Here are the highlights of November's transactions and market actions for Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties. Your comments and questions are welcome. If you have an update as to what you are witnessing in your neighborhood, please don't hesitate to share with us. You may leave comments here, or contact me through my website.
> Market continues to show improvement -- March 2009 saw the trend change in Santa Clara County. Market activity has continued to display improvement for seven months and saw closings in Santa Clara County reach 899 versus an anemic 613 in November 2008 or 46% more. For some perspective, this November 2009 level of closings represents just slightly under the ten year average. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) continues to trend lower in each of the four counties without exception. This trend has been virtually uninterrupted since February 2009 and it is still more pronounced in Santa Clara and Monterey counties. Santa Clara County available homes inventory has fallen 58% from November 2008.
* The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% in Santa Clara County and stands at 100.7%, continuing an upward trend; San Mateo stands at 99.5%.
* The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to improve generally in each county for single family residences and condos/townhouses, respectively.
> Super-heated Seller's Markets? -- You bet! Blossom Valley, South San Jose, Evergreen, Santa Teresa, East Valley, Santa Clara, North Valley, Milpitas. The characteristics of a seller's market are shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher probability of multiple offers with many sale prices exceeding list prices and a tendency towards price appreciation.
> Buyer's Markets? -- For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos Mountains, Los Gatos and Saratoga. Saratoga exhibits the highest Days of Unsold Inventory in the county at 265 and is currently the "Best Buy" area in the county. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower probability of multiple offers or even an offer with most sale prices below list price. The tendency is to have price depreciation or stable prices at best case under this market condition.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion thing but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI). Additionally, this is not based on price levels but a supply-demand relationship. For instance, the higher-priced area of Palo Alto/Mountain View/Los Altos exhibits a DUI of only 64 which translates into a balanced market.
> Median prices -- Santa Clara County median prices took another jump upwards last month and now stands at $605,000 versus $593,250 or 2.0% higher from October and $515,000 or 17.5% higher over November 2008. San Mateo County's median reached $725,000 and now stands 8.9% higher than November 2008. I coach my clients to not use an entire county's median price level to decide on whether to buy or sell but use the trend information in a general manner. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics of the neighborhood, in most cases.
> Tale of Two Markets -- Sales of affordable homes in Santa Clara County less than $450,000 level have gotten even hotter than the past few months. There are just 24 days of unsold inventory for single family residences below $450,000 and 40 for homes with prices from $450,000 to $600,000. As the price ranges increase, the DUI increases in what we call a normal pattern. For Santa Clara County, high-priced homes in the $2,500,000 to $5,000,000 range showed a DUI of 206 or about seven months of supply whereas in San Mateo County showed a similar result of 150 or about five months of supply.
> Polarized Market -- Sales of higher-priced homes (above $1,000,000) are sluggish at best, depending upon area. Last month, there were just one sale of a $5+ million home in Santa Clara County (equivalent to about 3.5 years of unsold inventory!) and none in San Mateo County. With slow movements in higher-priced homes and a white-hot situation in lower-priced homes, I call this a polarized market.
> Phoenix Rising/Bay Area Falling -- Not necessarily a good thing is that the amount of homes listed for sale climbed in Phoenix and Tucson, AZ, Las Vegas, NV, Los Angeles and Orlando, FL. This according to the ZipRealty latest monthly survey.
The San Francisco Bay Area saw this number drop about 9%, exceeding all other metro areas in the country. Now, inventory usually drops every year at this time of year but the rate of decline has been greater than the average seasonal tendency.
> Sellers Be Sooner Still -- I continue to maintain my recommendation for sellers of higher-priced homes, especially those above $1 million that they should consider selling sooner and having an initially more-aggressive list price as the market usually softens when we go move into the winter/holiday season. Sellers need to be positioned properly otherwise they risk languishing on the market.
For those considering a purchase of a home in an expensive area like Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Saratoga, an opportune time for negotiating is upon us! Some motivated sellers are reducing their list prices but as you may know, not all sellers have to sell.
> Investor's Corner -- Activity continues to trend upwards as more and more investors reenter the market, many of them are completing all cash purchases, especially in the more affordable price ranges. For Santa Clara County, there were 63 sales during the month with 41 of them in the less than $600,000 price range as that price range had a DUI of just 47 whereas the DUI for residential investment properties above $600,000 jumps to nearly a year. For investors who have the ability to purchase higher-priced properties (above $1,000,000), currently there is about 1.4 years of unsold inventory. This represents a BUYER'S market as I'm sure there are at least some motivated sellers in that range!
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have or any future topics you'd like me to address.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Friday, November 20, 2009
November Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights
Here are my observations of October's transactions and market actions for Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties. You are encouraged to leave your comments and questions or even update us on what you are witnessing in your neighborhood or area.
> Market continues showing strength and improvement -- Market activity has continued to display improvement for six months! For instance, in Santa Clara County, October saw an 18% increase in closings over the same month last year. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* Buyers continue to trip over each other to submit offers for homes in the more affordable areas of Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties. Many offers submitted are for all cash or have substantial down payments. There are still only 22 days of unsold inventory on single family residences in Santa Clara County with a price of under $450,000! For those in the range of $450,000 to $600,000, there is only 33 days of unsold inventory. It is similar in San Mateo County.
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) continues to trend lower in each of the four counties without exception. This trend has been virtually uninterrupted since February 2009 and it is still more pronounced in Santa Clara and Monterey counties.
* The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% in Santa Clara County and stands at 100.8%, continuing an upward trend; San Mateo stands at 99.3%.
* The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to improve generally in each county for single family residences and condos/townhouses, respectively. Santa Clara's DUI stands at 47 and 44, San Mateo's DUI is 69 and 77, Santa Cruz's DUI is 108 and 105 and Monterey's DUI is 70 and 83.
> Super-heated Seller's Markets? -- You bet! East Valley, South San Jose, Blossom Valley, Evergreen, Santa Teresa, Santa Clara, North Valley, Milpitas. To refresh you, characteristics of a seller's market are shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher probability of multiple offers with many sale prices exceeding list prices and a tendency towards price appreciation.
> Buyer's Markets? -- For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Saratoga, Los Gatos, and Los Gatos Mountains. Los Gatos exhibits the highest Days of Unsold Inventory in the county at 141. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower probability of multiple offers or even an offer with most sale prices below list price. The tendency is to have price depreciation or stable prices at best case under this market condition.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion thing but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI). Additionally, this is not based on price levels but a supply-demand relationship. For instance, the higher-priced area of Palo Alto/Mountain View/Los Altos exhibits a DUI of only 56 which translates into a balanced market.
> Median prices -- Took another jump upwards last month median price now stands at $593,250 for Santa Clara County and $702,000 for San Mateo County. These are UP about 8% from the same month a year ago in Santa Clara County and down 1% in San Mateo Ccounty. I coach my clients to no use an entire county's median price level to decide on whether to buy or sell. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics on a much smaller area down to the neighborhood in most cases.
> Tale of Two Markets -- Sales of affordable homes in Santa Clara County less than $450,000 level have gotten even hotter than the past few months. There are just 21 days of unsold inventory for single family residences below $450,000 and 41 for homes with prices from $450,000 to $600,000. As the price ranges increase, the DUI increases in what we call a normal pattern. For Santa Clara County, high-priced homes in the $2,500,000 to $5,000,000 range showed a DUI of 242 or about eight months of supply whereas in San Mateo County showed a similar result of 192.
> Polarized Market -- Sales of higher-priced homes (above $1,000,000) are sluggish at best, depending upon area. Last month, there were no sales of $5+ million homes in Santa Clara County and just one in San Mateo County (4.2 years of unsold inventory). With slow movements in higher-priced homes and a white-hot situation in lower-priced homes, I call this a polarized market.
> Forbes Says We're Safe -- According to an article in the Silicon Valley Business Journal, Forbes Magazine reported that San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara was the 7th safest area in the country. Factors included were: violent crime, workplace fatality rates, traffic death rates and natural disaster risk. Silicon Valley was the second safest area behind the Twin Cities of Minneapolis-St. Paul.
> Sellers Be Sooner -- I continue to maintain my recommendation for sellers of higher-priced homes, especially those above $1 million that they should consider selling sooner and having an initially more-aggressive list price as the market usually softens when we go move into the holiday season. In any case, check with a Realtor knowledgeable about the technical aspects of the market conditions to guide you in positioning your home for maximum activity and price while minimizing time on market.
For those considering a purchase of a home in an expensive area like Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Saratoga, your time is getting closer! Be ready but I think we'll see list prices reduced and sale prices dropping as we get into the holiday season this year. Most years we experience more activity in the early spring and spring so the best time for a purchase is coming up soon!
> Investor's Corner -- Activity continues to trend upwards as more and more investors reenter the market, many of them are completing all cash purchases, especially in the more affordable price ranges. For Santa Clara County, there were 88 sales during the month with 47 of them in the less than $600,000 price range as that price range had a DUI of just 37 whereas the DUI for residential investment properties above $600,000 jumps to nearly a year. For investors who have the ability to purchase higher-priced properties (above $1,000,000), there is about one year of unsold inventory at current sales demand and represents a BUYER'S market as I'm sure there are at least some motivated sellers in that range.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have.
> Market continues showing strength and improvement -- Market activity has continued to display improvement for six months! For instance, in Santa Clara County, October saw an 18% increase in closings over the same month last year. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
* Buyers continue to trip over each other to submit offers for homes in the more affordable areas of Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties. Many offers submitted are for all cash or have substantial down payments. There are still only 22 days of unsold inventory on single family residences in Santa Clara County with a price of under $450,000! For those in the range of $450,000 to $600,000, there is only 33 days of unsold inventory. It is similar in San Mateo County.
* The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) continues to trend lower in each of the four counties without exception. This trend has been virtually uninterrupted since February 2009 and it is still more pronounced in Santa Clara and Monterey counties.
* The sale price to list price ratio continues above 100% in Santa Clara County and stands at 100.8%, continuing an upward trend; San Mateo stands at 99.3%.
* The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to improve generally in each county for single family residences and condos/townhouses, respectively. Santa Clara's DUI stands at 47 and 44, San Mateo's DUI is 69 and 77, Santa Cruz's DUI is 108 and 105 and Monterey's DUI is 70 and 83.
> Super-heated Seller's Markets? -- You bet! East Valley, South San Jose, Blossom Valley, Evergreen, Santa Teresa, Santa Clara, North Valley, Milpitas. To refresh you, characteristics of a seller's market are shorter time on the market, fewer number of homes available for sale, higher probability of multiple offers with many sale prices exceeding list prices and a tendency towards price appreciation.
> Buyer's Markets? -- For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Saratoga, Los Gatos, and Los Gatos Mountains. Los Gatos exhibits the highest Days of Unsold Inventory in the county at 141. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower probability of multiple offers or even an offer with most sale prices below list price. The tendency is to have price depreciation or stable prices at best case under this market condition.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion thing but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI). Additionally, this is not based on price levels but a supply-demand relationship. For instance, the higher-priced area of Palo Alto/Mountain View/Los Altos exhibits a DUI of only 56 which translates into a balanced market.
> Median prices -- Took another jump upwards last month median price now stands at $593,250 for Santa Clara County and $702,000 for San Mateo County. These are UP about 8% from the same month a year ago in Santa Clara County and down 1% in San Mateo Ccounty. I coach my clients to no use an entire county's median price level to decide on whether to buy or sell. To formulate an effective strategy, I use analysis of the supply-demand characteristics on a much smaller area down to the neighborhood in most cases.
> Tale of Two Markets -- Sales of affordable homes in Santa Clara County less than $450,000 level have gotten even hotter than the past few months. There are just 21 days of unsold inventory for single family residences below $450,000 and 41 for homes with prices from $450,000 to $600,000. As the price ranges increase, the DUI increases in what we call a normal pattern. For Santa Clara County, high-priced homes in the $2,500,000 to $5,000,000 range showed a DUI of 242 or about eight months of supply whereas in San Mateo County showed a similar result of 192.
> Polarized Market -- Sales of higher-priced homes (above $1,000,000) are sluggish at best, depending upon area. Last month, there were no sales of $5+ million homes in Santa Clara County and just one in San Mateo County (4.2 years of unsold inventory). With slow movements in higher-priced homes and a white-hot situation in lower-priced homes, I call this a polarized market.
> Forbes Says We're Safe -- According to an article in the Silicon Valley Business Journal, Forbes Magazine reported that San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara was the 7th safest area in the country. Factors included were: violent crime, workplace fatality rates, traffic death rates and natural disaster risk. Silicon Valley was the second safest area behind the Twin Cities of Minneapolis-St. Paul.
> Sellers Be Sooner -- I continue to maintain my recommendation for sellers of higher-priced homes, especially those above $1 million that they should consider selling sooner and having an initially more-aggressive list price as the market usually softens when we go move into the holiday season. In any case, check with a Realtor knowledgeable about the technical aspects of the market conditions to guide you in positioning your home for maximum activity and price while minimizing time on market.
For those considering a purchase of a home in an expensive area like Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Saratoga, your time is getting closer! Be ready but I think we'll see list prices reduced and sale prices dropping as we get into the holiday season this year. Most years we experience more activity in the early spring and spring so the best time for a purchase is coming up soon!
> Investor's Corner -- Activity continues to trend upwards as more and more investors reenter the market, many of them are completing all cash purchases, especially in the more affordable price ranges. For Santa Clara County, there were 88 sales during the month with 47 of them in the less than $600,000 price range as that price range had a DUI of just 37 whereas the DUI for residential investment properties above $600,000 jumps to nearly a year. For investors who have the ability to purchase higher-priced properties (above $1,000,000), there is about one year of unsold inventory at current sales demand and represents a BUYER'S market as I'm sure there are at least some motivated sellers in that range.
Thanks for reading my blog. I'm Tom McEvoy -- Let me know your comments, questions, observations you may have.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Tastefully Updated Birdland Sunnyvale Home with Cupertino Schools
Open House available this Saturday and Sunday, November 14 & 15
from 1:30pm to 4:30pm, sharp.
from 1:30pm to 4:30pm, sharp.
~ Established Birdland, Sunnyvale Neighborhood Home with Cupertino Schools ~
Beautiful hardwood floors highlight this tastefully-updated Lindsey home with expanded master suite, kitchen and bathrooms. Kitchen was extensively remodeled and offers expansive, Corian counter tops, upgraded cabinetry and top built-in appliances. Living room can be used as dining room. Step-down family room with gas fireplace and wet bar opens to patio with wood deck and spa — great for family gatherings. Recent upgrades include 40-year roof, gutters/downspouts, and fresh exterior paint. Stocklmeir Elementary, Cupertino Middle, Fremont High School.
Take a Virtual Tour and see more Slides
If you have any questions or comments, please contact me, Tom McEvoy, Realtor at 408-830-0092 or by leaving your comment here.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
October Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights
Here are my observations of September's transactions and market actions for Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties. You are encouraged to leave your comments and questions or even update us on what you are witnessing in your neighborhood or area.
> Market continues showing strength and improvment -- Market activity has continued to display improvement for five months. For instance, in Santa Clara County, September saw an 18% increase in closings over the same month last year. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
> Buyer's Markets? -- For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos, Los Gatos Mountains with Saratoga the market that exhibits the highest Days of Unsold Inventory at 155. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower probability of multiple offers or even an offer with most sale prices below list price. The tendency is to have price depreciation or stable prices at best case under this market condition.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion thing but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI). This is not a price thing but a supply-demand thing. For instance, higher-priced area of Palo Alto/Mountain View/Los Altos exhibits a DUI of only 64 which translates into a balanced market.
> Median prices. Up sharply since March but declined from $590,000 last month, it stands at $565,000 for Santa Clara County, $699,250 for San Mateo County. These are down about 6% from the same month a year ago in Santa Clara County and down 7% in San Mateo Ccounty. An entire county's median price level should not be used to decide on whether to buy or sell. I recommend you work with a real estate advisor who can complete an analysis on a much smaller area (as small as a neighborhood!) to form the basis of a strategy.
> Tale of Two Markets -- Sales of affordable homes in Santa Clara County less than $450,000 level have gotten even hotter than the past few months. There are just 22 days of unsold inventory for single family residences below $450,000 and 33 for homes with prices from $450,000 to $600,000. As the price ranges increase, the DUI increases. For Santa Clara County, high-priced homes in the $2,500,000 to $5,000,000 range showed a DUI of 341 or almost one year of inventory whereas in San Mateo County showed a similar result of 331!
> Polarized Market -- Sales of higher-priced homes (above $1,000,000) are sluggish at best, depending upon area. Last month, we had one sale of a $5+ million home in Santa Clara County (4.3 years of unsold inventory!) and just two in San Mateo County (2.0 years of unsold inventory). With slow movements in higher-priced homes and a white-hot situation in lower-priced homes, I call this a polarized market.
> TFT PDQ -- A "TFT" stands for Transaction Fallen Through and has occurred much more frequently of late and is especially evident in short or bank-owned transactions which we call "lender-controlled" transactions. Many buyers walk away from short sales due to their extremely long escrows lasting months as banks sit on paperwork and do not make decisions in a timely manner. So, the short sale listing sells again and again, in many circumstances but does not close. For this reason, I advise buyers to steer away from short sales.
Lender-controlled transactions accounted for 43% of the closings last month in Santa Clara County. We're far better off. Monterey County saw 72% of their closings made up of lender-controlled transactions (short sales and bank-owned). I have anecdotal evidence that in some Central Valley locations the percentage is 90%!
> Sellers Be Sooner -- I continue to maintain my recommendation for sellers of higher-priced homes that they should consider selling sooner and having an initially more-aggressive list price as the market usually softens when we go move into the fall and the holiday season. In any case, check with a Realtor knowledgeable about the technical aspects of the market conditions to guide you in positioning your home for maximum activity and price while minimizing time on market.
For those considering a purchase of a home in an expensive area like Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Saratoga, your time is getting closer! Be ready but I think we'll see list prices reduced and sale prices dropping as we get into the holiday season this year. Most years we experience more activity in the early spring and spring so the best time for a purchase is coming up soon!
> Investor's Corner -- Activity continues to trend upwards as more and more investors reenter the market. For Santa Clara County, there were 71 sales during the month with 52 of them in the less than $600,000 price range as that price range had a DUI of just 40 whereas the DUI for residential investment properties above $600,000 jumps to nearly a year. For investors able to purchase higher-priced properties, there is about one year of unsold inventory at current sales demand with at least some motivated sellers.
Thanks for reading Tom McEvoy's Blog -- what are your thoughts, comments, questions, observations?
> Market continues showing strength and improvment -- Market activity has continued to display improvement for five months. For instance, in Santa Clara County, September saw an 18% increase in closings over the same month last year. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
- Buyers continue to trip over each other to submit offers for homes in the more affordable areas of Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties. Many offers submitted are for all cash or have substantial down payments. There are still only 22 days of unsold inventory on single family residences in Santa Clara County with a price of under $450,000! For those in the range of $450,000 to $600,000, there is only 33 days of unsold inventory. It is similar in San Mateo County.
- The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) continues to trend lower in each of the four counties without exception. The lower trend is still more pronounced in Santa Clara and Monterey counties.
- The sale price to list price ratio is above 100% in Santa Clara County and stands at 101.2%, continuing an upward trend; San Mateo stands at 99.8%.
- The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to improve generally in each county for single family residences and condos/townhouses, respectively. Santa Clara's DUI stands at 49 and 42, San Mateo's DUI is 71 and 73, Santa Cruz's DUI is 107 and 154 and Monterey's DUI is 66 and 91.
> Buyer's Markets? -- For Santa Clara County, we see buyer's markets in Los Gatos, Los Gatos Mountains with Saratoga the market that exhibits the highest Days of Unsold Inventory at 155. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower probability of multiple offers or even an offer with most sale prices below list price. The tendency is to have price depreciation or stable prices at best case under this market condition.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion thing but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI). This is not a price thing but a supply-demand thing. For instance, higher-priced area of Palo Alto/Mountain View/Los Altos exhibits a DUI of only 64 which translates into a balanced market.
> Median prices. Up sharply since March but declined from $590,000 last month, it stands at $565,000 for Santa Clara County, $699,250 for San Mateo County. These are down about 6% from the same month a year ago in Santa Clara County and down 7% in San Mateo Ccounty. An entire county's median price level should not be used to decide on whether to buy or sell. I recommend you work with a real estate advisor who can complete an analysis on a much smaller area (as small as a neighborhood!) to form the basis of a strategy.
> Tale of Two Markets -- Sales of affordable homes in Santa Clara County less than $450,000 level have gotten even hotter than the past few months. There are just 22 days of unsold inventory for single family residences below $450,000 and 33 for homes with prices from $450,000 to $600,000. As the price ranges increase, the DUI increases. For Santa Clara County, high-priced homes in the $2,500,000 to $5,000,000 range showed a DUI of 341 or almost one year of inventory whereas in San Mateo County showed a similar result of 331!
> Polarized Market -- Sales of higher-priced homes (above $1,000,000) are sluggish at best, depending upon area. Last month, we had one sale of a $5+ million home in Santa Clara County (4.3 years of unsold inventory!) and just two in San Mateo County (2.0 years of unsold inventory). With slow movements in higher-priced homes and a white-hot situation in lower-priced homes, I call this a polarized market.
> TFT PDQ -- A "TFT" stands for Transaction Fallen Through and has occurred much more frequently of late and is especially evident in short or bank-owned transactions which we call "lender-controlled" transactions. Many buyers walk away from short sales due to their extremely long escrows lasting months as banks sit on paperwork and do not make decisions in a timely manner. So, the short sale listing sells again and again, in many circumstances but does not close. For this reason, I advise buyers to steer away from short sales.
Lender-controlled transactions accounted for 43% of the closings last month in Santa Clara County. We're far better off. Monterey County saw 72% of their closings made up of lender-controlled transactions (short sales and bank-owned). I have anecdotal evidence that in some Central Valley locations the percentage is 90%!
> Sellers Be Sooner -- I continue to maintain my recommendation for sellers of higher-priced homes that they should consider selling sooner and having an initially more-aggressive list price as the market usually softens when we go move into the fall and the holiday season. In any case, check with a Realtor knowledgeable about the technical aspects of the market conditions to guide you in positioning your home for maximum activity and price while minimizing time on market.
For those considering a purchase of a home in an expensive area like Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Saratoga, your time is getting closer! Be ready but I think we'll see list prices reduced and sale prices dropping as we get into the holiday season this year. Most years we experience more activity in the early spring and spring so the best time for a purchase is coming up soon!
> Investor's Corner -- Activity continues to trend upwards as more and more investors reenter the market. For Santa Clara County, there were 71 sales during the month with 52 of them in the less than $600,000 price range as that price range had a DUI of just 40 whereas the DUI for residential investment properties above $600,000 jumps to nearly a year. For investors able to purchase higher-priced properties, there is about one year of unsold inventory at current sales demand with at least some motivated sellers.
Thanks for reading Tom McEvoy's Blog -- what are your thoughts, comments, questions, observations?
Friday, September 25, 2009
Robbing the Bank to Pay Back the Bank!
Wow, a 69-yr old robs San Diego bank to pay for his 17% mortgage! The authorities should round up the loan officer, strip him of his license, place him in the clink and throw away the key! Seniors beware -- a lot of crooks are after you (us!). Work with someone you know AND trust.
Click on the link to view the source newscast but we here in Silicon Valley were not insulated from some of these crooks in the real estate and lending business who looked out for themselves and didn't place their client's best interest first and foremost. Some loan officers, many working for unscrupulous mortgage brokers, placed unsophisticated and unsuspecting borrowers into weird loans with prepayment penalties and the like to earn huge fees at the expense of the borrowers.Probably most of the borrowers that were trapped by these crooks were not seniors but I think it is even more egregious when a senior is the victim.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
September Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Highlights
Here are my observations of August's transactions and market actions for Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties. You are encouraged to leave your comments and questions or even update us on what you are witnessing in your neighborhood or area.
> Market continues showing improvment -- Market activity continues to display improvement, something that we've been saying for the past four months. For instance, in Santa Clara County, July saw a 38% increase in closings over the same month last year. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
> Buyer's Markets? -- Far fewer than in the past, there are some buyer's markets located in Santa Clara County in Saratoga, Los Gatos and Los Gatos Mountains. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower probability of multiple offers or even an offer with most sale prices below list price. The tendency is to have price depreciation under this market condition.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion thing but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).
> Median prices. Up sharply since March but declined from $590,000 last month, it stands at $560,000 for Santa Clara County, $685,000 for San Mateo County. These are down 14% from the same month a year ago in each county. An entire county's median price level should not be used to decide on whether to buy or sell. I recommend your real estate advisor complete an analysis on a much smaller area (as small as a neighborhood!) to form the basis of a strategy.
> Tale of Two Markets -- Sales of affordable homes in Santa Clara County less than $450,000 level have gotten even hotter than the past few months. There are just 20 days of unsold inventory for single family residences below $450,000 and 39 for homes with prices from $450,000 to $600,000. As the price ranges increase, the DUI increases. For Santa Clara County, high-priced homes in the $2,500,000 to $5,000,000 range ended with a DUI of 359 or almost one year of inventory whereas in San Mateo County ended with a DUI of 222!
However, sales of higher-priced homes (above $1,000,000) are sluggish at best. For instance, we continue to have no sales of $5+ million homes in the last five weeks in Santa Clara County and just six in San Mateo County.
> Sellers Be Sooner -- I continue to maintain my recommendation for sellers of higher-priced homes that they should consider selling sooner and having an initially more-aggressive list price as the market usually softens when we go deeper into the late summer and into fall. In any case, check with a Realtor knowledgeable about the technical aspects of the market conditions to guide you in positioning your home for maximum activity and price while minimizing time on market. .
For those considering a purchase of a home in an expensive area like Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Saratoga, your time is getting closer! Be ready but I think we'll see list prices reduced and sale prices dropping as we get closer to the holiday season this year.
> Investor's Corner -- Activity continues to trend upwards as more and more investors reenter the market. For Santa Clara County, there were 71 sales during the month with 40 of them in the less than $600,000 price range as that price range had a DUI of just 59 whereas the DUI for residential investment properties above $1,000,000 showed more than one and a half years supply at current sales demand.
Thanks for reading Tom McEvoy's Blog -- what are your thoughts, comments, questions, observations?
> Market continues showing improvment -- Market activity continues to display improvement, something that we've been saying for the past four months. For instance, in Santa Clara County, July saw a 38% increase in closings over the same month last year. My analysis of the transactional information reveals:
- Buyers continue to trip over each other to submit offers for homes in the more affordable areas of Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties. Many offers submitted are for all cash or have substantial down payments. There are still only 20 days of unsold inventory on single family residences in Santa Clara County with a price of under $450,000.
- The supply of homes available for sale (inventory) continues to trend lower in each of the four counties without exception. The lower trend is more pronounced in Santa Clara and Monterey counties.
- The number of closings have turned are now lower in each county as the seasonality takes hold as we see less closings in the late summer after a peak around Memorial Day.
- The Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI) continues to improve generally in each county for single family residences and condos/townhouses, respectively. Santa Clara's DUI stands at 51 and 42, San Mateo's DUI is 74 and 70, Santa Cruz's DUI is 97 and 105 and Monterey's DUI is 65 and 80.
> Buyer's Markets? -- Far fewer than in the past, there are some buyer's markets located in Santa Clara County in Saratoga, Los Gatos and Los Gatos Mountains. To refresh you, characteristics of a buyer's market are longer time on the market, higher number of homes available for sale, lower probability of multiple offers or even an offer with most sale prices below list price. The tendency is to have price depreciation under this market condition.
Where do I get "Seller's" and "Buyer's" market information? This is not an opinion thing but a calculation I make using the number of homes for sale (supply) and the number of sales (demand) in the prior month which results in days of unsold inventory (DUI).
> Median prices. Up sharply since March but declined from $590,000 last month, it stands at $560,000 for Santa Clara County, $685,000 for San Mateo County. These are down 14% from the same month a year ago in each county. An entire county's median price level should not be used to decide on whether to buy or sell. I recommend your real estate advisor complete an analysis on a much smaller area (as small as a neighborhood!) to form the basis of a strategy.
> Tale of Two Markets -- Sales of affordable homes in Santa Clara County less than $450,000 level have gotten even hotter than the past few months. There are just 20 days of unsold inventory for single family residences below $450,000 and 39 for homes with prices from $450,000 to $600,000. As the price ranges increase, the DUI increases. For Santa Clara County, high-priced homes in the $2,500,000 to $5,000,000 range ended with a DUI of 359 or almost one year of inventory whereas in San Mateo County ended with a DUI of 222!
However, sales of higher-priced homes (above $1,000,000) are sluggish at best. For instance, we continue to have no sales of $5+ million homes in the last five weeks in Santa Clara County and just six in San Mateo County.
> Sellers Be Sooner -- I continue to maintain my recommendation for sellers of higher-priced homes that they should consider selling sooner and having an initially more-aggressive list price as the market usually softens when we go deeper into the late summer and into fall. In any case, check with a Realtor knowledgeable about the technical aspects of the market conditions to guide you in positioning your home for maximum activity and price while minimizing time on market. .
For those considering a purchase of a home in an expensive area like Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Saratoga, your time is getting closer! Be ready but I think we'll see list prices reduced and sale prices dropping as we get closer to the holiday season this year.
> Investor's Corner -- Activity continues to trend upwards as more and more investors reenter the market. For Santa Clara County, there were 71 sales during the month with 40 of them in the less than $600,000 price range as that price range had a DUI of just 59 whereas the DUI for residential investment properties above $1,000,000 showed more than one and a half years supply at current sales demand.
Thanks for reading Tom McEvoy's Blog -- what are your thoughts, comments, questions, observations?
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