October Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update

Quick Market Summary: Since mid year, we've seen the supply or inventory of homes available exceed demand in a meaningful amount since mid 2016. This has contributed to a slowing down or settling of the market, especially in Santa Clara County. This said, we still have the characteristics of a seller's market with a lot more competition from other sellers now than earlier in the year. Those that are more aggressively priced still sell relatively quickly but generate far fewer offers. In about 18 of the past 20 years, we witness a second spurt of buyer activity after the Labor Day weekend. This year it went proof! The year over year median in Santa Clara County was up 7.2% to $1,265,000 in September and in San Mateo County the median price was $1,650,000 as compared to $1,465,000 last year at this time or a gain of 12.6%. Inventories are up significantly in each county. Condo and townhouse median in Santa Clara County reached $865,000 in September compared to $720,000 last year or a jump of 20.1%. My theory is a lower price of entry into a home than a single family home. Even in this tempered environment 54.6% of homes in Santa Clara County that closed escrow in September sold for more than list price inferring multiple offers and the fourth highest rate for this time of year (last year was a record 70.4%). It was 69% in San Mateo County versus 72% last year.

At least weekly, I review the previous week's statistical and transactional data and there has been much smaller inventory increases AND the number of homes with a pending status (those with an accepted offer) have jumped. Could this be a harbinger of higher activity and a turning point? We'll see! Some buyers are now facing 5% mortgages so they may be "forced" to get off the fence or perhaps be faced purchasing a smaller home. 

Nuts and Bolts: Inventory or the amount of homes available for purchase in Santa Clara County was 1,408, up from 700 or 101% from last year. Sales (accepted offers) were an anemic 1,006 down 2.1% from the same month last year when is was 1,028.

For San Mateo County, inventory of single family residences stood at 553 in September versus 396 last year or an increase of 40%. Sales (accepted offers) were 436 compared to 414 for the same month last year or an increase of 5.3%. 

Sale price to list price ratio, an important key market condition indicator, shows that for Santa Clara County transactions completed during September, stood at 102.3% compared to last year's ratio of 105.9%.

The hottest market in Santa Clara County belongs to the Palo Alto/Los Altos market area (median price of about $3.00 million) at 105.4% which means that the average closed sale has a sale price 5.4% higher than the list price! It also registered a median days on market of just 11 which means half the inventory sells in just a bit over a week and 62% of closings sold above list price! The coolest is the South County (Morgan Hill, Gilroy, San Martin) market area (median price of about $0.91 million) with 99.8% and 83 days of unsold inventory.

Days of unsold inventory moved up a bit and stand at 49 for Santa Clara County and 44 for San Mateo County. These are substantially higher than last year's figures of 25 and 37, respectively.

San Mateo County’s overall sale price to list price ratio stands at 107.3% with the highest ratio and hottest market area is in the North (Brisbane, Colma, Daly City, Pacifica, San Bruno, South San Francisco) market area (median price of about $1.11 million) at 111.5% with a median days on market of 14. As I pointed out before, one important advantage of this area is its proximity to San Francisco and a heck of a lot less expensive to purchase or to rent! The coolest is the Coast (Half Moon Bay, El Granada, Moss Beach, Montara) market area (median price of about $1.42 million) at 99.7% with median days on the market of 83. 

As always, markets are always changing and the supply and demand in a particular area or even neighborhood can vary. If you would like specific market condition information for your area or neighborhood or a current home valuation, please feel free to call me, your RE/MAX Gold Agent! You are welcome to leave your comments or questions or contact me directly at my website. Check out and “like” my Facebook Business Page (have 775 likes – help me to reach 1,000!) or follow me on my Twitter Page.Thank you.