoy the food and ambiance that goes with it. This time, we chose Nicolino's Italian Restaurant on Reamwood in Sunnyvale.





While I've been Nicolino's for both business lunches and dinners, my wife has never been to the restaurant. She wasn't disappointed. Neither was I!





I told her about their excellent tortellini alfredo that I've had several times but to my amazement, it wasn't on the menu as either a dinner entree or appetizer. So, after getting her all excited with that, I had to move to "plan B". Order "off-menu"! And, I did order an appetizer-sized portion as a starter. It was simply delicious!





We also shared their Caprese salad which was made with alternating fresh mozzerella cheese and red-ripe tomato slices with fresh basil leaves drizzled over with olive oil and served alongside pesto sauce and roasted garlic. The surprise was that this was served with a small salad of spring mix that had an excellent balsamic vinegarette dressing on it that was marvelous.





Our dinner entrees were outstandingly presented. My wife chose off their regular menu their linguini cacciuco with plenty of different seafood selections (crab, clams, prawns) along with delicious small pieces of white fish served in a bowl of linguini with a very nice light tomato sauce. She loved it!





For my choice, I had their salmon filet entree covered with a lemon, white wine sauce with capers. The generous portion of fresh salmon was accompanied by great-tasting rice and vegetables. For a wine pairing, I chose a glass of Rodney Strong Sauvignon Blanc that went well with the entree. All of it was wonderful!





For dessert, we split a delectable gelato sampler that had hazelnut-chocolate and vanilla gelato(we asked to forego the spumoni) served with Italian cookies.





Apart from excellent food, comfortable surroundings with live music (singer with a pianist), we were treated royally by a superb server named Alfredo. When we return we will go for the food, the surroundings and definitely to see Alfredo again!





Nicolino's Italian Restaurant


1228 Reamwood Avenue


Sunnyvale, CA 94089


(408) 734-5323


http://www.nicolinosgardencafe.com/



I didn't want to end this without telling you, like me, Nicolino's is a proud member of the Sunnyvale Chamber of Commerce. www.svcoc.org

Thanks for reading!

California -- here they came

According to the Department of Finance's latest data, the state's population grew over 438,000 new residents from July 1, 2006 to July 1, 2007. That's a 1.17% increase and gave California a total of 37,771,000 people living within its borders.

The San Francisco Bay Area led the way with Santa Clara County adding 29,904 residents or 1.67%, San Francisco County adding 11,327 residents or 1.40% and Contra Costa County adding 13,189 residents or 1.28%. Notice all three growth rates exceeded California's 1.17% population increase during the period.

Of the increase in Santa Clara County, 60% of it came from natural increases (births less deaths) and 40% was from net migration. The provisional estimate of population at July 1, 2007 was 1,820,176, making Santa Clara County the sixth most populous county in California behind Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties. All of California's 58 counties gained population except for two -- Plumas and Sierra.

For a glimpse of the full report, use this link http://www.dof.ca.gov/html/DEMOGRAP/ReportsPapers/Estimates/E2/E-2_2000-07.php

Thanks for reading!

Silicon Valley Community Calendar

Here is an update to some of the events and on-going programs you might want to put on your calendar for March. These are selections from Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Mountain View, Santa Clara and other communities in Silicon Valley.

• March 1, 8: California Theatre Center presents "The Cay", 11:00am www.ctcinc.org
• March 1, 8: Sunnyvale Community Players presents "Pippin", 8:00pm, www.sunnyvaleplayers.org
• March 1, 8, 15, 22, 29: Farmer's Market, 9:00am
• March 2, 9, 16, 23, 30: Fair Oaks Toastmasters, 11:30am
• March 3: Sunnyvale Board of Library Meeting, 7:00pm
• March 5, 12, 19, 26: Kiwanis Club of Silicon Valley, 7:20am
• March 5: American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), monthly meeting, 1:30pm
• March 5: Heritage Preservation Commission Meeting, 7:00pm
• March 6: SNAIL Neighborhood Association, monthly, 7:00pm
• March 7: Heritage District Neighborhood Association, 7:30pm
• March 10, 24: Sunnyvale Planning Commission Meeting, 8:00pm
• March 10: San Miguel Neighbors Association, general meeting, 7:00pm
• March 12: Sunnyvale Parks and Recreation Commission Meeting, 7:00pm
• March 12: Lakewood Village Neighborhood Association, monthly, 7:00pm
• March 13: Wake Up Sunnyvale!, Sunnyvale Chamber of Commerce (408-736-4971) Breakfast, 7:29am, not too early for me so if you want an invite, give me a call at 408-830-0092
• March 15: Compost Workshop, 10:00am
• March 15, 22: California Theatre Center presents, "The Raven's Tale", 11:00am
• March 15: Evenings of Cultural Arts presents, Sasha Dobson, Sunnyvale Community Center, 8:00pm, 408-733-6611
• March 15: Household Hazardous Waste Drop-Off, 8:00am-1:00pm, Sunnyvale residents
• March 17: Sunnyvale Personnel Board Meeting, 5:00pm
• March 19: Sunnyvale Arts Commission Meeting, 7:00pm
• March 20: Sunnyvale Chamber of Commerce (408-736-4971) Business Mixer, 5:00pm, give me a call at 408-830-0092 if you want an invite from me
• March 20: Sunnyvale Bicycle & Pedestrian Advisory Committee Meeting, 6:30pm
• March 26: Glaucoma Support Group of the South Bay, 6:30pm
• March 26: Sunnyvale Housing and Human Services Commission Meeting, 7:00pm

• Most Tuesdays: Sunnyvale City Council Meetings, 7:00pm
• Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays: Computer and E-Waste Recycling, 8:00am-4:30pm, Cupertino proof of residency
• Every Wednesday: South Bay Community Orchestra, Noon-1:00pm for strings, 1:00-4:00pm for full orchestra
• Every Saturday: Family Astronomy Evenings, De Anza College Minolta Planetarium, 6:00pm, 7:00pm or 8:00pm
• Every Second Monday of Month: Fine Arts League of Cupertino, Quinlan Community Center, 7:00pm

Thanks for reading!

To Stage... or Not to Stage

That is a question that many sellers will ask. After reviewing television shows that tout that staging can make all the difference, they believe that this is always the way to go. But, here are a few thoughts I want to share with you on the topic.

A furnished house can be cleaned, de-cluttered and “spruced up” with plants, new matching towels, a few well-placed accessories, etc. Similarly, curb appeal can be made more attractive adding a few new flowering plants, mulch over dirt areas, and even a color bowl and new door mat on the front porch after, of course, taking care of the yard by trimming trees and bushes, mowing and edging the lawn, and yes, even power-washing the walkway and driveway to remove dirt, stains and moss.

An empty house is not very appealing to anyone unless a person has great visualization skills and can picture their belongings placed in the home. This is where staging can be helpful. However, it is not cost effective to stage every empty home. Staging may make sense for larger, more expensive homes because they can be filled with furniture and accessories without making it look too crowded. I’ve observed that smaller homes and condos that are staged are frequently done so with smaller furniture pieces, smaller beds as well as fewer pieces of it. These situations look like people would not or could not live with only the furniture used in staging (smaller beds, downsized hard-case furniture like small desks, dressers and the like). An experienced agent will point this out to their buyers and ask them to visualize their furnishings in the space. I suggest to my buyer clients that they even measure room sizes to make sure they’re not committing themselves to a major replacement of furniture for their new home.

As an advisor, it comes down to return – whether or not the projected increase in selling price will at least offset the cost of the staging. It makes more sense to either stage or partially stage a more expense home or condo than sinking some big bucks in a lower priced home. I’ve seen many homes where the amount of staging was “over the top” and cost would have, in my opinion, been a waste.

While partial or full staging can be quite expensive, I offer my clients a sensible, complimentary way to take the edge off of their empty home and that is to accessorize key areas: kitchen, baths, fireplace mantel, etc. This, in addition to a thorough cleaning, can help to make an appealing difference and help prospective buyers project themselves into the home. Conversely, accessorizing a large home is meaningless as the house just overwhelms the accessories and the accessories are lost in the space.

If you are thinking of selling and have not made a decision to work with a certain agent and would like an assessment of what things are necessary to prep the home for the market, please give me a call. I’ll arrange to stop by and offer my suggestions and advice on a complimentary basis. If we later end up working together, that’s fine. If not, that’s OK too because either way, you’ll end up with information that will help you sell your home faster.

To illustrate some of my concepts, I have included before and after photos of a master bath in a Gilroy townhouse that I sold last year.


Thanks for reading!

Real Eats -- Pezzella's Villa Napoli, Sunnyvale, CA

Standing room only! That's how it was from the time my wife and I got to Pezzella's until the time we left!

Dinner at Pezzella's is something special for us so we chose it for Valentine's Day dinner, even though we've been regular patrons for many years.

Reservations made about a week before made the experience even better as we were seated at the time we reserved and left many waiting in the lobby area. So, as with many things in life, planning ahead makes it more enjoyable.

We started off with an off-menu item -- spinach salad. One of our Pezzella's favorite, so instead of splitting a salad which we do frequently, we each ordered one! Inside tip: they often will make this delicious salad even though its not on their regular menu.

For our main courses, my wife had her favorite Red Linguine Misto with clams, prawns, and crab. "It was great" was her words! My entree was off their special Valentine's Day menu. I ordered the Petrale Sole with lemon-butter caper sauce. In addition to a very generous portion of sole, it was served with rice and grilled veggies and was outstanding.

We topped it off with a Chocolate Tartuffo (ball of gelato) coated with pistachios and cocoa and served with whipped cream. Wow!

Service was attentive but not overbearing and prices were reasonable so we continue to be pleased with the value package (excellent food, great service and reasonable prices) they present.

Pezzella's, a family-owned restaurant, has been a part of Sunnyvale for more than 50 years and greeting us last night was Pat and Margie Pezzella who are always so gracious and helpful.

To view an excellent website with lunch and dinner menus, photos of menu items and more go to www.pezzellas.com.

Pezzella’s Villa Napoli, 1025 W. El Camino Real, Sunnyvale, CA (408) 738-2400.

When you go, say "hello" to Pat and Margie!

Thanks for reading!

World class chocolates in the valley of hearts delights

You've made dinner reservations at a romantic restaurant (I did!) and you might have picked up a little something for her at her favorite store (I'm looking!) but the there's always sweets for your sweets for Valentine's Day.


Here are some world class chocolatiers from Silicon Valley to Santa Cruz:




Chocoate Dream Box

• 710 Blossom Hill Road, Los Gatos. 408-356-2626 http://www.chocolatedreambox.com/

Pictured are hand-crafted chocolates in beautiful boxes by Chocolate Dream Box

Fleur e Cocoa Patisserie Chocolaterie

39 N. Santa Cruz Avenue, Los Gatos. 408-354-3574 http://www.fleurdecocoa.com/

Pictured are selected handmade chocolates from Fleur de Cocoa

Richard Donnelly Chocolates

• 1509 Mission Street, Santa Cruz. 888-685-1871 http://www.donnellychocolates.com/

Saratoga Chocolates

• 14572-B Big Basin Way, Saratoga. 408-872-1431 http://www.saratogachocolates.com/

Schurra's Fine Confections

• 840 The Alameda, San Jose. 408-289-1562 http://www.schurrafineconfections.com/

Shokolaat

• 516 University Avenue, Palo Alto. 650-289-0719 http://www.shokolaat.com/

Sugar Butter Flour

• 669 S. Bernardo Avenue, Sunnyvale. 408-732-8597 http://www.sugarbutterflour.com/

Pictured is Dark Chocolate Ganache Truffle from Sugar Butter Flour






Happy Valentine's Day!

Thanks for reading!